NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 3)

Week 2 gave us plenty of overreactions, surprises, and betting lessons. Not a great week for me, going 3-5 on the official plays (up to 4-9 so far through two weeks). But the Patriots on the moneyline proved to be the right underdog side, and the Lions at home continue to be the gift that keeps on giving in terms of points scored. I’m thinking a lot about teams who will play under new circumstances this week – ie who will play on the road/home for the first time this season?

Now it’s time to turn the page and attack the full main Sunday slate for Week 3. Whether you’re building Same Game Parlays (SGPs), locking in best bets against the spread, or hunting for value in the player props market, we’ve got you covered.

This primer breaks down every matchup with actionable angles – sides, totals, live bet leans, and player props – to help you get ahead of the market.

Plus, with the new BettingPros App, you’ll get instant alerts when a line hits your target, so you never miss the best number.

Check out our proven NFL Betting Systems, ride the momentum (or fade the noise) from Week 2, and set up your card for Sunday.

NFL Week 3 Betting Primer (2025)

Top Favorites:

Seahawks -7
Cowboys ML (-112)

Top Underdogs:

Jets +6.5
Rams +3.5
Raiders +3
Broncos +3

Top Totals:

NE/PIT over 44.5
MIN/CIN under 41.5
DEN/LAC over 45.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Shy away from sides (Lean Under 43.5)
Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)
Why:

The Colts have historically dominated as small favorites under Shane Steichen. But not as much on the road.
Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (67%, 10-5).
Cam Ward looks solid but is hamstrung by poor play-calling.
The Titans are the most penalized team in the NFL. But also a underrated defense.
First time this season Colts will play on the road (against a divisional rival no less).

Trends

Sides:

The favorites have won 25 of the Colts' last 31 games.
The Colts are 5-3 ATS as favorites since the start of 2024.
The Colts are 12-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
The Colts have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
The Colts have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Titans.
The Titans have lost each of their last eight games.
The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine home games.
The Titans have lost each of their last eight games.
The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 15 games.
They were the only team in 2024 to not cover any home game (0-8 ATS).
The Titans are 6-12 at home since the start of 2023.
The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 17 games at Nissan Stadium.

Totals:

Six of the Colts' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
Ten of the last 14 Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
7 of the Colts’ last 8 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
The Titans are 8-8-1 at home O/U since the start of 2023

Overall:

I originally opened up with the Colts as my preferred side. Shane Steichen, as a favorite, continues to cash, and I'm fading Brian Callahan's game plans that are holding Cam Ward back. Indy has the coaching/QB edge and should handle business even on the road. Although the Colts are just 2-3 ATS as road favorites since 2023...and just 8-8 ATS on the road. Not shocking, but this dome team plays better indoors.

Therefore, I'd expect Daniel Jones and the offense to step back a bit against an underrated Titans defense playing for the first time on the road, but not to the extent that Tennessee comes away with the home upset. The 4-point spread does concern me slightly. The Colts often win as favorites (typically at home), but they are also notorious for playing in close games. Unless it’s Miami…16 of their last 20 games have been decided by one score. 9 of their last 10 wins have come by one score or less. Eventually these close games just won’t fall in their favor (especially two weeks in a row).

Indianapolis got lucky last week in the win against the Broncos. I think this spread is spot on so that I won't be making an official pick ATS for Colts-Titans.

If anything, I'd probably lean toward the under in any capacity. This matchup in Tennessee last season netted just 37 total points. Both teams rank above average in pass defense efficiency.

Keep in mind that both of these teams had a common opponent in the Denver Broncos. Tennessee should have beaten the Broncos on the road (still covered) and Indy should have lost to Denver (and not covered).

All in all, this smells like a prop game. Been solid on the props with both Colts-Titans games through two weeks (5-1). If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Prop Angles:

Rams WRs combined for 6 catches and 142 yards from the slot versus the Titans in Week 2. Broncos WRs combined for 6 catches and 24 yards from the slot versus the Titans in Week 1.
Josh Downs averaged 5 receptions versus the Titans in 2024...going over 60 yards in each game.
He's the least likely to matchup versus Titan's No. 1 CB, L'Jarius Sneed, giving him a runway to rack up 4.5-plus receptions. We bet Downs receptions total over last week to succeed...so I like going back it at plus money.
Last week, Downs led the team with 8 targets, catching 6 balls for 51 yards.

Erickson’s Props:

Josh Downs: Over 4.5 receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Over 44.5
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

The Steelers exploded offensively with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, but regressed in Week 2 against a stronger Seahawks defense.
Both of these defenses have been terrible to start the season…and neither have faced a row of top-tier QBs.
Both defenses are dealing with key injuries, which has been a contributing factor to their poor defensive starts.
Pats home games have trended heavily toward overs…while Steelers’ road game have also gone heavily toward overs.

Trends

Sides:

The Patriots have lost each of their last 11 games following a win.
The road team has covered the spread in four of the Patriots’ last five games.
The Patriots have lost 11 of their last 13 games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 20 games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 20 games.
The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record.
The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
The Steelers are 15-12 ATS on the road.
The Steelers are 8-10 ATS and 10-9 ML on the road since the start of 2023.
As road favorites, the Steelers are 5-5 ATS.

Totals:

Eight of the Patriots’ last nine home games following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.
16 of the last 24 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
11 of the Patriots' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Patriots’ last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the Steelers’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Lean the game total going OVER. Without CB Christian Gonzalez, New England's secondary is vulnerable to intermediate/deep shots, and Pittsburgh's defense has holes because of all the injuries they are dealing with (8 guys on Wednesday's injury report and 5 starters out). Feels like a 27-24 (or higher) type game, even if it's basically a pick'em with the Steelers as slight road favorites. Gonzalez is not the only CB who is hurt for New England (Carlton Davis), who got banged up in Week 2 (although he is not on the final injury report). Through two weeks, the Patriots and Steelers both rank inside the bottom-5 in pass defense efficiency (EPA/pass attempt allowed). And that's been against Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith and Justin Fields. Woof. The trends also heavily back the over in this contest for both teams.

Prop Angles:

The Steelers have recorded a league-high 18.2% missed tackle rate through the first two weeks of the season. They have allowed opposing ball-carriers to force 28 missed tackles and record the third -most yards after missed tackles in the NFL (160). Last season, the Steelers recorded the second-lowest missed tackle rate (10.7%) in the NFL.
The Pats should be able to create explosives in this matchup. Who is their most explosive player? TreyVeon Henderson.
The Patriots rank 4th in the NFL in RB target share (27%). 9 per game.
Hendo has gone over 21.5 receiving yards in both games this year (24-plus). The Steelers have allowed both primary pass-catching RBs they have faced this season to go over their receiving yards prop.

Erickson’s Props:

TreVeyon Henderson: Over 17.5 receiving yards

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Jets +6.5
Confidence: ★★★★(4 out of 5)
Why:

Buccaneers are coming off a massive Monday night road victory. Rest disadvantage with several guys banged up.
TB lost two OL starters in Week 2. Tristan Wirfs is still out.
Tyrod Taylor has been great ATS as a market underdog. 21-12-3 ATS record (58%). Last starts for Tyrod came in 2023 (New York Giants), where he finished 4-0-1 ATS in those games for a 73% ROI.

Trends

Sides:

Tampa Bay is 8-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 14 games.
Since 2023, TB is just 5-6 ATS as a home favorite. 7-4 straight up.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games.
The Buccaneers have won eight of their last 10 games following a loss.

Totals:

Seven of the Jets’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I am heavily leaning toward the Jets + points, especially with Tyrod Taylor starting. He's one of the better backups in the league and has a dual-threat skill set, so the Jets can run the same offense according to OC Tanner Engstrand. Tampa's playing on a short week and Baker Mayfield isn't as trustworthy as a sizable home favorite. I might even consider waiting-public money on TB could inflate the number after the big MNF win on the road closer to kick off. The MVP hype for Baker is so strong now after his terrific performance. But he also took a ton of hits in that game. And the rest of TB is also banged up. WR Emeka Egbuka, T Luke Goedeke (IR) DL Calijah Kancey (IR) and G Cody Mauch (IR). Defensively, the Jets also matchup very well with against Mayfield with their HEAVY man coverage unit. Mayfield also leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays. But so far...he has thrown zero interceptions. Methinks something has to give….

With extra time to prepare, I like the Jets catching close to a TD as underdogs. According to BetMGM, Taylor is 61% ATS in his career. But as a market underdog...Taylor posted a 21-12-3 ATS record (58%). Last starts for Tyrod came in 2023 (New York), where he finished 4-0-1 ATS in those games for a 73% ROI. Taylor doesn't raise the ceiling level that Justin Fields does in the Jets offense...but he raises the floor with smart decision-making as a more conservative signal caller.

Prop Angles:

Breece Hall has averaged a speed of 11.02 mph at the line of scrimmage this season, the third-highest among running backs with at least 15 carries. When Hall exceeds his average speed at the line of scrimmage, he averages 8.5 yards per carry compared to just 3.3 yards per carry when he doesn’t (Next Gen Stats).
Baker Mayfield has fared poorly against man coverage through two weeks of the season, recording a -17.1% completion percentage over expected (2nd-lowest) and averaging 3.6 yards per attempt (5th-fewest). The Jets have played man coverage on 40.0% of their coverage dropbacks this season (7th-highest) but allowed the 4th-highest completion percentage over expected (+12.4%) and 14th-most yards per attempt (7.1) according to Next Gen Stats.
The Jets rank dead last in pass rate over expectation this season. Just 22 pass attempts in both games this season.

Erickson’s Props:

Tyrod Taylor: UNDER 27.5 pass attempts

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Raiders +3
Confidence: ★★★★★ (5 out of 5)
Why:

Geno Smith COOKS as a road underdog (9-3 ATS as road dog since 2023).
Jayden Daniels (out) masks a lot of the issues the Commanders have on offense. Washington is likely to be exposed with backup Marcus Mariota under center.

Trends

Sides:

The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four home games.
The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 19 games as favorites.
The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in eight of their last 13 games.
The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.
The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
The Raiders are 14-9-1 ATS at home over their last 24 games. They are 5-6-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-9 straight up.
Over the last three seasons...Geno Smith is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog (7-5 straight up).

Totals:

Each of the Commanders’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 9-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 21-6 toward the OVER.
Seven of the Raiders' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
9 of the Raiders’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Jayden Daniels was ruled out for this game on Friday. As a result, the Commanders shifted from a once-touchdown-plus favorite to an FG-favorite at home. Washington is playing at home with extra rest, but missing their best player is so critical. I think Daniels masks so much of what the Commanders lack. Keep in mind, they are the NFL's oldest team. Now the Raiders are catching points likely because Geno Smith is coming off a horrendous Monday Night Football game. And they are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast, playing in the early 1 PM ET time slot. Don't care. Just two weeks ago, the Raiders went to New England as underdogs and won outright. I think they can do it again against an overvalued Commanders team that isn't being punished enough for the loss of their star QB. Mariota has a losing betting record both SU and ATS in his career (BetMGM). He's only been profitable as an underdog...not as a favorite. Meanwhile, chef Geno Smith cooks as a road underdog.

Give me the Black Hole all day with the points and to win outright.

Prop Angles:

The Raiders rank 3rd in PROE. The Commanders were destroyed by tight end Tucker Kraft in Week 2 (124 receiving yards).
Brock Bowers has been practicing in limited capacity last week after missing almost of all last week with his knee injury. With better health in a plus matchup, Bowers should FLY over 55.5 yards.
He's over 58.5 yards in 8/15 games. Also averaging 70-plus rec yards in his NFL career.

Erickson’s Props:

Brock Bowers: Over 58.5 receiving yards

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Rams +3.5

(Lean Rams team total over 20.5)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

Rams can beat any team when Matthew Stafford is healthy.
Almost beat the Eagles last season in the playoffs.
LA under Stafford/McVay thrive ATS on the road.
- The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games. The Rams have won six of their last seven road games.

Trends

Sides:

The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games.
The Rams have won six of their last seven road games.
The favorites have won 27 of the Rams' last 31 games.
The Rams have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
The Rams have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as road favorites.
Since 2024, the Rams are 7-4 as underdogs ATS (64%)
The Eagles have won 18 of their last 19 games.
In eight of the Eagles’ last nine games, the first score has been an Eagles touchdown.
The Eagles have won 17 of their last 23 games as favorites.
The Eagles have scored first in nine of their last 10 games.
The Eagles are 7-15-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (30%).
They covered just seven spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
The Eagles are 17-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (70%).
The underdogs have covered the spread in 16 of the Eagles’ last 28 games.
The Eagles covered four of their last six games when favored by 4.5 points or more at home since the start of 2024.
The average margin of victory in those contests was greater than nine points. The Eagles are 18-13 ATS as home favorites in their last 31 games (58%).
The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record.
The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.

Totals:

Seven of the Eagles' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Eagles are 4-8 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (44.5 PPG).
10 of the Eagles' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Seven of the Eagles’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Eagles are 16-22 O/U since the start of 2023. They are 7-13 toward the over on the road.
The Eagles have hit the first quarter OVER in eight of 9 games (10 or more points) – excluding Week 18 (rested starters in 2024).
Five of the Eagles’ last six games as favorites against the Rams have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the Rams' last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Ten of the Rams’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%).

Overall:

Give me the Rams as a live dog. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are road warriors ATS. When Stafford is healthy, this team can go H2H with anybody in the NFL and Philly's offense feels a tick off after two emotional games. The passing game still feels like a work in progress (although this is a good spot for them admittedly). I love LAR +3.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline. The Rams came so close to upsetting the Eagles last year in the postseason, out-gaining the Eagles. But two costly turnovers and huge 60-plus yard rushes from Saquon Barkley sealed their fate. In the 3^rd matchup between these two teams since the start of 2024...I like the Rams to even the score here. The key number is 20 points, as we have seen teams that surpass this number consistently cover the spread versus Philly. The Rams have a 20.5-point implied team total. I like the over on that and for them to score at least 3 TDs.

Prop Angles:

Matthew Stafford has gone for more than 1.5 passing TDs in 9 of his last 14 (64%) games. He had 2 passing TDs in both games vs Eagles in 2024. 5 of his last 6 games as an underdog? At least two passing TDs. Also…Davante Adams is a red zone beast. 5 RZ targets for Adams last week (4 inside the 10-yard line).
Only one offense has failed to throw a TD this season…the Eagles. The Rams have allowed 100% of their TDs to go through the air. Something has to give…AJB WR1 szn. There’s no bigger mismatch this week than 6-foot 226-pound Eagles WR AJ Brown versus 6-foot-1 166-pound Rams CB Emmanuel Forbes.
DeVonta Smith went under 4.5 catches in all but one game last season when AJB and Dallas Goedert were in the lineup. So far this season he is under 4.5 catches in both games (3 and 4). With DG back and likely to play...just going right back to the Smith under receptions prop.

Erickson’s Props:

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Falcons Team Total over 24.5 points

(Lean game total over 43.5)

Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)

Why:

Panthers defense ranks 30th in run defense EPA.
Atlanta scored 38 points in both games versus the Panthers in 2024.
Each of the Panthers’ last seven games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Trends

Sides:

The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Falcons and Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
The Panthers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
The Falcons are 12-23-1 ATS since the start of 2023 (2nd-worst).
On the road over that span? 6-10-1 (33%).

Totals:

Each of the Panthers’ last seven games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
13 of the Panthers’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Be Cautious. The 4.5-point spread in a divisional game + ATL's red-zone stalls make this a stay-away for sides. The Falcons' defense is improved (hello pass rush). If anything, I'd consider totals/alt markets in a four-outcome game. The Falcons’ running game should run wild, but I wouldn't count out the Panthers’ offense entirely. This will be their first home game of the season, so they could play much better after two road games. And the underdogs have dominated this matchup in recent years. IE... don't invest too heavily in the Dirty Birds. The Panthers played terribly last week and still covered the +7. When these teams played last season...both games flew way over the total. Atlanta scored 38 points in both games. Carolina has allowed 26-plus points in both games this season. The Falcons' team total at 24.5 points seems like a strong bet given we know the Panthers defense can't stop anybody. Let others take the risk of Young's 1^st start at home in 2025. The Cardiac Cats are a frisky bunch, and I think there’s some semblance to them "forcing" Atlanta to keep their foot on the gas pedal. But what worries me about the full-blown bet on the game total over is that Carolina is down two starting offensive linemen: Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt.

Prop Angles:

Ja'Tavion Sanders leads all TEs in red-zone targets through two games (4). He hasn't scored yet. Nothing says four-outcome game than a TD from a tight end at long-shot odds (+400).
Not to mention, Sanders went for 3-plus catches in both games against the Falcons last season. The Panthers’ second-year TE has a sneaky busy day in Week 2: 7 catches on 10 targets for 54 yards (66% snaps)
Falcons No. 1 CB, AJ Terrell, is out for the Falcons. Get ready for Tetairoa McMillan to continue feasting. He's over 68 yards in two straight games, averaging 9.5 targets per game.

Erickson’s Props:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Under 42.5

(Also officially on Vikings ML + Under 50.5)
Confidence: ★★★(3 out of 5)

Why:

Bet against two backup QBs on scoring a ton of points
Minnesota home game skew heavily toward unders. Especially when they are at home.
Jake Browning lead Bengals offenses went 1-2 O/U on the road in 2023.

Trends

Sides:

The Bengals have won each of their last seven games.
The Bengals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 road games.
Jake Browning finished 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in seven starts for Cincinnati in 2023 (BetMGM). Browning finished 2-1-1 ATS as a market favorite compared to 1-2 ATS as a dog. He was an underdog on the road and often fell short of expectations.
The Vikings have won five of their last six home games.
The Vikings have won 10 of their last 13 games.
The Vikings have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
All but 11 of the Vikings’ last 34 games have been decided by eight points or fewer.

Totals:

Nine of the Vikings’ last 10 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
The 2024 Vikings are 6-3 U/O at home, averaging under 47 points per game since the start of 2024.
The Vikings are 6-10 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023
75% under hit rate as a home favorite (2-6).
8 of the Bengals’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
10 of the Bengals’ last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The battle of the backups. Carson Wentz versus Jake Browning. But with Browning in for the Bengals instead of Joe Burrow, I am expecting the Bengals’ offense to be impacted substantially. I am trusting Brian Flores' defense at home to muck it up. Expect market volatility off Browning's 2023 tape.

In fact, this is a rematch of a 2023 game between these two teams. Bengals won 27-24 outright in OT as 3-point favorites at home. It was Browning versus Nick Mullens.

That game went down to the wire.

Now it's Carson Wentz instead of Mullens. I like the idea of backing the backup QB at home versus the home playing at home going up against a Brian Flores-led defense. Understandably, the Vikings’ passing game has struggled with JJ McCarthy. But he is a young, inexperienced QB. After ranking 32^nd in passing efficiency through two games, I think a veteran like Carson Wentz can right the ship and run Kevin O'Connell's offense at a high level. He is also a weapon with his legs. Christian Darrisaw should also return to the starting lineup to help bolster the OL (questionable). The Bengals will be without first-round rookie, Shermar Stewart and No.1 CB Cam Taylor-Britt in this matchup.

If it's just an FG I have to lay in a Kevin O'Connell Zac Taylor matchup...I'll take the reigning coach of the year at home.

I like the Vikings to win this game, but I'd prefer to get the -2.5. If not, I'd be happy to move to Vikings ML and pair it with the total going under 50.5 points (-105). That will be the official play for this contest alongside the game total under 42.5 points. Just bet against two backup QBs underwhelming (behind bad o-lines which is why they are playing anyway) and both teams leaning more into their rushing attacks to keep points at bay.

Prop Angles:

Kevin O'Connell said this week that Carson Wentz's ability to show up with his legs will be similar to what they did with Sam Darnold in 2024. Darnold had a 61% hit rate at 10 rushing yards last season. Wentz didn't hit this high of a rushing total in his last start...but the last time he played in a Sean McVay style offense...he totaled 17 Carries for 56 yards in 2023 with the Rams.
At 10.5 rushing yards…Wentz is 68% toward the over (15/22) since he left the Eagles.
Stealing this prop from my BP colleague on the Weekly Props show…Chris Welsh. Bet the T.J. Hockenson overs. Wentz loves to target TEs (one of the highest target rates to TEs). And the Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL defending TEs. Buy the dip on Hock after he was a non-factor with JJ McCarthy under center.
The projections across the board agree that the Hockenson OVER is an ultra smash.

Erickson’s Props:

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Lean Texans ML (+110)
Confidence: ★★ (2 out of 5)
Why:

The Texans own the Jaguars in Jacksonville
The Texans are 9-3 ATS in the AFC South since 2023.
The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games following a home loss.

Trends

Sides:

The Texans have won each of their last 11 road games against AFC South opponents.
The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games following a home loss.
The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last 9 games as underdogs following a loss.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 22 games and are 8-12-1 ATS since the start of 2024.
The Texans are 9-3 ATS in the AFC South since 2023.
As road underdogs in the CJ Stroud era....7-5 ATS (4-8 straight up).
Thirteen of the Texans’ last 20 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in 8 of their last 12 games.
The Jaguars have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games following a loss.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 10-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (9-7 ATS).

Totals:

Five of the last six games between the Texans and Jaguars have gone UNDER the total points line.
14 of the Texans' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
10 of the Jaguars’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Are the Texans really going to start 0-3? It's been a rough two weeks for this unit, but it's not to say they have been getting blown out by bad teams. They've lost two games against some strong NFC competition by a total of six points. And given that they were both NFC matchups...it really doesn't impact Houston's standing in the AFC. Plenty of time for them to right the ship en route to a third straight AFC South division title.

It’s essentially a pick 'em with the Jaguars as 1.5-point favorites at home. But the trends strongly suggest that this is the right spot for Houston...as this matchup in Jacksonville has typically resulted in a Texans win (respect the AFC South flow chart). They've won 9 of the last 10 in Duval County.

I think the best unit in this game is the Texans’ defense. And I'll take C.J. Stroud over Trevor Lawrence as the superior QB. Houston will also be getting some reinforcements back in the lineup with WR Christian Kirk and C Jake Andrews.

And that's why I lean toward them to come away with the road victory. But it figures to be a nail-biter, which is pretty typical of these two teams going head-to-head.

Prop Angles:

According to Next Gen Stats, The Texans defense has played zone coverage on 83.1% of opposing dropbacks this season, the 5th-highest rate in the league. For comparison, they used zone coverage on 72.4% of dropbacks in 2024.
Trevor Lawrence has averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt against zone coverage this season, the 4th-lowest in the league. All three of his interceptions have come against zone, tied for the most in the NFL.
T-Law has thrown three picks this season, and has been intercepted in 8 of his last 10 games played.
Bookmakers better watch themselves with the Nico Collins receiving yards props. It's moved down to 71.5 yards after two underwhelming performances. Collins owns the Jags, though, with 100-plus yards in his 3 games versus them. Both opposing WRs1 that have faced the Jags this season have gone over their receiving yards totals (Chase, McMillan)

Erickson’s Props:

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: (Alt Browns +14.5 + Under 46.5)
Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Why:

Browns defense and home-field advantage being under-valued by the market.
Packers have not played on the road yet this season.
Defense highlights the strengths of both these teams.

Trends

Sides:

In each of the Browns’ last 11 games, their opponents have scored first.
The Browns have lost each of their last eight games.
The Browns have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
The Browns are 5-5 over their last 10 games as home underdogs.
The Browns have covered the spread in 9 of their last 15 home games.
The Browns have won five of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record.
The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 home games against teams with winning records.
The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites.
Since 2023, the Packers have been 20-3 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-6 ATS. Green Bay is 4-12 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
The favorites have won 14 of the Packers’ last 16 games.
Green Bay is 2-4 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 5-1 on the money line since 2023.

Totals:

Five of the Packers’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Packers are 22-17 toward the over since the start of 2023.
Five of the Browns' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line (11 of last 18)
Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 13-5 for the under at home.

Overall:

Unless this line moves dramatically to the Browns +10 (I love my home double-digit underdogs), I am staying far away. The strengths of both these teams are on defense, so I could very much see this game being kept much closer than the 8.5-point spread suggests. Keep in mind that this will be the first time the Packers will play on the road this season.

My issue with backing the Browns at +8.5, though, is that Joe Flacco’s turnovers can kill you. And he has been terrible under pressure.

Per Next Gen Stats... Flacco has completed just 16 of 33 passes (48.5%) when under pressure, accumulating 150 passing yards and three interceptions.

His 23.5 passer rating under pressure represents 40.1 rating decrease from his 63.5 average passer rating under pressure over the previous seven seasons.

Guy looks like a 40-year-old QB trying to move out of the pocket.

Last week, the Browns’ defense played relatively well until turnovers shifted the tide entirely.

And these Cleveland defense gets up for home matchups. 61% ATS home record since 2023. Matt LaFleur is lights out in September...but I can't just turn a blind eye to the stark Packers ATS record as road favorites (25% ATS). GB might be without another top playmaker in tight end Tucker Kraft (note: Saturday update that he’s expected to play), who has been their leading receiver with all the WR injuries.

I think the best thing to do here is to bring the total up to 46.5 and go under...while giving the Browns +14.5 for a -110 payout.

That will be the official play for this game. Along with a player prop that I am also very confident in…

Prop Angles:

Because I think this game could be tighter (at least not a complete blowout) I'd anticipate that the Browns look to try and establish a run game. Quinshon Judkins got a lot of run last week despite a blowout loss on the road. Now at home, I think the bar is set too low for Judkins to just see one more carry than he earned in Week 2. He had one padded practice under his belt before taking 10 carries.
Judkins started Week 2 (although Jerome Ford was also in the backfield). Finished with the aforementioned 10 carries for 61 yards (6.1 YPC), plus four targets (3-10). The big 31-yd run in Q4 was the highlight, but it definitely came in some garbage time as Dillon Gabriel was in at QB. First half: only six carries for 20 yards - production ticked up late when the game was out of reach. 27% snap share (20 snaps). Judkins got the start despite being noted as on a "pitch count" prior to kick off. Still led the team in 1st-half carries (3.3 ypc). All in all, a solid debut for Judkins. 27% snap share. Broadcast was vocal about how he was there "mentally" with the playbook despite so much missed time.
I was surprised by how much he was involved as a receiver, running the same number of routes as Ford. I'd expect Ford's snaps to decline, given his first carry didn't come until the 2-minute drill. We should see a 1A-1B between Judkins/Sampson at some point; it's just a matter of how quickly the Browns want to phase out Ford. There is also still a strong likelihood that Judkins will get suspended. In the meantime, his stock is up. I'd expect a workload increase in Week 3 after a full week of practice. The Browns need to see what they have of Judkins while they have him in case he does get suspended later on. Take the over on his Week 3 carries.

Erickson’s Props:

Quinshon Judkins: Over 10.5 rushing attempts

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Over 45.5

Lean (Broncos +3)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

Sean Payton dominates in Week 3 ATS
Chargers' home-field advantage is overrated
Both games went over the total last season, with the highest scoring game at SoFi Stadium.
Broncos have played 4 dome games since start of last season. 4-0 toward the over.

Trends

Sides:

The home team has won each of the Broncos’ last eight games.
The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last six games against AFC West opponents.

The Chargers are 14-6 ATS since the start of 2024 with Jim Harbaugh as HC.
5-1 ATS as a home favorite overall and ATS.
The Chargers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games.
The Chargers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games.
The favorites have covered the spread in 15 of the Chargers’ last 20 games.
The Chargers have won nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.

Totals:

Each of the Chargers’ last five games at SoFi Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Chargers' last seven games has gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the Broncos' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Dare we fade Sean Payton in Week 3 of the regular season? Because the trends say that's a bad move to make. I remember BettingPros' own Matt Perrault mentioning this last year on the Daily Juice podcast, so I did more digging. According to the Action Network...Payton is 12-5 ATS in Week 3 and 12-4-1 ATS in Week 4. After starting the season 0-2 ATS - I guess to be expected for Payton-led teams - this seems like the spot for him to right the ship against a high-flying Chargers team looking for its third straight divisional win.

I've gone 0-2 betting on Payton the last two weeks. And I've felt burned because the Broncos could have easily covered both games. But the self-inflicted mistakes blew those bets. But I should have foreseen this, given how bad Payton is to start the year.

After starting 0-2 last year, Denver traveled to TB and won outright as 6-point underdogs.

So instead of hopping off the wagon now, I am tripling down, going back to Denver +3 against the Chargers’ off short-rest.

Third time’s the charm, right?

Jokes aside, I actually think that the over is the way to go here. Both LAC and DEN rank inside the top-7 in pass rate over expectation.

And both of these matchups last season went over the closing total (36 and 41.5, respectively).

It's up to 45.5 now, but I still like the over.

No Khalil Mack for the Chargers on defense. And no Dre Greenlaw for the Broncos D.

Prop Angles:

Courtland Sutton has recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last eight games as underdogs.
Bo Nix has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Broncos’ last six games against AFC West opponents. Nix has recorded 215+ passing yards in each of the Broncos’ last five games against AFC West opponents.
Nix in four NFL dome games, 7-1 TD-INT ratio. 906 passing yards (226.5 per game).
The Broncos and Nix cut it loose more when they are underdogs. He has hit his rushing prop in 8/10 games which he has been an underdog. That includes both matchups versus LAC last season.
And this year, both QBs that LAC has faced have exceeded their rushing yards props by an average of 26 rushing yards.

Erickson’s Props:

Bo Nix over 20.5 rushing yards

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Seahawks -7
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

Spencer Rattler is 1-7 ATS as a starter. The Saints also lost by at least 8 points in all of their road starts last year.
Seahawks defense leads the NFL in pressure rate.
The Saints defense is allowing 5.5 ypc and a top-10 rushing success rate against outside runs.

Trends

Sides:

The road team has won each of the Seahawks’ last eight games.
The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as favorites.
Each of the Seahawks’ last five home games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Seahawks have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games.
The favorites have won 27 of the Seahawks' last 34 games.
The Saints have lost each of their last six games.
The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Saints’ last 12 games.
The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
The Saints have lost 14 of their last 17 games.

Totals:

Six of the Saints' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Eight of the Seahawks’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Seahawks' last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall

The Saints have been kind of a plucky team so far this season. Spencer Rattler has been running this fast-paced up-tempo offense under new HC Kellen Moore. Targets galore for all the top playmakers in New Orleans. But how will the next "greatest show on turf" fare in the Pacific Northwest? Keep in mind that we haven't seen the Saints play outdoors yet this season. And yet...they are still 0-2 ATS despite comfortable circumstances.

This just seems like the spot where we see more of what was expected from Rattler. According to Next Gen Stats, the Seahawks have generated pressure on 49.4% of drop backs so far this season, the highest mark in the NFL. The Seahawks have blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league (13.0%), using four or fewer rushers to collect 31 total pressures, the most pressures without blitzing by a Seahawks team through the first two weeks of a season since 2018. Spencer Rattler completed 20 of 26 attempts for 160 yards against four or fewer rushers in Week 2. Despite his completion percentage (76.9%), Rattler had a 34.5% success rate on these plays, a mark below the league average (45.5%).

I'm the last guy you would figure to lay a touchdown at home for a Sam Darnold-led team. But Klint Kubiak (former OC of the Saints) knows these defensive personnel that haven't changed too drastically since last season (especially the DL). With Zach Charbonnet doubtful, I think this is Kenneth Walker III’s monster game incoming.

Maybe not to the extent of a "Beast Quake" game...but you better believe K9 is going to deliver massively with the backfield all but his in Week 3.

Prop Angles:

Kenneth Walker III has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six September appearances. Ergo, when he's healthy, this man finds paydirt.

KW3 burned us last week with just one catch, but I'm going right back to it. Backfield is all his and he has gone over 2.5 receptions in 8/13 games played. Both RBs the Saints have faced this season have also gone over their receptions prop.

Erickson’s Props:

Kenneth Walker over 2.5 receptions

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys ML (-112)
Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

Bears are better ATS as a favorite than underdog.
Since 2023…Dallas is 4-2 ATS as a away favorite.
Two bad defenses suggests this game comes down to the better QB under center.

Trends

Sides:

Per the Action Network...Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the afternoon or primetime window (4 p.m. ET or later), and the Bears are 0-7 SU in those games, losing those seven games by an average of 11.1 PPG.
The Bears have lost 12 of their last 13 games.
The Bears are 13-13-1 ATS and 11-16 straight up in their last 27 games.
The home team has covered the spread in 16 of the Bears' last 23 games.
The Bears have won eight of their last 14 home games.
The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as favorites.
Caleb Williams is 4-2 ATS as a favorite. Chicago is 6-5-1 ATS as a favorite. Too bad they aren’t favorites anymore…
Williams is 5-7 ATS as an underdog.
Dallas was 5-8 ATS and 4-9 straight up as a road underdog in their last 12 appearances (before Dak Prescott's injury in 2024).
Dallas is 5-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of 2024. Since 2023…4-2 ATS as a away favorite.
The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last four games after coming off overtime.

Totals:

13 of the Cowboys' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Bears are 15-9-1 under the point total in their last 24 games.
The Bears are 5-4 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 41 points per game (PPG).

Overall:

Give me Dallas. I trust Dak over Caleb Williams here despite the Cowboys' secondary issues. The Bears have their own defensive injuries to worry about. T.J. Edwards, Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson etc.

I'm backing the Cowboys to win. And the market has finally caught up here as Dallas has now emerged as slight road favorites (-1.5) after sitting as +1.5 underdogs for the majority of the week. We lose a bit of value here without Dallas +1.5 anymore, but a win is a win for Big D. Just take them on the moneyline.

And if you really do want the better number…we have a live bet opportunity here. The Bears’ offense has started out hot under Ben Johnson, than fizzled out. Take the Cowboys at some better odds after kick off…Then turn to back the boys and Prescott in a potential shootout.

Prop Angles:

Ben Johnson is trying everything in his capacity to get Caleb Williams' pass completions up. Given the total we should expect a lot fo pass attempts from the Bears QB and that should position him to get over 21.5 completions. He's been close at 21 and 19 the last two weeks. Williams also plays better at home and faces a DAL defense that ranks 31st in completion percentage faced this season.

Erickson’s Props:

Caleb Williams: OVER 21.5 completions

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Cardinals +2.5

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)
Why:

Kyler Murray has a solid track record vs the Niners and also plays better earlier in the season.
49ers are overrated ATS at home, while Cardinals are excellent ATS on the road.

Trends

Sides:

The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine home games following a win.
The 49ers have lost each of their last four home games against NFC West opponents.
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with winning records.
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 16 home games.
The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
In 2024, they went 4-5 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears but not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle/L.A. Rams/Lions
The 49ers have covered the spread four times in their last 16 home games.
San Francisco is 16-9 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
The Cardinals have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 games.
The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 road games.
The Cardinals have been an UNDER machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-11-1).

Totals:

Six of the last seven games between the Cardinals and 49ers have gone OVER the total points line.
Six of the 49ers' last seven games following a win has gone UNDER the total points line.
14 of the 49ers’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

You guys already know I’m on the Cardinals side. Kyler-in-September mode + soft early schedule was the pre-season thesis; I'm still riding Arizona in this spot as a live home underdog with my 11-1 ticket for them to start the season 5-0. Mac Jones will start for the 49ers, so I like my chances of Arizona coming away with the upset on the road. The 49ers also tend to be the most overrated team ATS when they play at home. Throw in Jones getting some much love after beating the Saints…this smells like an upset special and a 3-0 start for the Red Birds.

Prop Angles:

Erickson’s Props: