I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my tight end projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.
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- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
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Some notes on my projections and process:
I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my tight end projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.
Free Content
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
Premium Content
Some notes on my projections and process:
- I recommend betting unders in the season-long prop market, not overs. In other words, don't bet a whole bunch of overs just because my projections point in that direction. That would be a bad idea. I touch more on unders vs. overs in my overall guide to betting 2022 NFL season-long player props.
- My projections are not the official BettingPros or FantasyPros projections, which are entirely independent from mine. These are just my pseudo-random projections. For the official BettingPros projections, see our season-long prop bet cheat sheet, which compares our projections with the current lines in the market to highlight the props that offer the most value. It's a great tool. For the official FantasyPros projections, check out our season-long consensus projections page, which provides statistical forecasts for almost every skill-position player in the league.
- My projections are solely to help me - and now you - navigate the season-long prop market. That's it. I wouldn't use them for making draft decisions in fantasy football, where it makes more sense to focus on upside than median outcome. For the prop market, though, the median is what matters most.
- With the prop market in mind, I know that I don't need these projections to be perfect, so I haven't tried to make them perfect. I just need them to be good enough to be directionally correct. In other words, I won't be obsessively updating these projections every day.
- The season-long prop market is not overwhelmingly robust. You can find hundreds of wagers to make, but very few of them are for players who aren't relevant in fantasy. You won't find props for No. 2 quarterbacks, most No. 2 running backs, many Nos. 2-3 wide receivers and even some No. 1 tight ends. As a result, I don't care much about being accurate with those players. I'm not ignoring their projections, but I'm also not investing extra time into working out the nuances of their projections. That would be a -EV (expected value) use of my time, especially since I can't bet into any market to profit from my work.
2022 Season-Long NFL Tight End Projections
Projections updated as of Aug. 22
| Player |
Rec |
ReYd |
ReTD |
RuYd |
RuTD |
| Travis Kelce |
91.2 |
1103.8 |
8.2 |
6.2 |
0.1 |
| Mark Andrews |
84.6 |
1044.7 |
8.2 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
| Kyle Pitts |
71.8 |
998.0 |
4.4 |
9.6 |
0.1 |
| George Kittle |
71.9 |
891.1 |
5.3 |
7.8 |
0.0 |
| Darren Waller |
72.4 |
874.2 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dalton Schultz |
70.9 |
719.9 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dallas Goedert |
58.2 |
708.4 |
4.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson |
68.6 |
691.1 |
4.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Ertz |
61.3 |
633.0 |
4.4 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
| Mike Gesicki |
56.8 |
626.3 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Kmet |
59.6 |
607.4 |
3.4 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
| Dawson Knox |
50.0 |
579.9 |
6.2 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
| Noah Fant |
54.3 |
563.3 |
3.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| David Njoku |
48.8 |
560.7 |
4.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Irv Smith |
50.5 |
552.4 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gerald Everett |
52.7 |
551.9 |
4.1 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
| Hunter Henry |
47.6 |
547.3 |
5.8 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
| Pat Freiermuth |
59.0 |
547.1 |
4.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Higbee |
55.0 |
544.1 |
4.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Engram |
47.9 |
501.8 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Robert Tonyan |
44.6 |
483.0 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Austin Hooper |
46.6 |
464.7 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Hayden Hurst |
44.6 |
458.7 |
4.0 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam |
42.6 |
451.4 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox |
36.8 |
437.3 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brevin Jordan |
41.4 |
416.6 |
3.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Logan Thomas |
37.1 |
379.3 |
3.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dan Arnold |
27.7 |
331.0 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cameron Brate |
30.1 |
307.1 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Daniel Bellinger |
29.8 |
302.4 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tommy Tremble |
28.7 |
301.6 |
2.0 |
8.4 |
0.0 |
| Harrison Bryant |
29.0 |
300.8 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| C.J. Uzomah |
30.3 |
297.9 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jonnu Smith |
28.5 |
291.0 |
2.4 |
48.8 |
0.5 |
| Greg Dulcich |
27.0 |
288.0 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kyle Rudolph |
28.5 |
286.2 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Conklin |
28.8 |
283.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Will Dissly |
27.9 |
281.4 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Donald Parham |
25.4 |
269.0 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| John Bates |
24.9 |
268.6 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Likely |
24.6 |
263.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kylen Granson |
23.4 |
240.2 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Adam Trautman |
22.9 |
240.1 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Pharaoh Brown |
24.2 |
226.1 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Anthony Firkser |
23.5 |
216.6 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Taysom Hill |
19.2 |
209.7 |
1.8 |
103.2 |
1.4 |
| Foster Moreau |
17.4 |
205.8 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones |
19.2 |
198.4 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Trey McBride |
18.1 |
198.1 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| O.J. Howard |
17.4 |
193.7 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Geoff Swaim |
22.6 |
188.9 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ian Thomas |
18.7 |
187.6 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Josiah Deguara |
16.9 |
172.3 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Durham Smythe |
18.1 |
171.7 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Juwan Johnson |
13.8 |
152.4 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jelani Woods |
13.4 |
145.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Otton |
13.2 |
139.4 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| James O’Shaughnessy |
12.0 |
126.2 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Gentry |
12.7 |
121.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo |
11.0 |
113.5 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Drew Sample |
12.9 |
113.3 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ryan Griffin |
10.9 |
107.4 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Marcedes Lewis |
10.1 |
99.5 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Noah Gray |
9.4 |
90.6 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Blake Bell |
8.7 |
86.9 |
0.8 |
6.3 |
0.0 |
| Nick Boyle |
9.4 |
83.9 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| MyCole Pruitt |
7.4 |
76.2 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Maxx Williams |
6.8 |
76.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Richard Rodgers |
7.3 |
73.2 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colby Parkinson |
6.9 |
71.1 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert |
6.3 |
65.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chris Manhertz |
6.0 |
64.6 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Josh Oliver |
6.5 |
62.5 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ross Dwelley |
5.5 |
60.8 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyree Jackson |
5.1 |
52.4 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Charlie Woerner |
4.5 |
47.4 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2022 Season-Long NFL Tight End Prop Bets
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
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Dallas Goedert Under 60.5 Receptions
- Projection: 58.2 receptions
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: For the first time in his career, Goedert will have a full-time role for the entirety of the season, but that might not translate into more targets, given the addition of No. 1 WR A.J. Brown.
Noah Fant Under 57.5 Receptions
- Projection: 54.3 receptions
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: As I note in my positional battle breakdown, Fant in Week 2 played on just 15 of QB Geno Smith's 29 snaps and ran a route on just 10 of his 20 dropbacks. Fant is not a full-time player.
Noah Fant Under 580.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 563.3 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Fant is now in the worst offensive situation of his career.
Albert Okwuegbunam Under 525.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 451.4 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Okwuegbunam's preseason usage has been concerning. While all the starters have rested, Okwuegbunam has played - and he hasn't even dominated. In Week 1, he and TE Eric Tomlinson both played eight first-team snaps, and Okwuegbunam played all the way to halftime. In Week 2, he ran a route on 80% of the first-team dropbacks, which was encouraging, but he still played on just 10 of 19 first-team snaps, and he played into the fourth quarter. We have no idea what rookie Greg Dulcich's usage will look like in the regular season, but Okwuegbunam doesn't look like a "real" starter.
Travis Kelce Under 9.5 Touchdowns Receiving
- Projection: 8.2 touchdowns
- Odds: -112
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.12
- Notes: Kelce has gone under this number in half his seasons with QB Patrick Mahomes, and there are a few reasons to bet the under. Turning 33 years old this year, Kelce might slow down this year. Without last year’s starting wide receivers, the Chiefs might rely on the running game more, especially early in the season. And there’s a chance that the Chiefs might scale back Kelce’s playing time this year in an attempt to keep him fresh for the playoffs, given that he played just 10 of 25 first-team snaps in Week 2.
Mike Gesicki Under 4.5 Touchdowns Receiving
- Projection: 3.9 touchdowns
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date & Time: Friday, August 26, 1 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Gesicki (18) and TE Durham Smythe (17) have split first-team snaps in the preseason, so Gesicki is likely to see less playing time this year, and when on the field he will play more of an inline role. Gesicki could very much struggle in new HC Mike McDaniel’s offense.
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