Here's a look at College Football Week 10 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at College Football Week 10 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best College Football Week 10 Bets
2023: 72-73-4 (49.7%) ATS
2014-2022: 815-704-21 (53.6%) ATS
Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.
My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | ATL | Vegas Total | ATT | Day |
| TCU | Texas Tech | -3.0 | 0.7 | 59.5 | 59.9 | Thursday |
| Wake Forest | Duke | -12.5 | -9.9 | 45 | 44.7 | Thursday |
| South Alabama | Troy | -5.5 | -5.8 | 45.5 | 53.2 | Thursday |
| Boston College | Syracuse | -2.0 | -3.0 | 51 | 56.1 | Friday |
| Colorado St. | Wyoming | -7.0 | -8.1 | 41 | 49.4 | Friday |
| Wisconsin | Indiana | 9.5 | 12.5 | 45 | 44.2 | Saturday |
| Nebraska | Michigan St. | 3.0 | 1.8 | 34.5 | 39.2 | Saturday |
| Connecticut | Tennessee | -35.5 | -34.5 | 55 | 47.4 | Saturday |
| Kansas St. | Texas | -4.0 | -1.9 | 49.5 | 54.3 | Saturday |
| Ohio St. | Rutgers | 18.5 | 21.0 | 42.5 | 43.3 | Saturday |
| Texas A&M | Ole Miss | -3.0 | -3.2 | 54 | 71.2 | Saturday |
| Arkansas | Florida | -6.0 | -7.4 | 50.5 | 56.2 | Saturday |
| Notre Dame | Clemson | 3.0 | 3.8 | 45 | 63.7 | Saturday |
| Jacksonville St. | South Carolina | -15.5 | -14.0 | 55 | 59.6 | Saturday |
| Navy | Temple | 6.5 | 5.5 | 44.5 | 43.1 | Saturday |
| Arizona St. | Utah | -11.0 | -13.7 | 41.5 | 35.3 | Saturday |
| Georgia Tech | Virginia | -2.0 | -0.1 | 58 | 65.9 | Saturday |
| Army | Air Force | -18.5 | -17.4 | 31.5 | 39.6 | Saturday |
| UTSA | North Texas | 7.5 | 9.9 | 71 | 70.9 | Saturday |
| Louisiana | Arkansas St. | 9.5 | 7.1 | 60 | 64.5 | Saturday |
| Florida Atlantic | UAB | 1.0 | -0.4 | 60 | 62.4 | Saturday |
| South Florida | Memphis | -13.5 | -16.0 | 68.5 | 72.4 | Saturday |
| Iowa | Northwestern | 5.0 | 7.6 | 30.5 | 48.7 | Saturday |
| Florida St. | Pittsburgh | 21.5 | 22.0 | 51 | 60.4 | Saturday |
| Missouri | Georgia | -15.5 | -14.2 | 54.5 | 62.7 | Saturday |
| Illinois | Minnesota | -2.0 | -4.5 | 43 | 49.4 | Saturday |
| Oklahoma | Oklahoma St. | 6.0 | 6.7 | 61 | 64.7 | Saturday |
| Tulane | East Carolina | 17.0 | 16.8 | 47 | 39.7 | Saturday |
| UCF | Cincinnati | 4.0 | 3.4 | 59.5 | 63.9 | Saturday |
| Virginia Tech | Louisville | -9.5 | -10.3 | 48 | 55 | Saturday |
| James Madison | Georgia St. | 5.5 | 4.0 | 54.5 | 62.1 | Saturday |
| Houston | Baylor | -4.0 | 2.0 | 58 | 64.2 | Saturday |
| Penn St. | Maryland | 8.5 | 7.9 | 51 | 58.7 | Saturday |
| Coastal Carolina | Old Dominion | 1.0 | -0.3 | 50.5 | 46.7 | Saturday |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | 12.5 | 12.4 | 49.5 | 55.4 | Saturday |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Southern Miss | -2.5 | -5.5 | 56 | 50.1 | Saturday |
| Hawai’i | Nevada | -3.5 | -4.5 | 50.5 | 44.2 | Saturday |
| Charlotte | Tulsa | -4.0 | -2.7 | 47.5 | 45.9 | Saturday |
| California | Oregon | -24.0 | -25.1 | 59 | 68.8 | Saturday |
| UNLV | New Mexico | 10.0 | 5.0 | 61 | 76.4 | Saturday |
| Louisiana Tech | Liberty | -16.5 | -17.0 | 58.5 | 63.2 | Saturday |
| Middle Tennessee | New Mexico St. | -3.0 | -7.3 | 56.5 | 48.3 | Saturday |
| Marshall | Appalachian St. | -3.5 | 1.3 | 55.5 | 73 | Saturday |
| Brigham Young | West Virginia | -10.0 | -3.4 | 51 | 60.3 | Saturday |
| Utah St. | San Diego St. | 2.5 | -1.0 | 57 | 66.7 | Saturday |
| Georgia Southern | Texas St. | 2.0 | 1.1 | 70.5 | 74.6 | Saturday |
| Kansas | Iowa St. | -2.5 | -4.1 | 54 | 58.5 | Saturday |
| Purdue | Michigan | -32.5 | -30.5 | 50.5 | 60.7 | Saturday |
| Kentucky | Mississippi St. | 3.5 | 2.0 | 46 | 57.5 | Saturday |
| Washington | USC | 3.0 | 1.0 | 76 | 85 | Saturday |
| SMU | Rice | 12.0 | 12.1 | 59.5 | 63.4 | Saturday |
| LSU | Alabama | -3.0 | -6.8 | 60.5 | 72.3 | Saturday |
| Miami (FL) | North Carolina St. | 4.5 | 5.1 | 45 | 58.3 | Saturday |
| Stanford | Washington St. | -13.0 | -15.1 | 59.5 | 65.5 | Saturday |
| Western Kentucky | UTEP | 8.5 | 4.8 | 54.5 | 48.6 | Saturday |
| Boise St. | Fresno St. | -3.0 | -1.8 | 55 | 64.5 | Saturday |
| Oregon St. | Colorado | 13.5 | 15.0 | 62 | 73.9 | Saturday |
| UCLA | Arizona | 3.0 | -0.9 | 51 | 53.5 | Saturday |
Jacksonville State (+15.5) at South Carolina
ATL: uSC -14.0
Gamecocks vs. Gamecocks!
