March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State
Florida Atlantic Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Johnell Davis |
14.4 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
21.2 |
16.0 |
22.9 |
1.3 |
3.1 |
| Alijah Martin |
11.9 |
5.7 |
1.3 |
17.6 |
13.2 |
18.9 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
| Vladislav Goldin |
10.4 |
8.0 |
0.4 |
18.4 |
10.8 |
18.8 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
| Nick Boyd |
7.0 |
4.1 |
1.9 |
11.1 |
8.9 |
13.0 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| Michael Forrest |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
6.0 |
5.4 |
6.9 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
| Bryan Greenlee |
5.8 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
8.1 |
7.5 |
9.8 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Giancarlo Rosado |
3.7 |
2.8 |
0.9 |
6.5 |
4.6 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Brandon Weatherspoon |
4.4 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
6.7 |
5.1 |
7.5 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
| Jalen Gaffney |
3.1 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
7.2 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| Tre Carroll |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Gaines |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brenen Lorient |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alejandro Ralat |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Matt Bradley |
9.8 |
3.3 |
1.1 |
13.1 |
10.9 |
14.2 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
| Darrion Trammell |
9.9 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
12.5 |
12.0 |
14.7 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
| Lamont Butler |
8.6 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
11.5 |
10.8 |
13.8 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
| Jaedon Ledee |
7.7 |
5.7 |
0.7 |
13.4 |
8.4 |
14.1 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
| Micah Parrish |
7.0 |
3.6 |
0.4 |
10.6 |
7.4 |
11.0 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
| Keshad Johnson |
8.1 |
5.8 |
0.5 |
13.9 |
8.5 |
14.4 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| Nathan Mensah |
5.5 |
6.0 |
0.4 |
11.5 |
5.9 |
11.9 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
| Adam Seiko |
5.9 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
7.3 |
6.4 |
7.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| Aguek Arop |
4.2 |
3.0 |
0.5 |
7.2 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Miles Byrd |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Saunders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demarshay Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Alger |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jared Barnett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Triston Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Florida Atlantic
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Vladislav Goldin Over 15.5 PRAs |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
UB |
| Bryan Greenlee Under 7.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
FD |
| Johnell Davis Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Alijah Martin Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
San Diego State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Micah Parrish Under 12.5 PRAs |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Micah Parrish Under 3.5 Rebounds |
130 |
1 |
1.3 |
MGM |
| Matt Bradley Under 18.5 PRAs |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
UB |
| Lamont Butler |
-152 |
1.52 |
1 |
FD |
| Matt Bradley Under 12.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Keshad Johnson Over 7.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
FD |
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