Here’s a look at the spreads and totals for College Football Week 14, a week filled with Conference Championship matchups, along with my custom projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here’s a look at the spreads and totals for College Football Week 14, a week filled with Conference Championship matchups, along with my custom projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.
My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | Final Spread | Vegas Total | Final Total | Day |
| New Mexico St. | Liberty | -11.5 | -10.6 | 56.5 | 55.2 | Friday |
| Oregon | Washington | 9.5 | 9.8 | 65.5 | 70.2 | Friday |
| Miami (OH) | Toledo | -8.0 | -7.1 | 44 | 43.9 | Saturday |
| Oklahoma St. | Texas | -15.0 | -16.9 | 55 | 57.2 | Saturday |
| Boise St. | UNLV | 2.5 | 3.5 | 59 | 67 | Saturday |
| Appalachian St. | Troy | -6.0 | -4.1 | 52.5 | 53.5 | Saturday |
| Georgia | Alabama | 5.5 | 5.1 | 54.5 | 63.6 | Saturday |
| SMU | Tulane | -3.5 | -3.7 | 47 | 45.5 | Saturday |
| Louisville | Florida St. | -2.5 | -0.8 | 47.5 | 49.4 | Saturday |
| Michigan | Iowa | 21.5 | 24.1 | 34.5 | 34 | Saturday |
| Army | Navy | 2.0 | 3.7 | 28 | 29.6 | Saturday |
CUSA championship | Lynchburg, Virginia (Friday)
ATL: Liberty -11.6 | ATT: 55.2
This is a home game for Liberty, and a rematch of the Sept. 9 game played in the same venue. That day, the Flames won 33-17, dropping New Mexico State to 1-2.
Two weeks later, on Sept. 23, the Aggies were upset by Hawaii to fall to 2-3. The Fightin' Jerry Kills have not lost since, ripping off seven-straight wins. On Friday, NMSU will attempt to play spoiler to 12-0 Liberty's New Year's Six hopes.
New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia has gotten a lot of credit for his team's resurgence. But its the defense and special teams that has brought HC Jerry Kill's squad to this point. The Aggies rank No. 39 SP+ in defense, and No. 55 in special teams.
NMSU puts opposing offenses in bad situations as often as it is able. And then it forces that offense to beat it with paper cuts. The Aggies categorically refuse to give up explosive plays. You can nick NMSU all day, but the Aggies are vicious in high-leverage situations, constricting both on third downs and on their side of the field.
What's interesting about this matchup, then, is that Liberty's offense is an efficiency machine. The Flames do not need explosive plays to generate points. Liberty is also tremendous at converting points from its scoring opportunities. Can these strengths trump those of NMSU's, as they did in September?
New Mexico State's offense is an extremely run-heavy scheme that wants to stay on schedule. There is absolutely a path to offensive success for the Aggies in this game: Liberty's biggest defensive weakness, running success against (No. 85), is the thing New Mexico State will mercilessly pick on.
We lean Liberty on the side, but we're too close to the margins to make a referendum on that, especially with how well NMSU has been playing. We also leaned towards the over, but don't see value at the current number.
Prop angles to consider: Liberty rushing overs, Liberty passing unders, New Mexico State rushing overs, and New Mexico State passing unders.
The pick: No play
Pac-12 championship | Las Vegas (Friday)
ATL: Oregon -9.8 | ATT: 70.2
Both teams enter more-or-less at full strength. Washington got back WR Jalen McMillan for his first serious action since mid-September last week against Wazzu
This is a rematch of the Oct. 14 game played in Seattle that Washington won 36-33. In that game, the Huskies stopped the Ducks' 4th-and-3 attempt - one of three failed Ducks fourth-down conversions in the game - at Washington's 47 with 2:11 remaining.
QB Michael Penix needed only 33 seconds to go 53 yards in two plays for the go-ahead TD. Oregon missed an ensuing FG attempt at the gun that would have forced OT. The Ducks outgained the Huskies 541-415 in the loss.
