March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Kent State vs. Indiana
Kent State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Sincere Carry |
16.1 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
20.1 |
20.3 |
24.3 |
1.9 |
3.4 |
| Malique Jacobs |
12.3 |
5.9 |
3.3 |
18.2 |
15.6 |
21.4 |
0.6 |
3.4 |
| Miryne Thomas |
11.2 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
18.0 |
12.0 |
18.8 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
| Jalen Sullinger |
10.2 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
12.1 |
11.0 |
12.9 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
| Voncameron Davis |
4.8 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
7.8 |
5.1 |
8.1 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
| Chris Payton |
6.9 |
6.0 |
0.4 |
12.8 |
7.3 |
13.2 |
0.0 |
1.7 |
| Cli’Ron Hornbeak |
5.4 |
5.7 |
0.3 |
11.2 |
5.7 |
11.4 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Giovanni Santiago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Delrecco Gillespie |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Julius Rollins |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Akeem Odusipe |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Indiana Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis |
21.8 |
12.8 |
4.1 |
34.6 |
25.8 |
38.7 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino |
15.1 |
5.1 |
3.9 |
20.2 |
19.0 |
24.1 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
| Miller Kopp |
8.5 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
11.5 |
9.7 |
12.7 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
| Race Thompson |
8.0 |
5.7 |
1.0 |
13.6 |
9.0 |
14.6 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
| Tamar Bates |
6.5 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
8.2 |
7.6 |
9.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
| Malik Reneau |
6.2 |
4.2 |
0.7 |
10.4 |
6.9 |
11.1 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
| Trey Galloway |
6.2 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
9.3 |
7.9 |
11.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
| Jordan Geronimo |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Xavier Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kaleb Banks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| CJ Gunn |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Logan Duncomb |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Anthony Leal |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Shaan Burke |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nathan Childress |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Hogan Orbaugh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Shipp |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kent State vs. Indiana Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Kent State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Miryne Thomas Over 8.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
UB |
| Miryne Thomas Under 1.5 Assists |
-200 |
1 |
0.5 |
MGM |
| Jalen Sullinger Over 8.5 Points |
104 |
1 |
1.04 |
FD |
Indiana
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino Over 2.5 Assists |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
UB |
| Miller Kopp Over 1.5 3Ps |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino Over 20.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis Under 4.5 Assists |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
UB |
| Race Thompson Over 7.5 Points |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
FD |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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