March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Michigan State vs. Marquette
Michigan State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tyson Walker |
14.7 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
17.8 |
18.1 |
21.1 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
| Joey Hauser |
14.1 |
8.2 |
2.3 |
22.3 |
16.4 |
24.6 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
| A.J. Hoggard |
11.7 |
4.2 |
6.7 |
15.8 |
18.3 |
22.5 |
0.7 |
2.9 |
| Jaden Akins |
10.7 |
5.1 |
1.6 |
15.8 |
12.3 |
17.4 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
| Malik Hall |
8.9 |
4.8 |
1.4 |
13.8 |
10.3 |
15.2 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
| Mady Sissoko |
4.8 |
7.0 |
0.7 |
11.8 |
5.5 |
12.5 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
| Pierre Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jaxon Kohler |
1.8 |
2.1 |
0.2 |
3.9 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tre Holloman |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Carson Cooper |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Jason Whitens |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Davis Smith |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Steven Izzo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nick Sanders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Marquette Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Kameron Jones |
14.8 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
18.8 |
16.8 |
20.9 |
2.8 |
1.1 |
| Tyler Kolek |
12.3 |
4.5 |
7.3 |
16.9 |
19.6 |
24.1 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper |
11.9 |
5.2 |
0.7 |
17.1 |
12.6 |
17.8 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
| Oso Ighodaro |
10.8 |
6.6 |
3.1 |
17.3 |
13.9 |
20.4 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| David Joplin |
7.9 |
3.3 |
0.7 |
11.2 |
8.6 |
11.9 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
| Stevie Mitchell |
6.2 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
8.9 |
7.1 |
9.9 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
| Chase Ross |
4.5 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
7.1 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
| Sean Jones |
2.2 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
| Ben Gold |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Keeyan Itejere |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Wrightsil |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jonah Lucas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jake Ciardo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Kennedy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Caleb Kozinski |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| RJ Walson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Michigan State vs. Marquette Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Michigan State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| A.J. Hoggard Over 5.5 Assists |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
UB |
| Mady Sissoko Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Joey Hauser Over 1.5 Assists |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
UB |
| Jaden Akins Over 1.5 Assists |
175 |
1 |
1.75 |
UB |
Marquette
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Oso Ighodaro Over 1.5 Assists |
-112 |
1.12 |
1 |
UB |
| Tyler Kolek Under 15.5 Points |
-104 |
1.04 |
1 |
FD |
| Stevie Mitchell Under 10.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper Over 10.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
Stop tracking bets manually and get sync your picks for a seamless sport betting experience >>
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 2 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 2 Betting Picks & Predictions
Get access to expert NCAA Tournament picks now >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
