March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 272-209, +48.52 units (Through Sweet 16)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 272-209, +48.52 units (Through Sweet 16)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Miami vs. Texas
Miami Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Isaiah Wong |
15.2 |
5.0 |
2.8 |
20.2 |
18.1 |
23.0 |
1.5 |
4.3 |
| Jordan Miller |
13.9 |
6.8 |
2.3 |
20.7 |
16.2 |
23.0 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
| Norchad Omier |
12.8 |
11.6 |
1.1 |
24.4 |
13.9 |
25.6 |
0.1 |
3.2 |
| Nijel Pack |
12.8 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
15.9 |
14.9 |
18.0 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
| Wooga Poplar |
8.7 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
12.6 |
10.0 |
14.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
| Bensley Joseph |
3.4 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
6.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
| Harlond Beverly |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Anthony Walker |
3.3 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
5.3 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| AJ Casey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Watson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Favour Aire |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jakai Robinson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Filippos Gkogkos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Danilo Jovanovich |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Texas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Carr |
16.4 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
23.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
| Sir’Jabari Rice |
14.4 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
18.5 |
16.6 |
20.8 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
| Tyrese Hunter |
12.7 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
16.6 |
15.7 |
19.6 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
| Timmy Allen |
13.5 |
7.7 |
4.5 |
21.2 |
18.1 |
25.8 |
0.1 |
2.5 |
| Dylan Disu |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Bishop |
7.8 |
4.6 |
1.0 |
12.4 |
8.8 |
13.4 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
| Arterio Morris |
4.3 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
5.7 |
4.8 |
6.2 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
| Brock Cunningham |
4.9 |
3.8 |
1.5 |
8.7 |
6.4 |
10.2 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
| Dillon Mitchell |
2.7 |
2.6 |
0.2 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Alex Anamekwe |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Bott |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gavin Perryman |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Miami vs. Texas Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Miami
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Isaiah Wong Over 2.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
| Norchad Omier Over 11.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
| Nijel Pack Under 13.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Isaiah Wong Over 1.5 3Ps |
135 |
1 |
1.35 |
DK |
| Wooga Poplar Under 9.5 Points |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
Texas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Sir’Jabari Rice Under 2.5 3Ps |
-150 |
1.5 |
1 |
DK |
| Tyrese Hunter Over 2.5 Assists |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Timmy Allen Over 3.5 Assists |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Timmy Allen Over 10.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
FD |
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More Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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