San Diego State vs. UConn: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
2023: 301-235, +50.67 units (Through Final Four)

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2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: San Diego State vs. UConn

San Diego State Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Matt Bradley	10.8	3.6	1.4	14.4	12.2	15.8	0.9	2.5
Darrion Trammell	9.2	2.4	2.2	11.6	11.5	13.9	0.9	2.6
Lamont Butler	8.0	2.7	2.3	10.7	10.4	13.0	0.7	1.5
Jaedon Ledee	6.4	4.8	0.6	11.2	7.0	11.8	0.0	2.6
Micah Parrish	6.5	3.4	0.4	9.9	7.0	10.3	0.8	1.7
Keshad Johnson	6.9	5.0	0.4	11.9	7.4	12.3	0.2	1.7
Nathan Mensah	5.2	5.5	0.4	10.7	5.6	11.1	0.0	1.7
Adam Seiko	5.0	1.2	0.5	6.2	5.4	6.7	0.9	0.8
Aguek Arop	4.4	3.0	0.6	7.5	5.1	8.2	0.0	0.7
Miles Byrd	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Elijah Saunders	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Demarshay Johnson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cade Alger	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jared Barnett	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Triston Broughton	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tyler Broughton	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

UConn Player Prop Bet Projections

Player	PTs	REBs	ASTs	PTs + REBs	PTs + ASTs	PRAs	3Ps	FTs
Adama Sanogo	15.2	7.8	1.0	22.9	16.2	23.9	0.4	2.2
Jordan Hawkins	13.9	3.7	1.1	17.7	15.0	18.7	2.3	2.9
Tristen Newton	9.4	4.7	4.1	14.1	13.4	18.1	1.0	3.2
Alex Karaban	8.6	4.7	1.4	13.2	10.1	14.6	1.4	0.9
Donovan Clingan	5.6	5.2	0.3	10.8	5.9	11.1	0.0	1.0
Andre Jackson	6.3	6.8	4.0	13.1	10.3	17.1	0.6	0.8
Joey Calcaterra	5.6	1.9	1.1	7.5	6.7	8.6	1.2	0.6
Nahiem Alleyne	4.7	1.2	0.7	5.9	5.4	6.6	0.7	0.6
Hassan Diarra	0.7	0.5	0.6	1.3	1.3	1.8	0.1	0.2
Richie Springs	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Samson Johnson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Apostolos Roumoglou	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Andrew Hurley	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Yarin Hasson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Emmett Hendry	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Andre Johnson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

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San Diego State vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks

All betting odds are from:

San Diego State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Matt Bradley Under 18.5 PRAs	-115	1.15	1	UB
Matt Bradley Under 12.5 Points	-105	1.05	1	PB
Micah Parrish Under 3.5 Rebounds	122	1	1.22	FD
Nathan Mensah Under 5.5 Rebounds	116	1	1.16	FD

UConn

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Adama Sanogo Under 8.5 Rebounds	-135	1.35	1	FD
Andre Jackson Under 5.5 Assists	-140	1.4	1	FD
Tristen Newton Under 4.5 Assists	110	1	1.1	DK
Alex Karaban Over 7.5 Points	-105	1.05	1	UB
Jordan Hawkins Under 15.5 Points	-107	1.07	1	UB
Nahiem Alleyne Under 7.5 PRAs	110	1	1.1	UB

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