NFL Week 4 Picks, Predictions and Parlays

Greetings, friends. Welcome to Week 4 of my weekly NFL sports betting column. After a solid Week 1 and a down Week 2, we limped into Week 3 up just one unit through the first two weeks. Well, we are BACK ON TOP. In Week 3, we went off to the tune of 24-18, UP 10.6 units, with a 34.34% ROI. We cashed three of the four posted parlays (two flex and one 3-pick power), which helped our overall bottom line.

The only bummer from last week is that Underdog changed their payouts yet again, meaning 4-pick flex slips are no longer -107 and no longer the best price in the space. Instead, we’re back to -115 2-pick power plays. Which is fine. Lower payout but higher winning percentage, which always feels good. Here’s where we stand after three weeks:

• Week 1: 48-38, +5u
• Week 2: 35-42, -4u
• Week 3: 24-18, +10.6u

Overall: 107-98, +11.6u

As I mentioned last week, the total units are a little tricky to calculate because they usually include some cross-sport parlays and because some plays are used multiple times. So I try to take the most honest approach and grade each play individually at the odds I got. If it’s an all-NFL parlay, I’ll list it in the parlays section and grade it accordingly. Otherwise, we’ll track individual plays.

Here is my Week 1 article if you want to go back and take a look at how we started. I explain a bit more about my process there.

Now, let’s get to some Week 4 bets.

• Best +EV NFL Picks
• NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• Tail Sharp NFL Bettors at Better Prices
• Optimize Your PrizePicks Prop Plays

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Updated Picks

Since I post a high volume of picks, I’ll share a table version of the picks first. I’ll add to this throughout the week as I add more picks. Where relevant, I’ll add some notes below the table to provide additional context. But know that, for the most part, I am betting prices with a focus on +EV (expected value) compared to sharp sportsbooks and following sharp liquidity on prediction markets.

* Note: More info on this below in the PrizePicks and Underdog section, but the odds for the pickem platforms are dependent on playing the appropriate lineup sizes that offer you those odds. If you play other lineup sizes, you’ll get worse odds.

NFL Week 4 Game-by-Game Picks

Thursday Night Football (Steelers vs. Browns)

• Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Passing Yards 570 (Pick6)
• Denzel Boston Over 38.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Pick6)
• Quinshon Judkins Under 55.5 Rushing Yards Parlay (Pick6)
• Steelers vs. Browns Over 36.5 Total Points 443 (Onyx Odds)
• DK Metcalf Over 46.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Onyx Odds)
• Jerry Jeudy Over 14.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Onyx Odds)
• Steelers vs. Browns Under 7.5 1st Quarter Points -140 (theScore Bet)
• D.K. Metcalf Over 36.5 Receiving Yards 192 (Sleeper)
• Deshaun Watson Over 187.5 Passing Yards Parlay (Sleeper)
• Aaron Rodgers Over 21.5 Pass Completions 308 (Sleeper)
• Deshaun Watson Over 6.5 Rush Attempts Parlay (Sleeper)
• Raheim Sanders Over 5.5 Rushing Yards 725 (Betr)
• Roman Wilson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Betr)
• Jaylen Warren Under 3.5 Receptions Parlay (Betr)

NFL Week 4 Parlays

With the caveat that many of my parlay slips are multi-sport and I really only focus on value (+EV picks = +EV parlays) and being careful about correlation penalties, here are some of NFL-only slips I have for Week 3:

DraftKings Pick6 3-Pick Power

• Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Passing Yards 570 (Pick6)
• Denzel Boston Over 38.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Pick6)
• Quinshon Judkins Under 55.5 Rushing Yards Parlay (Pick6)

Onyx Odds (+385 boosted to +443)

• Steelers vs. Browns Over 36.5 Total Points 443 (Onyx Odds)
• DK Metcalf Over 46.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Onyx Odds)
• Jerry Jeudy Over 14.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Onyx Odds)

Sleeper (+192, D.K. Metcalf promo)

• D.K. Metcalf Over 36.5 Receiving Yards 192 (Sleeper)
• Deshaun Watson Over 187.5 Passing Yards Parlay (Sleeper)

Sleeper (+308 Aaron Rodgers promo)

• Aaron Rodgers Over 21.5 Pass Completions 308 (Sleeper)
• Deshaun Watson Over 6.5 Rush Attempts Parlay (Sleeper)

Betr 3-pick power (+725, 25% boost)

• Raheim Sanders Over 5.5 Rushing Yards 725 (Betr)
• Roman Wilson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards Parlay (Betr)
• Jaylen Warren Under 3.5 Receptions Parlay (Betr)

*** I’ll add parlays here throughout the week and weekend as I log them, but see Underdog, PrizePicks, and Betr plays above for a list of picks that make up various parlays (often cross-sport ones).

