March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Providence vs. Kentucky
Providence Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Bryce Hopkins |
15.1 |
8.8 |
2.1 |
23.9 |
17.2 |
26.0 |
0.8 |
4.3 |
| Ed Croswell |
13.4 |
8.4 |
0.7 |
21.8 |
14.1 |
22.5 |
0.0 |
3.0 |
| Devin Carter |
11.7 |
4.8 |
2.1 |
16.5 |
13.8 |
18.6 |
0.9 |
3.2 |
| Noah Locke |
9.9 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
12.2 |
10.7 |
13.0 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
| Jared Bynum |
8.7 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
11.1 |
12.4 |
14.7 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
| Alyn Breed |
3.0 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
5.6 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| Clifton Moore |
2.9 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
5.3 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| Jayden Pierre |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Corey Floyd |
3.4 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
3.9 |
5.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
| Rafael Castro |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Luke Fonts |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kieran O’Haire |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kentucky Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Oscar Tshiebwe |
17.2 |
14.2 |
2.0 |
31.4 |
19.2 |
33.3 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
| Antonio Reeves |
17.4 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
19.9 |
19.0 |
21.6 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
| Jacob Toppin |
13.6 |
7.8 |
3.0 |
21.4 |
16.6 |
24.4 |
0.6 |
2.1 |
| Cason Wallace |
12.3 |
3.9 |
5.5 |
16.2 |
17.9 |
21.8 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
| Chris Livingston |
8.7 |
5.9 |
1.2 |
14.6 |
9.9 |
15.8 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
| CJ Fredrick |
4.1 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
| Sahvir Wheeler |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Lance Ware |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Daimion Collins |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Adou Thiero |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Ugonna Onyenso |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brennan Canada |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Walker Horn |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kareem Watkins |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Providence vs. Kentucky Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Providence
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Bryce Hopkins Over 6.5 Rebounds |
118 |
1 |
1.18 |
UB |
| Bryce Hopkins Over 21.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
UB |
| Noah Locke Under 12.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Jared Bynum Under 10.5 Points |
-132 |
1.32 |
1 |
FD |
| Ed Croswell Over 12.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
Kentucky
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jacob Toppin Under 0.5 3Ps |
165 |
1 |
1.65 |
MGM |
| Antonio Reeves Over 14.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
FD |
| Chris Livingston Over 6.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Oscar Tshiebwe Over 11.5 Rebounds |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
