March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: San Diego State vs. Alabama
San Diego State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Matt Bradley |
11.4 |
4.3 |
1.5 |
15.7 |
12.9 |
17.2 |
1.1 |
2.4 |
| Darrion Trammell |
8.3 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
12.9 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
| Lamont Butler |
8.5 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
11.8 |
11.1 |
14.4 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
| Micah Parrish |
7.6 |
4.3 |
0.5 |
11.8 |
8.0 |
12.3 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
| Jaedon Ledee |
7.4 |
6.3 |
0.8 |
13.6 |
8.1 |
14.4 |
0.0 |
2.8 |
| Keshad Johnson |
7.0 |
5.7 |
0.4 |
12.7 |
7.4 |
13.1 |
0.2 |
1.6 |
| Nathan Mensah |
5.3 |
6.5 |
0.4 |
11.8 |
5.7 |
12.3 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
| Adam Seiko |
5.0 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
6.4 |
5.4 |
6.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
| Aguek Arop |
4.7 |
3.7 |
0.7 |
8.3 |
5.3 |
9.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Miles Byrd |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Saunders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demarshay Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Alger |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jared Barnett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Triston Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Alabama Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Brandon Miller |
17.0 |
8.1 |
1.7 |
25.0 |
18.6 |
26.7 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
| Mark Sears |
10.7 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
13.9 |
12.7 |
15.9 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
| Noah Clowney |
10.1 |
8.9 |
0.8 |
19.0 |
10.8 |
19.7 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
| Jahvon Quinerly |
11.3 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
14.1 |
15.7 |
18.4 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
| Jaden Bradley |
3.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
| Charles Bediako |
7.3 |
7.7 |
0.7 |
15.0 |
8.0 |
15.7 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Rylan Griffen |
3.7 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
5.4 |
4.1 |
5.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
| Noah Gurley |
3.4 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
5.7 |
3.8 |
6.1 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
| Nimari Burnett |
4.1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
6.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
| Nick Pringle |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
3.8 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| Dominick Welch |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Delaney Heard |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Darius Miles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Adam Cottrell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jaden Quinerly |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Max Scharnowski |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego State vs. Alabama Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
San Diego State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Darrion Trammell Under 1.5 3Ps |
-157 |
1.57 |
1 |
UB |
| Darrion Trammel Under 14.5 PRAs |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Matt Bradley Under 13.5 Points |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Lamont Butler Under 3.5 Assists |
-152 |
1.52 |
1 |
FD |
| Nathan Mensah Over 10.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
Alabama
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jahvon Quinerly Over 3.5 Assists |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Jahvon Quinerly Under 12.5 Points |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
DK |
| Mark Sears Under 2.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Noah Clowney Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
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