How I Find My NFL Best Bets

I'm a positive expected value bettor, and I bet volume. I'm looking for prices that I believe give me an edge, then making enough of those bets for that edge to have a chance to play out over time. There will be losses. Sometimes several in a row. I'm comfortable with that as long as the process and the prices make sense.

Each week, I'll share my NFL best bets here and keep adding picks through Thursday Night Football, into the weekend, and sometimes right up to Sunday kickoff. Expect straight bets and player props, plus parlays, PrizePicks and Underdog entries, and sportsbook discounts or boosts I think are worth playing.

I'll use the BettingPros Market-Based EV tool, Smart Money tool, PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers, Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Whale Tracker, odds pages, and likely some other BP tools along the way to help build the card. Each pick will include which tool helped me find it, so you can follow the process yourself.

The price matters. I can’t emphasize that enough. I’m betting the PRICE more than anything else. When you see a play from me and the current price is significantly worse, you should probably avoid it. In some cases, I’ll include how far I’m willing to go with a number. So, always check the current number before following a pick. A bet I liked on Monday might offer very different value by Sunday morning. I’ll list the line and the odds I played alongside each selection and keep adding to the card as I find more bets.

NFL PrizePicks, Underdog & DFS/Pickem Picks

When I build a PrizePicks or Underdog entry, I start with the individual picks and the price I'm effectively paying for each one. A big payout doesn't do much for me if I have to add a couple of bad picks to get there.

The slip format matters. With standard payouts, the best options on PrizePicks and Underdog are:

• Underdog: 2-pick Standard, which works out to approximately -115 per pick.
• PrizePicks: 5-pick Flex or 6-pick Flex, at approximately -119 and -118 per pick, respectively.

Those are effective odds calculated from the full payout structure, including partial payouts when some picks miss. They give me a baseline for comparing each selection with the sportsbook market.

Here’s a video Andrew Erickson recorded where he walks through the PrizePicks Optimizer and the strategy behind using it. The same applies for Underdog, just with different odds and slip sizes (see above). Watch the video here. And if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X (@mikeMaher).

I'll use the BettingPros PrizePicks and Underdog optimizers to find those edges and share my selections below. Focus on the individual lines when following along, and check your entry's payout before submitting. Discounts and adjusted multipliers can change the math. I'm happy to wait for another good pick instead of forcing one to fill a slip.

Again, we’re focusing on individual picks here. We want each individual pick to be a good one, so we’re less worried about every slip hitting and more focused on each individual pick providing value. Below, I’ll share each pick individually (I may have the same pick in multiple slips) and will share some of the completed slips I built throughout the week.

What is the Smart Money Tool?

Watch this walkthrough of the Smart Money board and how the tool works. If you'd rather watch than read, start with this Smart Money tutorial.

Smart Money is a new tool at BettingPros that focuses on sharp money on prediction markets called liquidity. While prediction markets are technically peer-to-peer, we know they’re filled with sharp bettors, whales, trading firms, market makers, and even other sportsbooks.

The liquidity is the primary signal here. That money (available liquidity) shows us what the sharps are trying to bet on prediction markets. Smart Money shows you where you can bet the same thing, at a better price, on a sportsbook.

Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and ProphetX are exchanges, so the money sitting on each side of a market is public.

The tool tracks liquidity across the major prediction markets in real time and lines those prices up against every sportsbook on the board. When a market is heavily backed on one side at a number the books haven’t matched, that gap is your edge. Smart Money flags the bet, finds the best available price across all major books and exchanges, and explains the edge in plain English. It’s line shopping with the sharpest money on the screen telling you which line to shop for.