March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Princeton vs. Creighton
Princeton Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tosan Evbuomwan |
15.7 |
7.9 |
4.7 |
23.6 |
20.4 |
28.3 |
0.3 |
2.6 |
| Ryan Langborg |
12.0 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
15.6 |
13.5 |
17.1 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
| Matt Allocco |
11.2 |
5.9 |
2.1 |
17.1 |
13.3 |
19.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| Caden Pierce |
8.9 |
9.5 |
1.2 |
18.3 |
10.0 |
19.5 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
| Keeshawn Kellman |
7.3 |
5.0 |
0.5 |
12.3 |
7.8 |
12.8 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Blake Peters |
3.8 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
| Xaivian Lee |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| Deven Austin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Martini |
4.6 |
3.6 |
0.5 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
8.8 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
| Jack Scott |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacob O’Connell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Konrad Kiszka |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Philip Byriel |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Vernon Collins |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Leyi Adebayo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Creighton Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner |
16.5 |
6.9 |
1.1 |
23.4 |
17.6 |
24.5 |
0.2 |
2.8 |
| Trey Alexander |
14.8 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
19.7 |
17.2 |
22.1 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
| Baylor Scheierman |
13.4 |
9.3 |
2.9 |
22.8 |
16.4 |
25.7 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
| Ryan Nembhard |
13.1 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
17.6 |
17.5 |
22.0 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
| Arthur Kaluma |
11.0 |
5.9 |
1.3 |
16.9 |
12.3 |
18.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
| Fredrick King |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Francisco Farabello |
3.5 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
| Mason Miller |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Shereef Mitchell |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Ben Shtolzberg |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zander Yates |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sami Osmani |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Young |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Princeton vs. Creighton Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Princeton
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Caden Pierce Over 8.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Matt Allocco Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-170 |
1.7 |
1 |
DK |
| Tosan Evbuomwan Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
Creighton
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Baylor Scheierman Over 11.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
MGM |
| Trey Alexander Over 13.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
DK |
| Baylor Scheierman Over 7.5 Rebounds |
-145 |
1.45 |
1 |
DK |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Ryan Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
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