NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Falcons vs Saints Picks

Welcome back to another edition of our NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Saints will be hosting the Falcons on the 20th anniversary of the “Domecoming” game that reopened the Superdome in 2006, a 23-3 Saints victory on Monday Night Football in their first game in the building after Hurricane Katrina. Since that game, the Saints are 5-1 against the Falcons in primetime home games, the second-best record by any team against a single opponent in that span. Only the Eagles (7-1 against the Giants) have a better record among such matchups played at least five times.

Who Dat Nation? Or the underdog Dirty Birds on Monday Night Football?

Let’s dive in.

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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Falcons vs Saints Picks

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Picks: Saints -2.5, Over 47.5 Points

Trends

ATL current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game win streak), 1-2 against the spread (ATS), with a one-game cover streak, 1-2 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
NO current streaks through Week 3: 1-2 straight up (one-game losing streak), 2-1 ATS (one-game non-cover streak), 2-1 toward the total (one-game Over streak).
ATL is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U as the road team in 2026 (through Week 3). As an underdog specifically, ATL is 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U in 2026.
NO is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U as the home team in 2026 (through Week 3). As a favorite specifically, NO is 0-1 ATS and 1-0 O/U in 2026.
ATL as road underdog: 5-1 ATS since 2025; 4-6 O/U.
Atlanta since 2025: 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Six of the Saints' last seven home games have gone Under the total (1-6 Over/6-1 Under).
More broadly, 17 of New Orleans' last 23 games have gone UNDER.

Injuries

Saints and Falcons injury report pic.twitter.com/XCtwu4dC6M

— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) October 1, 2026

Betting Preview

I like the Saints laying less than a field goal at home here - I still think they’re the better team even after the loss to Las Vegas, and I don’t want to overreact to Atlanta torching a Packers team that’s looked genuinely bad so far. That said, I expect points indoors, despite the Saints’ underwhelming totals in recent home games: Both offenses have real playmakers in a fast dome, and I think the total will climb closer to 48 before kickoff, so I like the over at 46.5. That was the take last Monday, and the total has moved slightly up to 47.5 points.

Raiders-Saints turned into a shootout (63 points), but New Orleans fell short of their ninth consecutive cover (Saints are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine games). Back at home as favorites, I still think they are the sharp side to be on. They have played in some crazy games so far this season with chances to win in all three contests. Last week, New Orleans led 27-22 after three quarters and lost in the fourth quarter on turnovers, not execution - Tyler Shough fumbled twice on sacks, and New Orleans lost three of its four fumbles overall, directly setting up two of Las Vegas' three fourth-quarter scores.

And let’s not undersell how revved up this crowd will be for their first primetime home game on Monday Night Football.

But I do think this game stays tight between division rivals. The Falcons have been profitable as underdogs, especially with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Penix is now 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2025 (4-2 toward the under on the road) after his first start in Green Bay in Week 3. But Shough has also been a solid bet, starting his career 9-3 ATS. And although the Falcons swept the Saints last season (1-1 ATS), Shough has improved dramatically since last season. Penix was also not the Atlanta quarterback in either of the Falcons’ 2025 wins over the Saints.

A 5-star bet, according to this week’s prop bet cheat sheet: Alvin Kamara UNDER 11.5 rush attempts. Kamara has gone under this number in the last three games he played alongside a healthy Kendre Miller last season. The last three backs to face the Falcons’ elite run defense have all gone UNDER their projected carry totals.

This backfield was already a full-blown committee before Travis Etienne Jr.'s injury, so I'd expect more of the same over the next few weeks. Week 3 was the first time that Miller and Kamara played together this season, and Kamara out-touched Miller 10-6 (the latter was used more in the receiving game). I'd expect Kamara to be used more as a receiver in the coming weeks, with Miller getting more rushing opportunities (similar to how they were deployed last season). Therefore, Kamara’s 11.5 rushing number looks bloated.

In Weeks 4-6 last season, during Miller's last three healthy games, he carried the ball 29 times for 127 rushing yards, compared with Kamara's 33 carries for 128 rushing yards (four or more catches in all three games). That equates to 11 carries per game, just under his 11.5 listed rushing attempts prop.

Juwan Johnson has caught at least four passes in two straight games. He also hit the over in nine out of 11 games since Shough took over as the team’s starting quarterback last season. The Falcons are a pass-funnel defense (league-high 73% pass rate faced this season), and the Saints cannot run the football.

Ergo, saddle up for the over on Shough pass attempts for another week.

The last three tight ends to face Atlanta this year have hit the over on their receptions prop.

CJ Donaldson has a very specific role on the Saints: Short-yardage back. He has four carries this season: 3rd & 1, 3rd & 1, 3rd & 1, 1st-and-goal. He converted all three downs and gained 5 yards on the 1st-and-goal from the 6-yard line. As a result, he has a 100% rushing success rate and will continue to be featured as the Saints’ short-yardage and goal-line back. Bet his anytime touchdown scorer prop (+800) and sprinkle on him in the first touchdown market as a longshot bet (40-1).