March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Miami vs. Houston
Miami Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Isaiah Wong |
13.6 |
4.5 |
2.7 |
18.2 |
16.4 |
20.9 |
1.5 |
4.3 |
| Jordan Miller |
13.3 |
6.6 |
2.3 |
19.9 |
15.6 |
22.2 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
| Norchad Omier |
11.7 |
10.7 |
1.0 |
22.3 |
12.7 |
23.4 |
0.1 |
3.3 |
| Nijel Pack |
11.3 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
14.1 |
13.3 |
16.1 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
| Wooga Poplar |
7.2 |
3.4 |
1.2 |
10.6 |
8.5 |
11.9 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
| Bensley Joseph |
3.6 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
6.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
| Harlond Beverly |
2.3 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Anthony Walker |
2.5 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| AJ Casey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Watson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Favour Aire |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jakai Robinson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Filippos Gkogkos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Danilo Jovanovich |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Sasser |
15.8 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
18.6 |
18.8 |
21.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
| Jarace Walker |
13.2 |
8.5 |
2.1 |
21.7 |
15.3 |
23.8 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
| Jamal Shead |
10.6 |
3.3 |
5.7 |
13.9 |
16.3 |
19.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
| J’Wan Roberts |
12.2 |
10.0 |
1.5 |
22.2 |
13.7 |
23.7 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
| Tramon Mark |
11.8 |
6.1 |
2.2 |
17.8 |
14.0 |
20.0 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
| Emanuel Sharp |
4.7 |
1.9 |
0.4 |
6.6 |
5.1 |
7.0 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| Ja’Vier Francis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Terrance Arceneaux |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Reggie Chaney |
2.7 |
2.6 |
0.3 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Ramon Walker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ryan Elvin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Darius Bowser |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Miami vs. Houston Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Miami
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Isaiah Wong Over 2.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Jordan Miller Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
UB |
| Norchad Omier Over 10.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
MGM |
Houston
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Marcus Sasser Over 2.5 Assists |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
DK |
| Jarace Walker Over 1.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Jamal Shead Over 4.5 Assists |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
UB |
| J’Wan Roberts Over 7.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
UB |
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