Last week’s Thursday Night Football contest between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos was a snoozefest from a touchdown scoring perspective, as the game finished with just two total touchdowns. Denver and Las Vegas combined for 16 three-and-outs in 26 drives, but I did cash a +180 anytime touchdown scorer play on one of the game’s two touchdowns.
Points again could be at a premium in the Week 11 Thursday Night Football divisional battle between the New York Jets and New England Patriots, as the game has a projected total of 43.5 points. With the Patriots being the only double-digit favorite of the week, most of my touchdown scorer picks revolve around them.
Let’s dive into our top NFL Thursday Night Football TD scorer picks.
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NFL Thursday Night Football TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
TreVeyon Henderson First-Half Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
The Patriots’ offense is catching fire late in the season. They totaled 436 yards last week on the road against the Buccaneers after entering the game with the 10th-best offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
Running back TreVeyon Henderson turned 15 touches into 150 yards, the most anyone has had against Tampa Bay this season. Henderson flashed his big-play ability with touchdowns of 55 and 69 yards. He became the first running back to average over 10 yards per carry on inside and outside runs in the same game.
Henderson has a 59.4% snap share since Week 8 (33.3% in Weeks 1-7), and has averaged 7.3 yards per carry over the last three games. By comparison, backfield teammate Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Only Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs have reached a higher top speed than Henderson. Backing him to score in the first half is a great way to mitigate his steep -185 anytime touchdown odds.
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Stefon Diggs has the shortest anytime touchdown odds of any non-running back in this game. The +130 odds are a steal when he has the MVP frontrunner throwing him the ball.
Drake Maye ranks fifth in total quarterback rating (72), and his 48 total quarterback rating when pressured ranks seventh. Last week alone, Maye had 167 passing yards when under duress, which were the second-most by a Patriots quarterback when under duress over the last 10 seasons. While he was pressured on a season-high 47% of dropbacks against Tampa Bay, I expect many more clean pockets against a Jets front that shipped off Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.
Diggs has the second-highest catch rate in the NFL and is on pace for 85 catches and 942 yards. I am banking on him to score a touchdown for the fourth consecutive game.
Mason Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
The Patriots’ defense hasn’t allowed more than 100 rushing yards since Week 5 in Buffalo. While Jets quarterback Justin Fields only tallied 54 passing yards on six completions last week, it is still worth looking at New York’s pass-catchers to score an anytime touchdown, not its best playmaker, Breece Hall.
With the news that top wide receiver Garrett Wilson will likely miss the next month with an injury, that leaves tight end Mason Taylor as the top option in the passing game. Taylor was one of two Jets who saw more than one target last week. At the very least, his lone touchdown of the season came within the last two games.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.