March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Gonzaga vs. UCLA
Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Drew Timme |
18.2 |
7.7 |
2.7 |
25.9 |
20.9 |
28.6 |
0.1 |
3.6 |
| Julian Strawther |
13.8 |
6.7 |
1.2 |
20.6 |
15.1 |
21.8 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
| Anton Watson |
11.2 |
7.4 |
2.4 |
18.6 |
13.6 |
21.0 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
| Rasir Bolton |
8.4 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
12.3 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
| Malachi Smith |
6.1 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
9.3 |
7.1 |
10.3 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
| Nolan Hickman |
6.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
9.2 |
9.2 |
11.7 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
| Ben Gregg |
4.0 |
2.8 |
0.5 |
6.8 |
4.5 |
7.3 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
| Hunter Sallis |
3.3 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
6.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
| Efton Reid |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colby Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dominick Harris |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Abe Eagle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UCLA Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Jaime Jaquez |
19.6 |
9.8 |
2.2 |
29.3 |
21.8 |
31.6 |
1.1 |
2.7 |
| Tyger Campbell |
15.5 |
3.2 |
4.9 |
18.8 |
20.4 |
23.6 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
| Jaylen Clark |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| David Singleton |
10.4 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
13.7 |
11.4 |
14.8 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
| Amari Bailey |
14.3 |
5.3 |
2.5 |
19.6 |
16.8 |
22.1 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
| Adem Bona |
6.7 |
4.9 |
0.5 |
11.7 |
7.3 |
12.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
| Dylan Andrews |
4.2 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
6.8 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
| Kenneth Nwuba |
2.1 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
5.0 |
2.6 |
5.5 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Mac Etienne |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Abramo Canka |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Will McClendon |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Russell Stong |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Manjikian |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Logan Cremonesi |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Gonzaga vs. UCLA Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Gonzaga
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Julian Strawther Over 5.5 Rebounds |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Anton Watson Under 3.5 Assists |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
FD |
| Rasir Bolton Under 9.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Drew Timme Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-140 |
1.4 |
1 |
MGM |
UCLA
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Amari Bailey Under 1.5 3Ps |
107 |
1 |
1.07 |
UB |
| Amari Bailey Under 3.5 Assists |
108 |
1 |
1.08 |
FD |
| Jaime Jaquez Over 1.5 Assists |
-137 |
1.37 |
1 |
UB |
| Tyger Campbell Over 1.5 3Ps |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
DK |
| Adem Bona Over 0.5 Assists |
130 |
1 |
1.3 |
MGM |
| David Singleton Over 9.5 |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
FD |
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More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Sweet 16 Betting Picks & Predictions (Thursday)
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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