All Major League Baseball teams except for the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics are in action on today’s loaded 14-game Friday slate. The action should be intense all weekend as the day begins with four of the six division races separated by four or fewer games. Three of those division leaders face teams that are under .500, but will they use that as an opportunity to inflate their records?
Read on for our MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 16.
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (+108) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-126) | O/U 7 (-102/-120)
The Seattle Mariners knew they needed help offensively to try and nail down an AL West division title or wild card spot, and Randy Arozarena has thrived in the new location after being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays. Arozarena batted .211 in 100 games with Tampa Bay, but is currently batting .286 with a .857 OPS in 16 games with Seattle. However, I expect him and the rest of the struggling Mariners offense to struggle when facing NL Rookie of the Year favorite and flamethrower Paul Skenes. Arozarena in particular has a 33.8% strikeout rate against fastballs this season (his worst against any pitch), and Skenes ranks in the 94th percentile or better in strikeout rate, xBA, and xERA.
The Pittsburgh Pirates went into Wednesday’s series finale against the San Diego Padres batting just .255 as a team during a nine-game losing streak. However, they dropped their 10th straight after scoring just two runs striking out 14 times collectively. Thus, we also expect Logan Gilbert and his 3.30 road ERA and .204 road OBA to match zeros with Skenes.
MLB Pick: Under 7 Total Runs (-120)
Washington Nationals (+220) at Philadelphia Phillies (-270) | O/U 9 (-118/-104)
Entering Wednesday’s series finale against the Miami Marlins, the Philadelphia Phillies had gone 4-11 over a poor 15-game stretch, and pitching was the team’s primary problem. While Philadelphia was scoring a respectable 4.2 runs per game in that stretch, its rotation also had a collective 6.32 ERA and .852 opponent’s OPS. Things did not get much better after allowing five runs to the Marlins, all of which came within the first four innings.
The Phillies should do their part in the scoring when facing Patrick Corbin, as the southpaw is 6-10 with a 4.81 ERA in 21 career starts against Philadelphia. The Phillies are one of one of 10 teams against whom he has a career WHIP of 1.500 or worse against, and his numbers are even worse at Citizens Bank Park, where he is 1-4 with a 6.50 ERA in nine career starts and a 1.664 WHIP. Conversely, Aaron Nola is on pace for his worst career FIP (4.04) and the worst K/9 rate (8.4) since his rookie season in 2015, and I expect Washington to do its part in scoring as well.
The Over was 29-18 in Washington’s last 47 games (+11.55 units/23% ROI) and Philadelphia’s team total Over was 60-43 in its last 103 games (+10.40 units/8% ROI) entering Thursday, and the two NL East rivals should be in for another slugfest tonight.
MLB Pick: Over 9 Total Runs (-118)
Chicago White Sox (+160) at Houston Astros (-190) | O/U 8 (-106/-114)
This series should be a colossal mismatch all weekend as the 29-win Chicago White Sox face MLB’s hottest team, the Houston Astros. The only reason Houston’s runline odds are not more steep is because Chicago sends ace Garret Crochet to the mound, but I do not expect the White Sox to score much at all, which should lead to an Astros cover.
During the first seven games of their active eight-game winning streak, the Houston Astros pitched to a 2.57 ERA and a .167 OBA, and followed that up with a 2-1 victory where they allowed just two hits in 10 innings to Tampa Bay. I expect Spencer Arrighetti to continue that run of dominant pitching performances, as he has 25 strikeouts in his last two starts, including a season-high 13 in his last outing on an economical 92 pitches. Arrighetti threw 66 of his 92 pitches for strikes, and will be licking his chops to attack a White Sox lineup that has the second-worst strikeout rate (25.4%) among all AL teams against right-handed pitching since the start of July.
Houston has profited its backers +14.15 units and an 18% ROI in covering the runline in 37 of its last 62 games. And while Chicago is 4-3 against the runline in its last seven, I am not swayed by Crochet toeing the rubber, as the White Sox are 0-9 in his last nine starts and covered the runline in just four of those.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (+125)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.