Get ready for an early start as the NFL heads across the pond for an exciting Week 5 showdown in London! I'm Andrew Erickson, and this is your go-to guide for betting on the highly anticipated matchup between the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
With the Vikings looking to make a statement to 5-0 and the Jets aiming to bounce back after a tough home loss, there's plenty of intrigue on both sides of the ball. From breaking down the spread and total to highlighting the best player props, I've got you covered on approaching this international clash.
So, set those alarms, pour that coffee, and get ready for some morning football action! Let's dive into my top picks and betting angles for this overseas battle: Jets vs. Vikings in London!
Week 5 International Series Betting Primer
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (London)
Sides:
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games. 2-2 ATS this season.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games. They are 4-0 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
- All but five of the Vikings' last 18 games have been decided by eight points or less (78%).
Totals:
- Twelve of the Jets' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Vikings' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Vikings are 3-1 toward the under this season.
- Five of the Vikings’ last six games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The UNDER has hit in four straight NFL games played in London.
Overall:
Our first London game of the season has arrived! With that, we can expect more variance than a typical NFL contest (which is already pretty crazy). For starters, it is important to know how each team approaches the week from a travel perspective.
Minnesota is arriving Friday morning, while the Jets' plans are more unknown (fun). By that, I mean head coach Robert Saleh said the team is doing things differently than they did in 2021. They flew out Thursday night in 2021 and arrived on Friday. The flight plan will remain the same, so what Saleh refers to as "different" remains to be seen. Main takeaway: Nothing is glaring from a travel perspective that is an advantage for either team.
Last season, we had five international games. Three in the U.K. and two in Germany. The under was a perfect 5-0, while the favorites went 4-1 straight up and ATS. The only "upset" was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. Favorites and unders have been the most profitable way to approach international NFL games as outlined in this BettingPros article from 2022. Per Oddsshark, favorites are 65% on the ML and 51% ATS in the history of NFL games in London.
So, at an initial glance, it's safe to say the under is probably the play here.
Aaron Rodgers is banged up, and the Vikings’ top-five defense won't help this Jets offense find its groove.
Conversely, Sam Darnold's production will eventually come down to Earth, and the Jets’ strong defense could pose some issues. Gang Green's defense ranks in the top 3 in overall passing efficiency and pressure generated this season.
There’s truly no better way to enjoy a London game (especially West Coasters) than by waking up to an under that cashes.
Props:
I don't think the process was bad chasing Breece Hall's receiving yards prop last week. He saw five targets, but we just saw zero offense in a sloppy, rainy MetLife Stadium.
The thesis behind the play was Rodgers would look to get the ball out quickly to mitigate the Broncos' blitz. Rinse and repeat.
The Vikings have blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (41.3%) after blitzing at the highest rate in the league in 2023 (50.3%). Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers has attempted a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL this season (57.8%). Rodgers has completed 51 of his 74 quick passes (68.9%) for 483 yards and three touchdowns in 2024. His 483 yards on quick passes are the 3rd-most in the NFL.
The blitz is coming, and a hobbled Rodgers has no interest in waiting for his WRs to get open downfield. It’s not great for Garrett Wilson to turn around his production, but it’s ideal for Hall to return to form as a receiver out of the backfield.
As great as the Vikings’ defense has been, they have given up a boatload of receiving yards. No team has allowed more yards to WRs than Minnesota this season. Mike Williams has been playing more the last two weeks, going OVER his receiving prop in both contests. Williams led the receiving corps, catching four of five targets for 67 yards in Week 4.
I don’t love the matchup more than the extremely suppressed number for the Jets No. 2 WR.
The Jets' weakness on defense is against the run, and Minnesota has one of the most efficient run games behind Aaron Jones. And he got a lot of work last week in a revenge game against the Packers. But there's no way that's the plan for Jones every week to see that much volume. The split was different with Ty Chandler compared to the season’s first three weeks. Jones is pacing well over 300 touches (20 per game). He's never had more than 285 touches in a season (2019). Chandler should get more work in this matchup. I love him at longer than normal odds for an anytime TD (+380)
My Picks:
- Under 40.5
- Breece Hall OVER 27.5 receiving yards
- Mike Williams OVER 28.5 receiving yards
- Ty Chandler anytime TD
