MLB To Hit a Home Run Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Friday (8/25)

Happy Friday to everyone in the Betting Pros Network! We have a massive weekend ahead of us with college football getting underway, the NFL preseason coming to a close, and, of course, a full weekend of MLB action. I'm taking it to the prop sheet to start the weekend and I'm narrowing in on these four players to go yard tonight in the MLB. Let's dive into the picks and analysis.

MLB YTD: 82-155 (-6.07 units)

Friday's Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kyle Tucker (+475)

The Astros dropped their final two games at home against the Red Sox in the midweek series, including a 17-1 beatdown on Thursday afternoon. They'll look to get back in the win column when they send Framber Valdez to the bump tonight. The Tigers counter with Matt Manning in this American League clash slated for 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.

Manning has been a serviceable option for the Tigers this year as he comes in at 5-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The right-hander has been somewhat susceptible to the long ball considering his HR/9 rate sits at 1.53. He has surrendered four homers over 23.0 innings of work this month.

Enter Kyle Tucker, who has been on an MVP pace this year. If it weren't for Shohei Ohtani, Tucker would probably be the frontrunner in the A.L. However, due to Ohtani's recent UCL injury, the A.L. MVP Award odds are currently off the board at most sportsbooks.

Still, Tucker is hitting .293 this year with a .892 OPS. The outfielder has mashed 25 big flies while driving in 95 RBI. Furthermore, he's 2-for-2 (1.000) against Manning with a home run. I'll gladly take the +475 payout with Tucker in this spot.

Jorge Soler (+370)

An underrated series this weekend features a battle between the Nationals and Marlins. Entering today, the Fish are 2.0 games out of the Wild Card, and seven of their next ten games are against the pesky Nationals. First pitch for the series opener is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from LoanDepot Park in Miami, FL.

Joan Adon gets the nod for the Nats, and he has had a rough season overall. The right-hander has made five appearances and owns a 7.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The discrepancy in the ERA and WHIP is due to him giving up a ton of home runs. Adon owns a 2.00 HR/9 rate, which is the second-most amongst today's starters, with at least 15.0 innings pitched this season.

Considering the Marlins are in the hunt for a playoff position, this seems like a spot where they'll need their best players to step up. That includes Jorge Soler, who is seventh in the MLB in home runs this year (33). He also has a head-to-head advantage in this matchup as he is 1-for-2 (.500) against Adon with a double. I think Soler will launch one over the fence tonight against the home run-prone Adon.

TJ Friedl (+700) & Matt McLain (+450)

The Reds took a late lead last night… and then they blew it. They dropped the series opener of a massive four-game set 3-2 to the Diamondbacks. Tonight's pitching matchup features a battle between Hunter Greene and Brandon Pfaadt. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.

Pfaadt certainly hasn't been the reason that the Snakes are in the playoff hunt this year. The right-hander comes into this one at 0-6 and owns a 6.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He hasn't been able to keep the ball in the park, as his HR/9 rate is 2.04.

These two picks are all about the head-to-head matchups for me. TJ Friedl and Matt McLain have each taken Pfaadt yard in their careers, going 1-for-3 (.333) and 1-for-2 (.500), respectively. Additionally, 10 of Friedl's 11 homers have come against RHP, while nine of McLain's 15 have. This game has all of the makings of a slugfest, and I'll take these two rising stars to go deep tonight.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: