We’ve got a fun NBA slate tonight. Let’s add some market-based +EV NBA picks for Monday, October 26th.
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Monday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Evan Mobley Over 8.5 Rebounds (+110 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -116
- Market EV: +13%
Evan Mobley grabbed 10 rebounds in his latest game against the Brooklyn Nets. He had only 15 rebound chances in that game but still hauled in 10 rebounds.
For context, Mobley had 24 rebound chances against Philadelphia in the first game of the season, but he grabbed only eight rebounds. He’s on pace for about 20 rebound chances per game. Mobley could cash this ticket by grabbing fewer than 50% of his rebound chances if he gets another 20 opportunities tonight.
You can bet on Mobley to go over 8.5 rebounds at +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook. The fair value is -116. That’s a +13 % expected-value play. This is a huge one.
P.J. Washington Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (+144 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +118
- Market EV: +12%
P.J. Washington Jr. has averaged seven rebounds per game this season. He had a big performance against Indiana, but grabbed only four rebounds in his other two games.
However, Washington will face a Miami team that just allowed Naz Reid to grab nine rebounds. In the prior game, John Collins grabbed seven rebounds against Miami. The Heat have allowed at least six rebounds to every power forward they have faced this season.
Washington has a great matchup, and you can bet on him to go over 7.5 rebounds at +144 on Novig. The fair value is +118. This is another super strong play to consider.
Jalen Green Under 2.5 Assists (+140 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +125
- Market EV: +7%
Points are typically hard to come by when facing the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder ranked sixth in the NBA in assists allowed to shooting guards last season. Additionally, Jalen Green had only one assist on four chances against the Warriors.
Ultimately, Green has had only four assist opportunities in each of his last two games. The last time he faced the Thunder, he had 13 assist opportunities and only finished with four. You could only imagine what he’d finish with when he has fewer opportunities tonight.
At ProphetX, you can bet on him to go under 2.5 assists at +140. The fair value is +125. This is a 7% positive expected value play, and one you should absolutely consider.
