March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Michigan State vs. Kansas State
Michigan State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tyson Walker |
15.2 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
18.1 |
18.3 |
21.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
| Joey Hauser |
14.4 |
7.9 |
2.0 |
22.3 |
16.4 |
24.3 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
| A.J. Hoggard |
11.9 |
4.0 |
6.1 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
21.9 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| Jaden Akins |
10.5 |
4.9 |
1.4 |
15.4 |
11.9 |
16.7 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
| Malik Hall |
8.8 |
4.7 |
1.3 |
13.5 |
10.1 |
14.7 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
| Mady Sissoko |
5.0 |
6.8 |
0.6 |
11.8 |
5.6 |
12.3 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
| Pierre Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jaxon Kohler |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carson Cooper |
2.4 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Tre Holloman |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Jason Whitens |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Davis Smith |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Steven Izzo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nick Sanders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Keyontae Johnson |
17.4 |
8.3 |
2.3 |
25.7 |
19.7 |
28.0 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
| Markquis Nowell |
16.1 |
4.0 |
7.5 |
20.1 |
23.7 |
27.7 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
| Nae’Qwan Tomlin |
9.3 |
6.4 |
1.1 |
15.7 |
10.4 |
16.7 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
| Desi Sills |
8.4 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
12.5 |
10.7 |
14.8 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| Camryn Carter |
5.2 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
| David N’Guessan |
5.5 |
3.8 |
0.7 |
9.3 |
6.2 |
10.0 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
| Ismael Massoud |
4.6 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
6.4 |
5.0 |
6.8 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
| Abayomi Iyiola |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Tykei Greene |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Dorian Finister |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nate Awbrey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Michigan State vs. Kansas State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Michigan State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Joey Hauser Under 2.5 3Ps |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Mady Sissoko Over 10.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| A.J. Hoggard Over 5.5 Assists |
102 |
1 |
1.02 |
UB |
| Malik Hall Over 7.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Jaden Akins Over 4.5 Rebounds |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
UB |
Kansas State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Markquis Nowell Over 5.5 Assists |
-127 |
1.27 |
1 |
UB |
| Markquis Nowell Under 18.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Keyontae Johnson Over 7.5 Rebounds |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
DK |
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More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Sweet 16 Betting Picks & Predictions (Thursday)
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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