Oregon's offense is an efficiency machine: No. 1 success rate, No. 9 3-and-out percentage. Washington's defense ranks No. 76 and No. 102, respectively, in those two categories. Oregon will have no problems moving the ball again.
This profiles as another big game for Oregon RB Bucky Irving. In October against UW, Irving had 161 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Washington has one of the nation's worst run defenses.
Washington has no pass-rush. But that actually doesn't really matter in this game, because Oregon QB Bo Nix has one of the fastest release-time averages in the FBS and Oregon's offense is No. 1 in the nation in both sacks per dropback and pressure rate allowed. Even good pass-rushes don't get the opportunity to disrupt Nix and Oregon's quick-hit passing game.
On the other side, Oregon's defense has been strong overall (No. 14 SP+), but it's been susceptible to allowing big plays (No. 52 isoPPP). Washington's ability to use its running game to stay on schedule (No. 7 success rate) and passing game for explosion (No. 17 isoPPP) opens up multiple routes to points.
My system believes this spread is fair, so we're going to stay away from that barring this opportunity to get 10 and a hook with Washington. As for the total, my system is pegging it right about where the first game ended. That would put this game over the total. This would also be our lean, but we're not confident enough to have purchased a ticket as of publication.
The pick: No play
The RedHawks have skewed even more conservative since the season-ending injury to QB Brett Gabbert. Miami runs the slowest-paced offense in the entire nation.
Without Gabbert, Miami's offense is not potent. It skews extremely run-heavy, with more QB scrambles, and then bleeds the game clock down between plays. In its three games in November, all with QB Aveon Smith behind center, the highest-scoring RedHawks game featured a total of 33 points (23-10 win over Buffalo).
The good news, for Miami, is that Toledo's pass defense is elite, while Toledo's run defense is a more modest above-average-for-the-FBS. Miami's only path to scoring points is testing that solid-but-not-elite Toledo run defense over and over.
Toledo's offense is also extremely run-heavy. The Rockets run into one of the G5's best run defenses, here. Miami ranks No. 38 in success rate and No. 7 in explosion against the run. I expect Miami to hold RB Peny Boone beneath 100 yards. I am on Boone's unders in the prop market.
The spread - Toledo -7.5 - is exactly where it should be. I lean the under in a slow-tempo, run-heavy game where both offenses are going to have trouble scoring. But the market effectively pushed this total exactly where it should be, in lieu of context. So we're going to sit this game out.
The pick: No play
Big 12 championship | Arlington
ATL: Texas -16.9 | ATT: 57.2
Texas -12.5 was my first bet of the week on Sunday. I implored our viewers on Sunday's live early-line lookahead show with Chris Welsh and Eric Froton to hit the Longhorns immediately because "that line is going to be Texas -14.5 or -15" very quickly.
That's exactly what ended up happening. But I'd still advocate for a play on Texas at the current number - and all the way to -16.5.
Oklahoma State is a one-trick pony - a team with an awesome rushing attack that is mediocre or worse everywhere else. RB Ollie Gordon has been sensational, with 1,580 rushing yards and 20 TD.
But in this game, Gordon confronts the nation's best defensive front, and arguably its best overall run defense. The explosive runs that Gordon has used to bloat his rushing total will not be available against Texas.
And if OSU's running game goes away, putting pressure on QB Alan Bowman to win the game, disaster is coming. Bowman has posted a 10/11 TD/INT rate this season on under 60% completions with zero running utility.
The Pokes played only the No. 55 SP+ strength of schedule, making it a bit of a paper tiger. OSU finished its marquee win - over Oklahoma - with a 38% postgame win expectancy. OSU only has 7.5 second-order wins, suggesting it was more like a 7-5 or 8-4 quality team against a middle-of-the-FBS-pack schedule.
Texas won't have the same problems moving the ball that OSU will. Oklahoma State's No. 66 SP+ defense ranks No. 132 in marginal explosiveness against - meaning it is one of the easiest defenses in the nation to generate home-run plays against. Texas' offense is top-20 in the same category.
RB CJ Baxter should be in line for a huge game against an OSU run defense that ranks No. 110 in explosiveness against (Texas' run offense ranks No. 16 in explosiveness). Meanwhile, QB Quinn Ewers is going to feast against a Pokes pass defense that is second-to-last in allowing explosive plays and doesn't generate pressure whatsoever.
Texas HC Steve Sarkisian said Baxter was yanked early from last week's game against Texas Tech for precautionary reasons due to the big lead. Baxter is fine for this week. Same with WR Xavier Worthy, who got an early hook for similar reasons against the Red Raiders.
Sarkisian also said that DBs Ryan Watts and Austin Jordan are questionable. Texas should be able to hold down OSU's mistake-prone passing attack regardless of their status.
This game kicks early. Texas won't have had the opportunity to see the results of Alabama or FSU's games before it starts. The Longhorns need to win convincingly to make an argument to the committee they deserve a CFP spot if FSU ultimately loses theirs.
We're all over the Longhorns this weekend.
The pick: Texas -12.5 (play to -16.5)
SEC championship | Atlanta
ATL: UGA -5.1 | ATT: 63.6
Georgia used last week's win over Georgia Tech to rest several players who were not 100%, including TE Brock Bowers (ankle), WRs Ladd McConkey (ankle) and Rara Thomas (foot sprain), and RG Tate Ratledge (knee).
Bowers was given the day off to ensure his health for this weekend's game. UGA HC Kirby Smart says McConkey, Thomas, and Ratledge are "day-to-day."
On the Alabama side, RB1 Jase McClellan is questionable with a left foot injury. McClellan's absence would hurt, as the way to attack Georgia's defense is on the ground. The Bulldogs rank No. 81 in rushing success rate.
McClellan didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday. If he misses Saturday's game, Saban would turn to a three-man rotation of Roydell Williams, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes in the backfield.
Speaking of Alabama's run game, it'll be interesting to see how Georgia deals with QB Jalen Milroe's scrambling machinations. Will the Bulldogs delineate a spy to him throughout the game?
Milroe's scrambling so traumatized Auburn HC Hugh Freeze that Freeze devoted a spy to him on the fateful 30-yard 4th-and-goal "Gravedigger" play.
Things are going to be more difficult for Milroe through the air. The Bulldogs rank No. 5 in passing success rate against, and No. 33 in passing explosion against.
This sets up as a solid matchup for Georgia QB Carson Beck, assuming he has his full complement of receivers. While Alabama is No. 4 in passing success rate against, but No. 67 in explosion - they're susceptible down the field, an area that Beck loves to attack.
Beck should have plenty of time to survey his options. Alabama is No. 35 in sacks per dropback and No. 88 in pressure rate. Georgia's offense is No. 2 and No. 47, respectively, in the same two categories.
Georgia has scored 30-or-more points in seven straight games. Alabama, which has a knack for generating explosive plays, was among the top-20 nationally in percentage of games that went over.
We lean Georgia on the side. But with an objectively-fair spread, we're going to defer to the total, where we see real value on the over.
The pick: Over 54.5
MWC championship | Las Vegas
ATL: BSU -2.7 | ATT: 67
This is a home game for UNLV, and one of the biggest in program history.
Due to forfeiting the 1983 and 1984 seasons for playing ineligible players, the Rebels have actually only one won conference championship in school history (1994).
UNLV had a preseason win total of 5.5 but greatly exceeded expectations, going 9-3 in HC Barry Odom's first season. Odom originally tried to hire Bobby Petrino as his OC. Petrino accepted the offer but changed his mind when Texas A&M offered him the same position shortly thereafter.
This moment of adversity turned into a blessing-in-disguise that led Odom to a stroke-of-genius idea: The hiring of Texas WR coach Brennan Marion as OC. Marion's FCS offenses - running the "Go-Go" offense he invented - lit up scoreboards.
The Rebels' offense was wildly entertaining this year, ranking top-25 in rushing YPG and top-20 in adjusted pace (the "Go-Go" refers to the dizzying pace the team snaps the ball).
Marion's offense is going to put extreme stress on a Boise State that badly struggles tackling - the Broncos rank No. 132 in tackling rate. BSU is No. 30 in havoc rate, but UNLV's offense erases that due to Marion's scheme (No. 21 havoc allowed).
UNLV's offense will also have a decided advantage when it goes to the air. UNLV ranks No. 15 in passing success rate and No. 64 in explosion. BSU's pass defense ranks No. 68 and No. 118, respectively, in the same categories.
Whereas UNLV is having its dream season out of nowhere, Boise State is the longtime Mountain West bully that started 4-5 and was left for dead nearly a month ago. Including by its own administration, which fired HC Andy Avalos in mid-November.
That was following the game where QB Maddux Madsen was lost for the season to injury. This should have been the final nail in BSU's coffin. Instead, with QB Taylen Green in his old post, RB Ashton Jeanty back from injury, and interim HC Spencer Danielson in for the reviled Avalos, the Broncos won its last three games to rally into this game via computer tiebreaker over San Jose State.
Even post-Avalos, BSU still hasn't completely taken the leash affixed to Green's rushing utility by OC Bush Hamdan off. Perhaps that's because Hamdan's firing has been saved for a special postseason tribunal. More crucial to this particular game is whether Green can hit one-on-one deep shots that UNLV's defense serves up on a platter in order to push up more help against the run.
UNLV ranks No. 40 in run success rate against on defense. But explosive plays have been a bugaboo not only on the ground (No. 80), but through the air (No. 124) against the Rebels this year. BSU does not have a particularly explosive rushing attack - but it's one of the most efficient ground games in the nation.
Where BSU has been able to generate explosive plays is through the air (No. 7 passing explosion). Green won't get many opportunities to play-action rip-it downfield - he needs to have the ball out and on the money on ideally half of those opportunities. If he can, chunk yardage can be stolen from UNLV.
If Green is errant in that small sample, Boise State's only opportunity for yards will be on the ground and it will find itself on the wrong end of a ground war.
This is a tough matchup to handicap on the side. But we're pretty sure a shootout is coming. So we're on the over.
The pick: Over 58.5
Sun Belt championship | Troy, Alabama
ATL: Troy -4.1 | ATT: 53.5
Troy hosts this game.
I leaned towards the Trojans, but have decided to stay off this game. After adjustments, my system actually favors Appalachian State. I just can't get there. And my system's total is right in line with the market in this game.
Instead, for me, this is a prop game.
The best angle? Troy RB Kamani Vidal's over.
Troy has an above-average run rate on standard downs. And it funnels all of its usage towards Vidal.
Vidal has already carried the ball 254 times this season (for 1,349 yards). He has had under 15 carries in only one game. He's had 23-or-more in seven.
Run defense is by far Appy State's biggest weakness, as a team. The Mountaineers' run defense ranks No. 95 in success rate and No. 107 in explosion.
On the other side, we lean towards taking the unders of Appy State's running backs. RB Nate Noel was withheld last week for undisclosed reasons. Noel is a junior who walked on Senior Day - if he's not 100 percent, it's possible we've seen the last of him in a college uniform.
Either way, the team has made it unclear whether he'll play this week. So, the sportsbooks have taken a bullish stance on RB Kanye Roberts. I'd fade Roberts at his price.
The pick: No play
AAC championship | New Orleans
ATL: Tulane -3.7 | ATT: 45.5
This would have been an entirely different handicap if SMU QB Preston Stone was healthy. But Stone broke his fibula at the end of the first half in the regular-season finale against Navy. He is done for the season.
In Stone's place, SMU turns to QB2 Kevin Jennings. Jennings has thrown only 46 career passes. And though his stats in that sample - 9.3 YPA and a 4/0 TD/INT - are strong, they come with an enormous asterisk.
Almost all of Jennings' action has come in mopup duty against horrible teams (16 of his career attempts have come against Tulsa, nine more came at the end of the Temple and Prairie View A&M games that SMU won by a combined score of 124-0, etc.).
Jennings was a lightly-recruited 6-foot, 190-pound three-star. His only other scholarship out of high school from a team currently in the FBS came from Sam Houston. Jennings' backup for the rest of the season is Iowa transfer Alex Padilla.
Padilla is actually more experienced, but he showed very little in it, with a 50.0% completion percentage and 3/4 TD/INT rate on 5.4 YPA over 164 attempts, most coming with the Hawkeyes in previous seasons. Iowa did not fight to keep him when Padilla transferred.
SMU's No. 18 SP+ offense takes an enormous shot in translation, going from Stone to Jennings. And the heartbreaking thing about that, for this game, from the SMU perspective, is that the way you attack Tulane's defense is through the air (No. 74 success rate).
Tulane ranks No. 8 in pressure rate. If you can deal with the pressure, you'll have opportunities to make plays. Wouldn't bet on Jennings' viability to do so sight unseen against a good defense in his first career start.
With Jennings in, SMU presumably leans heavily on the run game in this one. SMU HC Rhett Lashlee said he expects RB Jaylan Knighton, who missed last week with an injury, to return this week. To be fair, Lashlee said the same thing in advance of the Navy game. Perhaps the blowout changed his mind. RB LJ Johnson missed the same game for unspecified reasons - Lashlee similarly said this week that he expects Johnson back against Tulane.
Unfortunately, this change-of-tact would send the bulk of SMU's gameplan directly into the woodchipper of Tulane's premier defensive strength, the Green Wave's top-15 national run defense by the advanced numbers. Put simply: Barring a star-turn from Jennings, SMU's offense could be in for a rare long day at the office.
Tulane, 11-1, locked up home-field advantage by beating UTSA 29-16 on Friday. That was the Green Wave's 10th-straight win, and it put a bow on a perfect 8-0 record in conference games.
Tulane's only loss of the season came in Week 2 against 10-2 Mississippi when star QB Michael Pratt was forced to sit with a leg injury.
Over the past few weeks, Tulane's aerial offense has played down as Pratt has had to make due without injured WRs Lawrence Keys and Jha’Quan Jackson. The Green Wave's rushing attack and overall defense have both been better than expected in 2023, helping Tulane to overcome various injuries throughout the fall to reach this game.
Tulane WR Chris Brazzell, who has assumed a heavier target share with Keys and Jackson out, posted a 5-93-2 line last time out. He will again in this one, whether or not Jackson, who is questionable, can give it a go. Keys has already been ruled out.
SMU's defense has racked up a lot of pressure against poor opponents this year (No. 12 pressure rate). Interestingly, though, SMU only ranks No. 117 in sack rate. Tulane's offensive splits are the opposite: No. 75 pressure rate allowed, No. 17 sack rate allowed. Pratt doesn't mind pressure, and he has a knack for navigating around it. He should be able to effectively buy time when needed.
Pratt has accepted a Senior Bowl invite. There's a chance that this is his last collegiate game. Between that, Tulane's recent experience in this spot, and the devastating injury to Stone, we're all over the Green Wave in this spot.
We would also lean towards the under but haven't bet the total as of publication.
For prop angles, target Brazzell's over. Sportsbooks do a poor job of baking ancillary context into all prop numbers. That weakness is particularly acute in college, a sport more difficult to canvas. The cluster injuries in Tulane's receiver room have made Brazell a target-hound.
The pick: Tulane -3.5 (play to -4.5)
ACC Championship | Charlotte, NC
ATL: Louisville -2.8 | ATT: 50.4
Another game where a key quarterback injury informs our handicap.
Playing without injured star QB Jordan Travis last week, Florida State trailed Florida 15-14 with eight minutes left in the game before a late rally to win 24-15. FSU was greatly aided by self-inflicted wounds on the Gators side, which included two player ejections and boneheaded special teams play.
The Seminoles also needed a tremendous second-half performance from their defense. FSU sacked Florida six times and held the Gators to 48 yards after halftime and -15 yards in the fourth quarter.
