The Major League Baseball slate is limited to eight games today as Thursdays remain a popular getaway day. Still, that gives us plenty of data and opportunities to cash in on our favorite MLB player prop bets.
A lot of noteworthy performances have happened recently from a player prop perspective. Charlie Blackmon had his 13th career game with four-plus RBIs. Anthony Volpe has the longest hitting streak for a Yankee in over a decade. Joe Ryan improved to 6-0 with a 1.49 career ERA against the Kansas City Royals in a key AL Central clash, and Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada set the MLB record with 13 consecutive strikeouts (over three outings). What player props are on our radar for today?
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, May 30.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Kepler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
An article in the Star Tribune highlighted that Max Kepler is close to making history, as the Twins leadoff man is tied with former second baseman Brian Dozier with the most home runs ever at Target Field (80). In fact, Kepler is one of just two left-handed hitters with at least 32 home runs at the ballpark since it opened in 2010.
Max Kepler is 20 RBI shy of the all-time Target Field record.
1. Joe Mauer – 271
2. Max Kepler – 251
3. Brian Dozier – 247
t4. Jorge Polanco – 206
t4. Eddie Rosario – 206
6. Miguel Sano – 198 pic.twitter.com/Q3tqHE4ZYQ— Twins Ribbies (@TwinsRibbies) May 26, 2024
Kepler’s history against Royals righty Brady Singer suggests he should only need one hit to go over this projected total. Though Kepler has just five hits in 20 at-bats against Singer, all five of those hits have gone for extra bases (including two home runs). He has also walked four times, which is a sign that he sees the ball well out of Singer’s hand. The righty has a history of struggles with Minnesota, as the Twins have collectively slashed .297/.381/.536 in 118 at-bats against him.
Kepler’s .844 OPS entering Wednesday was second on the team (min. 36 games played), and considering he had gone over this projected total in four of his previous eight games, we are getting tremendous value for him to do so again.
Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-155)
Carlos Rodon has made it look like he has well past last year’s struggles of an injury-riddled season with how he has pitched of late. Rodon has recorded at least 18 outs (and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each) in four consecutive starts, and per StatMuse, it is his first four-start streak with going at least six innings since June 2022.
Padres hitters went a combined 3-for-15 on his four-seam fastball and 0-for-5 on his sliders in his last start. Outside of a blow-up at Camden Yards, where he allowed seven runs in four innings, he has pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a 33:8 K:BB ratio in his other six previous starts.
He faces a Los Angeles Angels lineup that ranks in the top five in wRC+ and BABIP against left-handed pitching, which is why Rodon’s projected O/U is not lower. While the Angels had cashed the Over on their team total in 31 of their last 51 games entering Wednesday (+7.75 units/13% ROI), Rodon and this Yankees pitching staff have been too good of late to fade now.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.