The SEC Tournament kicks off today in Nashville, Tennessee as one of the most anticipated tournaments among the power conferences. As the tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament with the conference ranking as one of the best in the KenPom era. Even the 16-seeded South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC. However, the focus is on the top. Auburn is currently the consensus favorite to win the SEC tournament at +150, followed close behind by Florida (+250), Alabama (+425) and Tennessee (+600). Not only are these top SEC teams but all four rank in the top-six nationally. There's a decent chance your national champion is in that group there. Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the Wooden Award and Auburn is fighting for Duke for title favorites but there is no question: the SEC is the best conference this year. Not surprisingly, all those teams have a bye today.
In this article, we're focusing on previewing the games of the day so let's get to it.
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Wednesday’s Best SEC Tournament College Basketball Picks
(All bets are one unit)
South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Arkansas -3.0 | Total: 139.5
This hasn't been the best season for either squad playing in this game with South Carolina getting absolutely trounced to the tune of a 2-16 conference record. Collin Murray-Boyles is a silver lining and they did compete with a lot of good teams but fell short too many times for today's game to mean much. Arkansas, on the other hand, is fighting for its tournament lives.
After ranking 16th in the AP preseason poll with John Calipari coming over and the plethora of talent on this team. The season started fine but an 0-5 start to conference play set them back a bit. Since then, they've stepped up some, going 8-5 with a 33rd ranking (compared to 40th on the season) and the 14th-best defense in DI hoops. They've needed that with the offense ranking outside the top-70.
That is in large part due to the injuries to this team. Adou Thiero is presumably out along with Boogie Fland. As the two leading scorers for the team, that's a big blow and showed up as they couldn't generate any offense against South Carolina when they faced off earlier this month, scoring just 53 points.
Which brings us to the matchup. South Carolina doesn't exactly make a ton of shots but they do generate offense through getting to the charity stripe with a top-10 free throw rate in the nation. Nearly a quarter of their points come from free throws which is eighth highest in the nation. Their defense is respectable at a top-50 clip while limiting second-chance looks and slowing down opponents. For me, this game screams Under. It's on a neutral court and early in the day on a Wednesday. It's a must-win for Arkansas but I don't trust them to play clean, error-free ball. Additionally, both teams come with a defense-first mentality, knowing what to expect from the other offense. We've seen some low totals across the different conference tournaments, but this one isn't low enough.
Prediction: Arkansas 68, South Carolina 64
Best Bet: Under 139.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Texas vs. Vanderbilt
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Vanderbilt -2.0 | Total: 148.5
The two bubble teams going against one another in the SEC I'm most excited for this fine Wednesday afternoon are Texas and Vanderbilt. Vandy can, in theory, lose this game and still make the tournament but Texas is on the outside looking in. When these two teams met in February, Vandy came back from a 10-point deficit, scoring 30 points in the final 10 minutes to take down the Longhorns.
The first thing to note in this game is how Vandy is playing in their own backyard. There probably won't be an elevated court here but there is at least a little bit of an advantage sleeping in your own bed the night before. The second note is that Texas is not only playing for their tournament life but Rodney Terry is coaching for his career. If I'm in that situation, how can you not go to the best player on the court? Tre Johnson is a lottery pick in the making with some sharp shooting and play-making potential. One of Vandy's biggest weaknesses is perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot over 37 percent from deep, which ranks 343rd in the country. They also will allow a lot of free points with a high free throw rate allowed.
This game might come down to turnovers. Texas is good at ball control and while Vanderbilt can force them, if the first game is an indication, the Longhorns should win that battle. Considering the Commodores are number one in the nation at scoring quick points off turnovers. If Texas takes care of the ball, leans on their best player, and makes their perimeter looks like they should, this should be a win for Texas. I expect all those things to happen, so let's go with it.
Prediction: Texas 77, Vanderbilt 75
Best Bet: Texas Moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Mississippi State -8.5 | Total: 147.5
To start off the nightcap of SEC day one play, we have LSU doing whatever they can to keep their tournament hopes alive against Mississippi State. It hasn't been a great recent month for the Tigers, going 0-5 in their final five games without a single-digit defeat in there. In that timeline, LSU ranks 114th overall, behind Robert Morris, with the 165th-ranked offense and 94th defense. This might get ugly.
A Mississippi State win here would keep them comfortably in the field and while they aren't exactly on the bubble, I'm sure a win moves them to pure lock territory if they aren't there already. What stands out in this matchup will be on the glass. The Bulldogs are a top-50 team at snagging offensive boards but they are top-10 at converting the second-chance looks. LSU ranks outside the top 330 in both those metrics so I'd expect the 6-10 KeShawn Murphy to eat down low. Rebounding is such an effort play too and the Bulldogs have so much more to play for that I have to imagine they will want a dominant win to show just how much they belong in the tournament.
LSU doesn't really feel like they have a clear path to keep this one close, either. The best way to attack Mississippi State is from the Bulldogs' weak perimeter defense but LSU only shoots 31 percent from deep, 323rd in DI hoops. Mississippi State's near-proximity defense ranks 38th in DI and they'll force their fair share of turnovers against LSU's sloppy play.
This feels like a big line, but when you pull back the curtain a bit, it's clear just how much of an advantage Mississippi State has here, analytically speaking and narratively. Don't think too much about this one.
Prediction: Mississippi State 78, LSU 67
Best Bet: Mississippi State -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Georgia -2.5 | Total: 147.5
For my money, this is by far the most interesting first-round SEC matchup we have. Both teams are square on the bubble right now with Oklahoma perhaps the last team in. Georgia is a bit more safely acclimated but a loss here puts them in dangerous territory. Get your popcorn ready because there's a lot on the line here.
Oklahoma started the season as hot as ever, going 13-0 with wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan. Then conference play started. It's a little surprising to see Oklahoma as a 14-seed because they are talented. They have the 16th-best perimeter defense, get to the charity stripe at a top-30 rate in the country, and force their share of turnovers. However, the Sooners just couldn't handle SEC play, going 6-12 in conference.
One of those losses was to Georgia, a team that manufactures their own shots with an offensive rebound rate and free throw rate that ranks in the top 25 in the nation. Their pure shooting won't surprise any teams but their third-ranked second-chance conversion percentage gives them a high floor. The Bulldogs are playing their best basketball right now, riding a four-game winning streak that started with a huge upset over Florida followed by three straight wins by nine or more.
Against Oklahoma, I think Georgia’s ability to get to the charity stripe and convert second-chance looks is going to be too much. The Bulldogs made 27 free throws when they faced Oklahoma back in January, missing 10, and only shot 17 percent from the perimeter. In that game, they still won by 10. I'm not sure if they will do that tonight, but I am confident in a cover.
Prediction: Georgia 76, Oklahoma 71
Best Bet: Georgia -2.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
