The WNBA playoff semifinals get underway today. Let’s add some Market-based EV WNBA picks for today’s two-game slate. You can never have too many positive-EV plays.
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Sunday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Jordin Canada Under 10.5 Points (+128 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: +109
- Market EV: +9%
Jordan Canada has scored at least 11 points in seven of her last 10 games. She’s coming off 19 points against Washington on September 30th. She took over the fourth quarter, but the competition level is about to get harder against the Liberty.
Canada has averaged 10.1 points in her last 17 games against the Liberty, hitting the over on this prop just 41% of the time against the Liberty. She gets 19% of her points from the foul line, but the Liberty are usually good at keeping guards off the line.
Consider betting her to go under 10.5 points at +128 odds at ProphetX. The fair value is +109, yielding a 9% EV for this play.
Pauline Astier Under 7.5 Points (+125 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +109
- Market EV: +8%
Pauline Astier hasn’t scored more than seven points in three consecutive games. The Liberty guard has had some standout games in September, but hasn’t been shooting the ball much. The minutes will be there, but the points will lag, especially in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, you can bet on Astier to go under 7.5 points at +125 at NoVig; the fair value is +109. That’s a very good 8% market EV. Consider adding her under to your betting portfolio today.
A’ja Wilson Under 9.5 Rebounds (+133 at Kalshi)
- Fair Value: +118
- Market EV: +7%
A’ja Wilson has recorded at least 10 rebounds in four of the last five games. But she’s still hit this line in just four of her last 10 games. In those last 10 games, Wilson has averaged just 8.8 rebounds. Additionally, in her last game against Golden State, Wilson recorded only nine rebounds in 31 minutes of game action. She hit unders across the board in that game.
This won’t be easy for Wilson. Her rebounds prop is listed at 9.5 on Kalshi, with the odds at +133 to the under. The fair value is +118, giving this play a 7% market EV. This is another strong play to consider while you can get it.
