Five straight 2-1 weeks with our MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks have us a comfortable four games over .500 for the season in that market. We’re looking to get closer to turning a profit with another three-pack of plays. Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for some of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for a sixth straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 28-24 (-1.21 units, -2.3% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Bradish
The Phillies are 4-10 since the All-Star break, and an offense that ranked 11th or worse among National League teams to start the week in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage (OBP) and strikeouts is a big reason for their downfall. I don’t expect those issues to get better facing Kyle Bradish, who has pitched to a .187 opponents’ batting average in 10 home starts this season.
On the other side, Pete Alonso has 19 career home runs against the Phillies, tied for his third-most against any team. His 21 homers against Philadelphia since 2019 (including the postseason) are the second-most among all players. But Zack Wheeler quells any concerns about Alonso producing early, as the slugger has zero home runs (and just 10 hits) in 41 career at-bats against Wheeler.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Jacob Misiorowski vs. Walbert Urena
When the runaway National League Cy Young Award frontrunner toes the rubber, I always look long and hard at the NRFI odds for that day.
Jacob Misiorowski was 9-2 with a microscopic 0.87 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and a 13.3 K/9 rate in his first 13 starts since May 1st (10-3 team record). He is coming off a 12-strikeout performance that brought his MLB-leading strikeout total to 185. Of his 83 pitches in that start, 66 were 100+ miles per hour (MPH), 54 were 102+ MPH and seven were at least 104 MPH. In all, he threw 66 four-seam fastballs and generated 23 whiffs and nine strikeouts.
Misiorowski is so tough to hit against not only because of the velocity, but because he is tied for the longest release point extension (minimum 500 pitches) at 7.5 feet. But his average fastball velocity is 100.6 MPH, compared to the other three pitchers with 7.4 feet of release point topping out at 97 MPH.
As long as Walbert Urena pitches close to his 1.06 first inning ERA and .143 opponents’ batting average, this NRFI wager should cash with ease.
Pick: NRFI (-158)
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Jake Bennett vs. Emmet Sheehan
Jake Bennett had a five-start winning streak snapped in his last outing, and no Red Sox rookie starting pitcher has won six straight since 1961. He has allowed just five homers, but all have come from right-handed batters. More so, he has allowed a home run in back-to-back starts for the second time this season, and that could get him into trouble against sluggers like Mookie Betts or Andy Pages. The latter still has a respectable 18 home runs despite hitting only two in July.
On the other side, Emmet Sheehan is Los Angeles’ most vulnerable starting pitcher, as evidenced by its 1-8 team record in his last nine starts. That is preposterous considering the Dodgers are tied for the most wins in the Majors. The Red Sox may have gone without scoring a run in the first inning in seven out of their last eight games, but we’re getting great value with a yes runs first inning (YRFI) wager to buck that trend tonight.
Pick: YRFI (-113)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.