MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (8/16)

Tonight's full slate of MLB games provides several opportunities for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays. I've settled on my favorite three. One of the games is potentially the best NRFI spot of the entire MLB season, featuring two bottom-five offenses and two dominant All-Star starting pitchers; I will be playing this game for a full unit. The latter two games also showcase some underwhelming offenses and pitchers in excellent form and have significant splits advantages against the opposition, which I will be playing for a half-unit each.

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

2024 NRFI Record: 41-38 (-1.07 Units)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Logan Gilbert

It's almost impossible to overstate just how good Paul Skenes has been this season, evident by the selection to start the rookie for the National League in the All-Star game despite him being in the minor leagues to begin the season. Skenes currently holds an incredible 2.25 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, backed by a 96th percentile xERA of 2.61 and a 94th percentile xBA of 0.199. He's got top-shelf swing-and-miss stuff, with a 74th percentile whiff%, 84th percentile chase rate and 94th percentile K%. Batters aren't doing any damage even if they do make contact, as his hard-hit% and barrel% both rank above the 74th percentile with a ground ball rate that sits in the 83rd percentile at 49.8%. As I've detailed many times, this Mariners offense is atrocious despite the additions that they made at the trade deadline. They lead the league in strikeouts, they have a league-worst batting average and they rank 27th or worse in on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate (SLG). This matchup sets up well for Skenes to absolutely dominate tonight.

I've been singing the praises of Mariners right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert all year, as he has been phenomenal with a 2.91 ERA and league-leading 0.87 WHIP. While his underlying numbers don't quite jump off the screen like Skenes, he grades out above the 69th percentile in both K% and chase rate with a whiff% in the 84th percentile. His barrel% ranks in the top third of all pitchers and his command is outstanding, as his 4.6% walk rate puts him in the 94th percentile. He also ranks well above average in ground ball rate (44.5%), xBA (0.232) and xERA (3.23). Gilbert has a very favorable matchup this evening as well, against a Pirates offense that ranks top-five in strikeouts and 24th or worse in batting average (AVG), OPS, SLG and OBP. The juice on this one is pretty heavy but I believe it's warranted, as this is potentially the best NRFI spot of the entire baseball season.

Pick: NRFI (-160 @ Caesars Sportsbook, Bet365)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti vs. Garrett Crochet

Rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti gets the start for Houston this evening, with a 5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP I find very deceiving. For starters, his xERA is a much lower 3.98 with an xERA of 0.226 which sits in the 74th percentile. He has swing-and-miss stuff, evident by his 72nd percentile whiff% and 84th percentile K%. He's also in great form right now, sitting well above league average in terms of xWOBA versus the previous 50 batters that he has faced. Arrighetti should have his way with the worst offense in baseball, as the White Sox rank second-worst in home runs and AVG and are dead-last in OBP, OPS and SLG this season.

The lone bright spot for the White Sox in their abysmal season has been Garrett Crochet, who has been terrific in his first season as a full-time starting pitcher. His advanced numbers rival that of the Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, grading out above the 90th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff% and K%. His chase rate qualifies in the 85th percentile, with an average exit velocity and ground ball rate that both rank well above the league average. I don't have much to say negatively about the Astros offense, which seems to finally be rounding into form down the stretch, but I will trust Crochet and his pedigree to get through the first inning unscathed.

Pick: NRFI (-120 @ Caesars Sportsbook, Bet365, BetMGM)

Los Angeles Angels vs Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Spencer Schwellenbach

I'm personally pretty high on Angels young right-handed starter Jose Soriano, a sinkerball pitcher with a very live arm. Soriano is up there with the likes of Paul Skenes in terms of fastball velocity, with a sinker that averages 98 miles per hour (MPH) and grades out in the 85th percentile in terms of run value. True to the pitch, Soraino's ground ball rate reminds me of prime Framber Valdez, sitting in the 97th percentile at 59.9%. His barrel rate also ranks in the top third of pitchers, which combines with the ground ball profile to nullify some of his hard-hit and swing-and-miss metrics. He'll face a Braves offense that's a shell of what it was last year, middling in most offensive categories and ranking 24th in baseball in OBP. He'll also have a splits advantage this evening, as the Braves have significantly worse offensive numbers against righties this season.

Another young right-hander will take the opposing mound, with first-year man Spencer Schwellenbach getting the start for Atlanta. Schwellenbach seems to have found his footing since dealing with some early struggles, and his advanced numbers are reflective of such. He grades out in the 70th percentile or above in xBA, average exit velocity, whiff% and K%, and he comes in above the 85th percentile in xERA, barrel% and BB%. He's also probably in the best form of his young career, with an xWOBA ranking significantly above league average dating back to his previous 100 batters faced. Schwellenbach has a great matchup tonight against an Angels lineup that also has significantly worse splits against righties and ranks bottom-10 in home runs, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.

Pick: NRFI (-120 @ Bet365)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: