The Seattle Mariners will look to punch a ticket to the World Series in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) tonight.
In the first four games of this series, the Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays each won their first two road games. However, Seattle finally earned a home win in Game 5 to push the series to 3-2. Can Seattle close the door with ace Logan Gilbert on the bump?
Below, I’ll add my favorite MLB picks & predictions for tonight’s ALCS Game 6 matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Logan Gilbert has struggled to add strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. He’s earned just 17.3% of strikeouts against righties and has allowed 28.2% of line drives and 28.2% of fly balls to those righties. On the other hand, the Blue Jays should have more righties than lefties in the lineup. Those five righties, including George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have combined to hit a .268 ISO and wOBA of .384 with just 12.3% of strikeouts.
If Gilbert struggles to add a high rate of strikeouts against righties, the Blue Jays can certainly take advantage. After all, Gilbert has allowed 56.4% of hard contact to righties and has allowed a .308 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays will turn to young stud Trey Yesavage. The right-hander has a 4.82 ERA in the postseason, but he’s still got some really good stuff. There will be a lot of pressure on the rookie. But he’s still earned 27.8% of strikeouts over the last 30 days, while holding opponents to a .057 ISO and wOBA of .257. Yesavage has earned 45.8% of ground balls and has allowed just 18.8% of fly balls over the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll be up against a Seattle lineup that has five batters hitting an ISO of below .140 and a wOBA of below .290 over the last month. This same projected lineup has struck out 26.5% of the time against righties in the previous 30 days. Only Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford have limited strikeouts to a low rate against righties in the last month.
As a projected lineup, the Mariners have still added a .203 ISO. Yet, they’ve contributed a .328 wOBA and have walked only 8.6% of the time. The lineup has also combined to hit a .262 BABIP, meaning only a little over a quarter of the time over the last month has a ball in play become a hit. It’s no secret that Yesavage will have a short leash. But if he performs well enough, he’ll go as long as the Blue Jays can allow him to go.
Give me the Blue Jays on the Moneyline at home. I’ve got them forcing a Game 7.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-126)
