We’re hunting for more value with tonight’s two NBA Play-In Tournament matchups. I’ve added a few NBA picks using the BettingPros’ Market Based EV page. There’s some real value on the betting board. Let’s attack.
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Wednesday’s Best Market Based EV NBA Picks
Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+158 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +150
- Market EV: 3%
Jalen Suggs has added at least three three-pointers in three consecutive games. He actually nailed seven threes in his last game out against the Boston Celtics before the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Suggs has attempted more than seven three-pointers per game over the last 10 games. However, over his last two games, he’s attempted 24 threes combined, so he’s averaged 12 threes per game over the last two games.
Meanwhile, the 76ers rank 19th in three-point attempts and 18th in three-point rate to point guards. That’s still below average in the NBA. Let’s take a chance with Jalen Suggs at +158 odds to nail three shots from beyond the arc. There’s value here.
Quentin Grimes Over 2.5 Rebounds (-115 at BetMGM)
- Fair Value: -123
- Market EV: 3%
Quentin Grimes has earned at least three rebounds in six of his last eight games. He’s also averaged about 25 minutes per game for the 76ers over the last 10 games. Grimes has added 6.2 rebound chances per game and has had at least five rebound chances in all but one of his last eight games.
Grimes will battle a Magic team that is average at rebounds allowed to guards this season. He has totaled at least three rebounds in three of his last four games against the Magic in his career.
Let’s take advantage of this value pick.
Kawhi Leonard Over 1.5 Steals (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -128
- Market EV: +2%
Kawhi Leonard has always been a top defensive player in the league. He’s known for his savvy defense that leads to a bunch of steals.
Leonard has averaged 1.3 steals per game over the last 10 games. He’s recorded at least two steals in 52% of games and had two in his last game against the Warriors in March.
Ultimately, the Warriors rank dead last in turnovers against small forwards. Leonard should be able to take advantage and earn two steals based on that info alone.