Rich Rodriguez has his JSU Gamecocks at 7-2 in their first season in the FBS. This is JSU's shot to make a statement on the national stage. And they have a down SEC opponent to make it against.
J-State runs the fastest-tempo offense in the FBS. And as is customary for a RichRod team, they're extremely dangerous on the ground.
South Carolina's No. 87 SP+ defense has had issues slowing offenses of all shapes and colors, coughing up 30-plus to six-of-seven FBS opponents (24 to the other in a loss). uSC ranks No. 105 in defensive rushing success rate, a bad omen against this run-heavy RichRod outfit.
On the other side of the ball, JSU is top-20 in defensive havoc while uSC, which has struggled with O-line issues all year, is No. 105 in havoc allowed.
South Carolina will put up points, but JSU's ability to generate TFL and passes defended will suppress uSC's scoring enough to, in conjunction with JSU's ground offense, keep the fightin' RichRods within this number.
The pick: Jacksonville State +15.5 (play to +14)
Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson
ATL: ND -3.8
Can Clemson pull itself out of the tank? And even if it plays its "A" game, will that be good enough to beat Notre Dame?
I'm betting the answer to at least that latter question is "No."
Clemson has not won a game since October 7. That was an ugly 17-12 win over hapless Wake Forest. The Tigers are coming off a 24-17 loss to NC State. Notre Dame slapped that NC State team around 45-24 in September.
Clemson's offense remains the issue. It has played four defenses ranked inside the SP+ top-49. Only once in those four games has Clemson broken the 20-point barrier - a 31-24 loss to Florida State.
Clemson went 0-4 SU in those games (4-0 in the others), averaging 17 PPG. Notre Dame's No. 8 SP+ defense is easily the best that Clemson will have faced this season.
On the other side of the ball, we're hoping for 21 points or more out of Notre Dame to bag this cover. The Irish have faced four top-33 SP+ defenses. The Irish averaged 25 PPG in those games (but did suffer both their losses - to Ohio State and Louisville).
I like the Irish 24-17.
The pick: Notre Dame -3 (play to -4)
Kansas State (+6.5) at Texas
ATL: UT -2.2
I hopped on this one early on Sunday, expecting what appeared to be an inflated line to move in KSU's direction. That's exactly what's happened. As of this writing, this game had a consensus UT -4 line across the market.
I'd still fire on the Wildcats at that number. To both me and my system, this game should be closer to a pick 'em.
Texas QB1 Quinn Ewers is going to miss another game with his shoulder injury. QB2 Maalik Murphy went 16-for-25 for 170 yards and two TD with an INT in his starting debut in a 35-6 win over BYU last Saturday.
The Longhorns had restrictor plates on its offense in that game. Murphy gave a glimpse as to why early-on, throwing an interception and losing a fumble in the first half against BYU's middling defense. Texas' defense and special teams were the reason it dominated in that win.
This week, against a KSU team that comes in hot, winners of three-straight, Texas is going to need to ask much, much more of Murphy. And it simply cannot afford for him to turn the ball over. You cannot give KSU good field position without suffering the consequences.
The Wildcats are top-10 nationally in both offensive success rate and points per scoring opportunity. KSU's vaunted rushing attack against UT's superb run defense is must-see TV. The winner of that in-game matchup will also reveal which of these teams wins the game.
I'm banking on a few Murphy turnovers, and I believe KSU's run game will present enough of a puzzle to Texas' front to scratch out the necessary points to give itself a chance to win late. Happy to take the points in a game I see as a coinflip.
