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NFL Week 12 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)

by November 21, 2022
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Week 11 had some surprising final scores, but three stood out above the rest. The Detroit Lions won their third in a row, both straight up and against the spread, defeating the New York Giants 31-18. The Philadelphia Eagles, the team with the best record in football, barely made it out of Indianapolis with a win. Finally, as two-point road favorites, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Minnesota Vikings by 37.

Here is a look at some early Week 12 lines and where you should expect them to move.

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

The Lions have won three games in a row, yet they face their steepest point spread of the season. The Lions have only been underdogs six or more three times this season. They have covered two of those games.

The Bills navigated a tricky week and will now play a road game on the same field they called home this past Sunday. The Bills have been favorites of 10 points or greater four times this season. They are 0-2 in their last two such games.

The Lions have covered three spreads in a row, and as a home underdog in a very public game, look for them to see a lot of action as the week goes on. You should get in now if you want to get them at the key number.

Current Line: Bills -10
Predicted Final Line: Bills -9

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Oddsmakers let us know that the Vikings were in for a trap game on Sunday, but did anyone expect the Cowboys to win by 37 points? They were a well-oiled machine from their opening drive until there was no time left on the clock, and thanks to the Lions, they are now tied for second place with the Giants in the NFC East.

The Giants did not look good at all against the Lions on Sunday. They led at the end of the first quarter before Detroit scored three consecutive touchdowns to open up an 18-point lead. Earlier in the season, when these two teams met without Dak Prescott on the field and with the Giants favored, the Cowboys won by seven.

This may point to everything working in the Cowboys’ favor, but this spread is too large. Week 11’s game was the first one decided by more than one score all season for the Giants. Anything can happen in an NFC East rivalry, and bettors know that.

Current Line: Cowboys -8
Predicted Final Line: Cowboys -7

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

What were the Ravens doing against the Panthers on Sunday? They escaped with a 10-point win, but they looked terrible on the offensive side of the ball.

The Jaguars have been a bit of an overvalued team this season, but it seems that Oddsmakers have overcorrected in the opposite direction this week. With how bad the Ravens looked in Week 11 and with the Jaguars coming off a bye, expect this line to shrink, potentially to the key number.

Current Line: Ravens -4.5
Predicted Final Line: Ravens -3.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders pulled off a miracle to win their third game of the season in Denver. Oddsmakers are now giving them the hook against the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks, who are coming off their bye.

The Raiders’ cover on Sunday was just their fourth of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have covered six spreads this season, but they are 1-1 against the spread when favored.

When looking at records and how the Seahawks have played at home this season, there is no reason to think that bettors will back the Raiders even with the hook. This could get as high as five before it starts to drift back in favor of the Raiders.

Current Line: Seahawks -3.5
Predicted Final Line: Seahawks -4.5

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

After the last two weeks, is anyone confident that the Eagles are the best team in football? They led for just the final 1:20 against the Colts, one week after trailing for the final 30+ minutes against the Commanders.

They now have to take on a desperate Green Bay Packers team whose season is all but over if they lose on Sunday night. The Packers are 4-7 straight up and against the spread this season.

This feels like one of those lines where Oddsmakers are begging us to take the Eagles at home, which makes it all the more suspicious. Look for this to briefly jump to the key number before falling in favor of the Packers for the rest of the week.

Current Line: Eagles -6.5
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Both the Steelers and Colts hung tough with their far superior opponents in Week 11, but neither group could come away with a win. The Colts have covered against the spread in their last two games, while the Steelers have covered in three of their last five.

Consistency is what makes it hard to back either of these teams, as, despite their recent records against the spread, neither team has exhibited much to allow bettors to confidently back them. Yet, since Jeff Saturday took over as the interim head coach, he has the Colts playing really sound football. Sound football is more than enough to beat the Steelers.

Look for this line to move through the key number as kickoff approaches.

Current Line: Colts -2.5
Predicted Final Line: Colts -3.5

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