In the last two days, we’ve nailed Pete Alonso (+370) and Manny Machado (+490) and Casey Shmitt (+520) to hit home runs. Let’s keep this momentum going heading into today’s games. I’ve added three MLB home run props below. Tail below.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
JJ Wetherholt (+440)
JJ Wetherholt has hit a .266 ISO and a wOBA of .392 against his last 87 righties. He’s also struck out just 17.2% during that stretch against righties and has hit 34.4% of fly balls with 53.1% of hard contact.
Wetherholt faces Brady Singer of the Reds, who has watched his last 70 lefties hit a .462 ISO and a wOBA of .557. Singer has struck out just 20% of lefties over the last month and has allowed almost 60% of hard contact.
In addition, Singer has also given up 36.5% of fly balls, with only 32.7% of ground balls induced. He’s allowed a 23.1% barrel rate to lefties over the last 30 days.
This is an elite spot for Wetherholt to go deep.
Mitch Garver (+490)
Mitch Garver might bat eighth in the lineup today for the Royals. But that shouldn’t steer you away. Instead, take a look at his numbers against right-handed pitching over the last month. Garver has hit a .286 ISO and a wOBA of .337 with 61.5% of fly balls against righties as a right-handed hitter.
Garver has a 76.9% hard-hit rate and a 15.4% barrel rate against righties in that stretch.
Garver will battle Seth Lugo of the Royals, who has allowed a .278 ISO and a wOBA of .466 to his last 41 righties. Lugo has given up more than 30% of fly balls, a 12.1% barrel rate and 45.5% of hard contact, while adding just 12.2% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
Garver is hitting for power against righties. This is a perfect spot for Garver to go deep against a struggling Lugo.
Nick Castellanos (+730)
While Luis Medina is listed as the starter for the Athletics, Jacob Lopez will likely pitch the bulk of this game. The left-handed pitcher has allowed a .355 ISO and a wOBA of .412 to his last 69 righties. Those righties have hit 36.5% of fly balls, and he’s earned just a 5.6% swinging strike rate with 15.9% of strikeouts against righties over the last month.
Nick Castellanos is a power-hitting righty who has added a .200 ISO qwith 61.5% of fly balls against lefties over the last month. He’s also earned a 15.4% barrel rate against lefties in the last 30 days. Castellanos has a huge strikeout rate himself, but that could diminish against Lopez. If Castellanos makes contact, there’s a good chance it’ll be hard fly-ball contact with the barrel of the bat.
Let’s take Castellanos to launch a home run today.
