March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga
Grand Canyon Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Rayshon Harrison |
17.9 |
4.5 |
3.4 |
22.4 |
21.3 |
25.8 |
1.5 |
4.6 |
| Gabe McGlothan |
12.3 |
8.2 |
0.8 |
20.5 |
13.1 |
21.3 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
| Chance McMillian |
11.7 |
3.7 |
2.1 |
15.4 |
13.8 |
17.6 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
| Noah Baumann |
7.0 |
3.6 |
0.6 |
10.5 |
7.6 |
11.1 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
| Josh Baker |
2.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Kobe Knox |
5.8 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
7.8 |
7.0 |
9.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| Walter Ellis |
7.2 |
3.8 |
0.9 |
11.0 |
8.2 |
11.9 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
| Yvan Ouedraogo |
5.2 |
6.4 |
0.4 |
11.6 |
5.6 |
12.0 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
| Jovan Blacksher |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Aidan Igiehon |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Shaw |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Logan Landers |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Carr |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Drew Timme |
20.3 |
7.5 |
2.6 |
27.8 |
22.9 |
30.4 |
0.0 |
4.5 |
| Julian Strawther |
15.0 |
6.2 |
1.1 |
21.2 |
16.1 |
22.3 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
| Anton Watson |
11.7 |
6.3 |
2.0 |
18.0 |
13.7 |
20.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
| Rasir Bolton |
9.2 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
12.9 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
| Malachi Smith |
9.0 |
3.9 |
1.3 |
12.9 |
10.2 |
14.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
| Nolan Hickman |
7.9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
10.4 |
10.5 |
13.0 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Ben Gregg |
6.7 |
4.0 |
0.8 |
10.7 |
7.5 |
11.5 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
| Hunter Sallis |
4.5 |
2.3 |
1.2 |
6.8 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
| Efton Reid |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Colby Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dominick Harris |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Abe Eagle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Grand Canyon
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Gabe McGlothan Under 1.5 3Ps |
-145 |
1.45 |
1 |
DK |
| Gabe McGlothan Under 14.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
MGM |
| Ray Harrison Under 4.5 Assists |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Noah Baumann Under 10.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
FD |
Gonzaga
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Julian Strawther Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Drew Timme Over 2.5 Assists |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
MGM |
| Julian Strawther Under 1.5 Assists |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
UB |
| Nolan Hickman Under 1.5 3Ps |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Nolan Hickman Under 9.5 Points |
-128 |
1.28 |
1 |
FD |
| Anton Watson Under 2.5 Assists |
-107 |
1.07 |
1 |
CZR |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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