March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Furman vs. San Diego State
Furman Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Mike Bothwell |
13.6 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
16.7 |
15.8 |
18.9 |
1.1 |
3.5 |
| Jalen Slawson |
13.4 |
7.2 |
2.7 |
20.7 |
16.1 |
23.4 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
| JP Pegues |
10.0 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
13.7 |
13.2 |
16.9 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
| Marcus Foster |
9.6 |
5.5 |
1.0 |
15.1 |
10.6 |
16.1 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
| Garrett Hien |
6.8 |
4.1 |
1.4 |
10.9 |
8.2 |
12.3 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
| Ben VanderWal |
4.2 |
3.1 |
0.3 |
7.3 |
4.5 |
7.7 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
| Alex Williams |
5.4 |
3.0 |
0.5 |
8.4 |
5.9 |
9.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
| Tyrese Hughey |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Carter Whitt |
1.5 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
| Joe Anderson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jonny Lawrence |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Rett Lister |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Blake Harris |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Matt Bradley |
12.5 |
3.8 |
1.8 |
16.3 |
14.2 |
18.1 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
| Darrion Trammell |
9.0 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
11.1 |
11.8 |
13.9 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
| Lamont Butler |
9.2 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
12.1 |
12.3 |
15.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
| Jaedon Ledee |
8.7 |
5.9 |
1.0 |
14.6 |
9.7 |
15.6 |
0.0 |
2.7 |
| Keshad Johnson |
8.2 |
5.7 |
0.6 |
14.0 |
8.8 |
14.5 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| Micah Parrish |
8.4 |
3.9 |
0.6 |
12.3 |
9.0 |
12.9 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
| Nathan Mensah |
5.0 |
4.9 |
0.4 |
9.9 |
5.4 |
10.4 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
| Adam Seiko |
5.6 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
6.9 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| Aguek Arop |
4.8 |
3.1 |
0.8 |
7.9 |
5.5 |
8.7 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
| Miles Byrd |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Saunders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demarshay Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Alger |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jared Barnett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Triston Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Furman vs. San Diego State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Furman
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jalen Swanson Over 19.5 PRAs |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
UB |
| JP Pegues Under 11.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
FD |
San Diego State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Lamont Butler Under 3.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
MGM |
| Keshad Johnson Over 7.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
FD |
| Darrion Trammell Over 2.5 Assists |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Matt Bradley Over 1.5 Assists |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 2 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 2 Betting Picks & Predictions
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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