March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: TCU vs. Gonzaga
TCU Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Mike Miles |
18.0 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
21.2 |
20.6 |
23.7 |
1.5 |
3.8 |
| Emanuel Miller |
12.9 |
7.5 |
1.7 |
20.4 |
14.6 |
22.1 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
| Damion Baugh |
12.5 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
17.5 |
17.9 |
22.9 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
| JaKobe Coles |
10.2 |
5.0 |
1.3 |
15.2 |
11.5 |
16.5 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
| Chuck O’Bannon |
9.3 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
13.8 |
10.4 |
14.9 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
| Shahada Wells |
2.6 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
| Micah Peavy |
5.5 |
2.6 |
0.9 |
8.1 |
6.4 |
9.0 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
| Eddie Lampkin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Xavier Cork |
3.9 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
6.4 |
4.3 |
6.7 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Rondel Walker |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| PJ Haggerty |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Souleymane Doumbia |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Cole Despie |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Lundblade |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Darius Ford |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Gonsoulin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Trey Stuart |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Drew Timme |
20.2 |
8.3 |
3.4 |
28.5 |
23.6 |
31.9 |
0.1 |
4.2 |
| Julian Strawther |
15.4 |
7.0 |
1.5 |
22.4 |
16.8 |
23.9 |
2.0 |
2.7 |
| Anton Watson |
12.4 |
7.4 |
2.9 |
19.8 |
15.2 |
22.6 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
| Rasir Bolton |
8.6 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
10.5 |
11.0 |
12.9 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
| Malachi Smith |
6.9 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
10.2 |
8.2 |
11.5 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| Nolan Hickman |
7.4 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
10.0 |
10.5 |
13.2 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
| Ben Gregg |
5.4 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
9.0 |
6.3 |
9.8 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
| Hunter Sallis |
4.2 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
| Efton Reid |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colby Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dominick Harris |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Abe Eagle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
TCU vs. Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
TCU
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Emanuel Miller Over 10.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
| Mike Miles Over 20.5 PRAs |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
UB |
| JaKobe Coles Over 8.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
Gonzaga
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Julian Strawther Over 5.5 Rebounds |
114 |
1 |
1.14 |
FD |
| Nolan Hickman Over 2.5 Assists |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
UB |
| Drew Timme Over 2.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| Drew Timme Over 7.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
FD |
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