March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: St. Mary’s vs. UConn
St. Mary’s Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Logan Johnson |
14.1 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
19.4 |
16.8 |
22.0 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
| Aidan Mahaney |
12.6 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
14.8 |
13.9 |
16.2 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
| Alex Ducas |
13.3 |
5.1 |
0.8 |
18.5 |
14.1 |
19.2 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
| Mitchell Saxen |
10.3 |
7.8 |
1.1 |
18.1 |
11.4 |
19.2 |
0.0 |
2.7 |
| Augustas Marciulionis |
4.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
| Kyle Bowen |
5.0 |
7.7 |
1.2 |
12.7 |
6.2 |
13.9 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
| Harry Wessels |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Joshua Jefferson |
2.3 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
4.4 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| Luke Barrett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chris Howell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UConn Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Adama Sanogo |
14.7 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
21.6 |
15.5 |
22.3 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
| Jordan Hawkins |
13.9 |
3.7 |
0.8 |
17.6 |
14.7 |
18.4 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
| Tristen Newton |
8.8 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
12.9 |
11.6 |
15.7 |
0.8 |
3.3 |
| Alex Karaban |
8.0 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
12.0 |
9.0 |
13.0 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
| Donovan Clingan |
4.6 |
4.0 |
0.2 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
8.7 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Andre Jackson |
6.2 |
6.5 |
2.7 |
12.7 |
8.9 |
15.4 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
| Joey Calcaterra |
5.0 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
7.4 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
| Nahiem Alleyne |
3.4 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
| Hassan Diarra |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Richie Springs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Samson Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Apostolos Roumoglou |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andrew Hurley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Yarin Hasson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Emmett Hendry |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andre Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
St. Mary’s vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
St. Mary’s
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Alex Ducas Under 1.5 Assists |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Mitchell Saxen Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
MGM |
| Mitchell Saxen Over 15.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Aidan Mahaney Over 10.5 Points |
-103 |
1.03 |
1 |
UB |
| Logan Johnson Over 4.5 Rebounds |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
FD |
UConn
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Andre Jackson Over 2.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
UB |
| Adama Sanogo Under 7.5 Rebounds |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
MGM |
| Tristen Newton Under 18.5 PRAs |
-124 |
1.24 |
1 |
UB |
| Jordan Hawkins Over 12.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
UB |
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