FSU QB Tate Rodemaker completed 12-of-25 passes for 134 yards against an objectively horrific Florida pass defense despite throwing to three NFL players in WRs Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson and TE Jaheim Bell. Rodemaker briefly exited the game after getting banged up, but returned to finish it.
FSU RB Trey Benson finished with 95 yards on 19 carries against the Gators. Sixty-two of those yards came on a pair of touchdowns in the second-half. Outside of those runs, Florida, which has a bugaboo of giving up explosive runs, held Benson in check.
Louisville's run defense, which ranks No. 25 in success rate and No. 57 in explosion, should be able to hold Benson in check (FSU's rushing offense ranks an abysmal No. 107 in success rate).
Louisville's rushing offense has been terrific this season behind the two-headed duo of Jawar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo. Those two are going to get a lot of work against an FSU run defense that can get ripped for big plays (No. 122 explosion).
For Louisville, skewing conservative and keeping the ball on the ground is the correct course of action in this game. FSU has an elite pass defense, and an elite pass rush. Louisville's passing offense has been efficient this season, but FSU's greatest defensive strength is keeping opposing aerial games off schedule.
Both of these teams rank outside the top-90 in adjusted pace. And most of FSU's sample came with Jordan Travis - they were moving slower with Rodemaker last week (so perhaps it's more accurate to say both profile as sub top-100 adjusted pace tempo teams).
Either way, this acquits itself as a slow-moving chessmatch. FSU cannot put Rodemaker into situations where it can neuter its own chances of winning - which, by extension and in consideration of Rodemaker's propensity to misread the field, chops the playbook down to size.
On the other side, UL HC Jeff Brohm knows that his most-reliable path to moving the ball in this game comes on the ground. Brohm absolutely cannot take unnecessary chances in the passing game. When he gives the ball back to Florida State, he'll make sure Rodemaker needs to travel the length of the field to punch it in.
I believe Louisville will "upset" FSU on Saturday in a result that I will not see as an upset (I'm on the moneyline as well). I also believe this game is going under.
The picks: Louisville +4.5 (play to pick 'em) | Under 51.5 (play to 49)
Big 10 championship | Indianapolis
ATL: Michigan -24.1 | ATT: 34.0
Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh's second suspension of the regular season is over. Michigan is still undefeated. There is no stopping this train. Knock me over with a feather if Michigan isn't playing Georgia for the national title in January.
The Wolverines got WR1 Roman Wilson back from injury last week. That was the good news. The bad was that Michigan lost All-American OG Zak Zinter for the season to a left leg injury
Wolverines DB Will Johnson is also questionable with a lower-leg injury. Johnson on Tuesday deemed himself a game-time decision.
Iowa's offense is a you-have-to-see-it-to-believe-it trainwreck. The coaching staff does the best it can to scheme around its utter lack of talent. The Hawkeyes weren't exactly loaded on that side of the ball to begin with.
And that was before season-ending injuries to QB Cade McNamara, TEs Luke Lachey and Erick All, and do-everything DB and special teams demon Cooper DeJean, a potential top-10 pick in April prior to his injury (on game impact alone, he still might be).
Not only that, but Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz remains uncertain whether WRs Diante Vines and Kaleb Brown will be able to play against the Wolverines.
Long story short: Iowa QB Deacon Hill, an FCS-caliber player at present time, has absolutely zero weapons to work with when he drops back. Iowa has a decent running attack. But it only tends to work against bad opponents. Penn State erased it off the map in a 31-0 victory in October.
It's hard to get that game out of your head when handicapping this one. It's also difficult to get Michigan's 41-3 2021 Big Ten championship win over Iowa out of your head.
Iowa has SP+'s No. 1 defense. But, again, it no longer has its best singular player in DeJean. Michigan has the No. 2 SP+ defense. Iowa is going to struggle to move the ball whatsoever.
We would lean Michigan, and the over (total: 35.0), which Michigan could broach by itself. But because Michigan doesn't need to win by margin, and because the tempo projects to be slow as molasses in a game between the top-2 defenses in the nation, we are ultimately going to sit this one out, confronted with numbers that are objectively fair.
The pick: No play
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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