Some crazy things have happened from an MLB home run props perspective already this week, like the Guardians belting seven home runs in a game for just the sixth time in franchise history, after entering the week with the fewest home runs in home games (39).
While I was tempted to back Yordan Alvarez to homer today given that he logged his fifth multi-homer game of the season on Monday which brought him to seven home runs and 15 RBI this month, my MLB home run picks reach a little bit for more value plays. My three-pack of plays even includes a player amid a 26-game home run drought.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s loaded 17-game slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Garrett Mitchell (+431)
Garrett Mitchell entered yesterday with a .341 batting average since the start of June, which was the fifth-highest among all batters with a minimum of 100 players appearances.
In 141 games from 2022-25, he slashed .354/.333/.433 with a 114 wRC+ and a 3.3 fWAR. But through his first 90 games this season, he slashed .283/.368/.465 with a 130 wRC+ and a 2.4 fWAR. The 130 wRC+ ranked fourth among all center-fielders (min. 150 PA).
Since the start of July to yesterday, he ranked sixth in batting average (.397), 14th in on-base percentage (.441), 12th in slugging (.651), ninth in wRC+ (199), and second in fWAR among position players (1.1). He has the fourth-highest fast-swing percentage at 78.7% (min. 200 swings).
Mitchell is also one of seven players to rank in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit, barrel, and chase rate among Statcast qualifiers. He has the highest batting average to the non-pull side (.500) and the third-highest slugging percentage in that split (min. 75 PA).
Gabriel Moreno (+720)
Gabriel Moreno has just six home runs on the season, but is a great value play to go deep this afternoon given how he has swung the bat of late.
Moreno entered yesterday amid a 17-game on-base streak, during which he smacked three doubles, drew 11 walks, and drove in seven runs. Moreno's .426 batting average to the non-pull side is the fourth-highest among those with a minimum of 75 plate appearances, and he was on pace for a second consecutive month with an OPS of at least .882.
Moreno is amid a 26-game home run drought, which would make this wager much sweeter if it cashes. He certainly is trending the right direction to end that drought in the near future.
Wilyer Abreu (+371)
Wilyer Abreu has been one of the Red Sox’ most clutch hitters through its historic 14-game winning streak. And his adaptability to hit elevated fastballs is a big reason for his torrid success this year.
Versus fastballs 2.75 feet or higher from 2023-25, Abreu batted .199 and slugged .283. Those were the worst average and slugging percentages in the Majors (min. 100 PA). This year, he is batting .271 and slugging .492 on such pitches, while improving his whiff rate from 35% to 26.5%.
Abreu is facing a right-handed starting pitcher in Dean Kremer today. But his career splits against southpaws cannot go unnoticed, especially if the Orioles try to match up a lefty against him late in the game.
In 145 late appearances against left-handed pitchers from 2023-25, Abreu slashed .205/.271/.318 with two home runs, a 62 wRC+, and a 25.5% strikeout rate. In 133 such plate appearances this year, Abreu is slashing .351/.432/.579 with five home runs, a 178 wRC+, and a 13.5% strikeout rate. Abreu’s on-base percentage and wRC+ against southpaws are MLB’s best among left-handed hitters (min. 60 PA).
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.