March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Pittsburgh vs. Xavier
Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Blake Hinson |
15.3 |
6.3 |
1.3 |
21.6 |
16.6 |
22.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
| Jamarius Burton |
14.6 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
23.7 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| Nelly Cummings |
11.3 |
2.7 |
5.1 |
14.0 |
16.3 |
19.1 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
| Greg Elliott |
11.7 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
16.2 |
13.1 |
17.6 |
2.5 |
1.7 |
| Nike Sibande |
8.4 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
12.4 |
9.6 |
13.7 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
| Federiko Federiko |
4.9 |
4.2 |
0.4 |
9.1 |
5.3 |
9.5 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Guillermo Diaz Graham |
5.5 |
5.4 |
1.1 |
10.9 |
6.6 |
12.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| Jorge Diaz Graham |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
| John Hugley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nate Santos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Aidan Fisch |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| KJ Marshall |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Xavier Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Souley Boum |
17.7 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
22.9 |
22.4 |
27.7 |
2.6 |
4.2 |
| Colby Jones |
16.0 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
22.5 |
20.5 |
27.0 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
| Jack Nunge |
15.2 |
9.6 |
2.2 |
24.8 |
17.5 |
27.1 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
| Adam Kunkel |
11.4 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
14.8 |
14.6 |
18.0 |
2.1 |
1.1 |
| Zach Freemantle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jerome Hunter |
10.3 |
7.0 |
1.9 |
17.3 |
12.1 |
19.1 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
| Desmond Claude |
5.4 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
8.8 |
7.6 |
11.0 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
| Kyky Tandy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cesare Edwards |
2.3 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
4.4 |
2.5 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Kam Craft |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dieonte Miles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Tucker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bradley Colbert |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bob Nunge |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ian Sabourin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Wolf |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Pittsburgh vs. Xavier Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Pittsburgh
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Blake Hinson Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
MGM |
| Blake Hinson Over 19.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
UB |
| Jamarius Burton Over 13.5 Points |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
UB |
| Greg Elliott Over 3.5 Rebounds |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
UB |
| Greg Elliott Over 1.5 3Ps |
-150 |
1.5 |
1 |
MGM |
Xavier
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Colby Jones Over 3.5 Assists |
135 |
1 |
1.35 |
MGM |
| Souley Boum Over 3.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| Adam Kunkel Under 13.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
UB |
| Jerome Hunter Over 1.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
UB |
| Souley Boum Under 19.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
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