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The rise in popularity of the UFC and MMA, in general, has come at the expense of boxing. What was once the world’s most popular sport is now having trouble showcasing intriguing enough matches at many weight classes. However, though the sport is not as talked about does not mean there are any fewer opportunities for wagering.
In this article, we discuss five of the best tips and strategies to increase your profits when betting on boxing.
What Research is the Best Research?
No matter the sport, one should always do adequate research before making a sports bet. For the sport of boxing, what research is the best kind of research?
Novice bettors will simply look at the records of the two opponents and decide on a wager based on that. However, this does not tell the whole story as one should also factor in the quality of opponents faced. In addition, how long has the fighter been boxing in their current weight class?
Suggesting bettors watch every fight a boxer has fought may seem like too much to ask. However, in today’s day and age with highlights of fights on platforms like YouTube everywhere, it is not as hard as one would think. Study these fighters and their opponents, learn their tendencies, and formulate a theory with your own eyes about how the fight between them will play out.
In addition, certain statistics are very telling when it comes to predicting how a match will be determined. There are many ways one can research the number of punches a boxer throws and lands. Typically, the more active fighter wins matches. Thus, look for stats on who throws and lands more power punches and jabs.
Calculate Implied Probabilities
The first numbers a bettor will see when looking at boxing odds are the moneyline odds for each fighter. If a fight is considered a mismatch, the favorite might have odds of -400 or greater. For even the most experienced bettors, these steep odds are too intimidating and not worth the risk.
Before you dismiss an expensive moneyline as not worth it or something you cannot afford, convert these odds into probabilities. Using mmabettingtips.com’s implied probability calculator, one can see how a fighter’s moneyline odds equate to their chances of winning.
A moneyline of -500 means that the fighter’s implied probability to win the fight is 83.33%. If you think the fighter’s chances of winning are greater, you are actually getting good value by betting their moneyline.
If the Moneyline is too Steep, Look at Prop Bets
No matter how good a moneyline’s value may appear, if the number is too big it will scare bettors away. Instead of dismissing the fight altogether, one can always take a look at the prop bets available.
There are many prop bets that won’t appear to “break the bank.” One can wager on a predetermined over/under amount of rounds the fight will last. Depending on how close the fight is perceived to be, one can usually find decent odds on if the fight will go the distance or not. For the most popular fights, one can even bet if a fighter will get knocked down or not.
Bet Big Favorites to Win by KO
Another way one can get action on a fight that has a very steep moneyline is to wager on the heavy favorite to win by knockout. If a fighter is considered to be that big of a favorite, ask yourself why are the odds so much in their favor? Are they really going to win a fight they are favored by that much by a decision, or will they exert their dominance and knock their opponent out?
Betting a fighter to win by a knockout will always result in much better odds since you are picking a specific action. Fighters that have odds of -500 to win outright might have odds closer to -150 or better to win by knockout. Even better payouts are available if you wager on the specific round the fight will end, but that is much harder to predict. This thought leads us to our last tip.
Some Props are Sucker Bets
Many bettors will be tantalized by props that have odds of +2000 or greater. Picking the exact round a fighter will win is an example of a prop with massive payouts. However, these props have big payouts for a reason since they are increasingly difficult to handicap.
One may be able to use past fights to determine a range of expectations for how long the fight will play last. However, there is no exact science for accurately predicting something like the exact round a fight will end.
If one is intent on making such a bet, I would recommend hedging these bets with multiple smaller wagers. For example, one could bet their fighter to win in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds. If any of these outcomes were to happen, they would be looking at a nice payday. However, one should still calculate if the risk of these smaller bets is worth eschewing a safer moneyline bet at steeper odds.