The pick: Kansas State +6.5 (play to +3)
Oklahoma (-5.5) vs. Oklahoma State
ATL: OU -6.7
Last week, we effectively faded Oklahoma against Kansas. We're flipping sides this week.
We tried to fade Oklahoma State last week and didn't have as much success against a Cincinatti team that still cannot get out of its own way. We're going to try again here. We're getting a great sell-high price on Okie State in addition to the buy-low opportunity on the Sooners coming off its upset loss to the Jayhawks.
Bedlam has given us several classics over the years, and multiple stunning upsets. But since 2015, only two-of-eight Bedlam games have been decided by single-digits. Oklahoma won seven of those eight games (only once by single-digits; 2018).
Oklahoma State's defense is ripe for the picking. It ranks a lowly No. 127 in marginal explosiveness. OSU has only faced two top-45 SP+ offenses this fall. Neither were powerful throwing offenses (K-State and Kansas with QB2 Bean). Despite that fact, OSU has poor pass defense metrics. OSU is particularly susceptible on the back-end.
I expect the Sooners' passing game, which played way down the rain last week against Kansas, to get back on track in a big way this week. I like Oklahoma by double-digits.
The pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (play to -7)
Houston (+4) at Baylor
ATL: Houston -2.0
My system believes the wrong team is favored.
If you'll recall, it said the same thing last week when Iowa State traveled to Baylor. In a game we had an ISU +2 ticket, the Cyclones led the entire way en route to a sweatless 30-18 win.
Houston is a very different kind of matchup for Baylor. Last week, Baylor got muscled by ISU. This week, they'll have to contend with Houston's myriad perimeter playmakers in space.
Baylor has decent cornerbacks, but the Bears' safeties have been mistake-riddled, leading to explosive opportunities for opponents.
Baylor's run defense is also one of the nation's worst. In six games against P5 opponents, the Bears have coughed up a minimum 188 yards and 5.3 YPC in every game. In three of the six, Baylor gave up more than 230. And against FCS Long Island, Baylor gave up 198 yards on 26 rushes.
Houston's defense is nothing to write home about, either. But the Cougars typically have good pass-rushes under Dana Holgorsen, and that's the case again this year. Houston ranks No. 38 in pressure rate.
That heat is going to be an issue for a roughshod Baylor offensive line that has been a sieve all season.
The pick: Houston +4 (play to +3)
LSU at Alabama over 60.5
ATT: 72.3
LSU has played eight games this season. Every single one went over the total. LSU's games have gone over the total by an average of 14.2 PPG - No. 1 in the nation.
That's not a surprise if you've seen the Tigers - with their dominant offense and horrible defense - play.
Here's the surprising thing: In Alabama's eight games, the over is 5-2-1. An Alabama game hasn't gone under the total since September 23.
I learn towards Alabama only laying -3 on the side. But I think the surer bet here is to bank on a shootout.
The pick: LSU-Alabama o60.5
Arizona (+3) vs. UCLA
ATL: Arizona -0.9
The 5-3 Arizona Wildcats are no fluke. In fact, they were very close to having a better record. All three of Arizona's losses have been by seven points or less.
The battle in the trenches favors Arizona in this game.
UCLA ranks No. 115 and 116, respectively, in sacks per dropback and pressure rate. Arizona is No. 38 in sacks per dropback. Arizona's defensive front is why the Wildcats rank top-30 in power success rate and stuff rate. That strength should help against UCLA's ground-heavy attack.
The Bruins are unable to take advantage of Arizona's true Achilles' heel - its pass defense. UCLA's passing offense has been as feeble as Arizona's pass defense has been generous.
The books are getting closer to catching up to how good this Arizona team actually is. But they aren't quite there yet. My system believes the Wildcats should be short favs.
The pick: Arizona +3 (play to -1)
Old Dominion (+1) vs. Coastal Carolina
ATL: ODU -0.3
With Grayson McCall officially ruled out for this game - the second game he's missed with a concussion - it's dubious whether Coastal Carolina should be a (small) favorite at Old Dominion.
CCU QB2 Jared Guest completed 46.3% of his passes for a 2/4 TD/INT rate last year. But Guest played great against Marshall last week, throwing for 289 yards and three TD.
ODU has a very good run defense (No. 39 success rate, No. 5 explosion) that is going to slow Coastal's run game. That'll put a ton of pressure on Guest to play as he did last Saturday, as opposed to how he'd played in his career up to that point.
I'm betting Guest reverts to a pumpkin this week.
Qualitatively, these teams are very similar, separated by 0.3 second-order wins against similar strengths of schedule. ODU, 4-4, desperately needs this one for its bowl dreams to come to fruition. I think the Monarchs get it.
The pick: ODU +1 (play to pick 'em)
Other bets:
Ball State (+5.5) at Bowling Green | ATL: BGU -2.9 (W)
Marshall (+3.5) at Appalachian State | ATL: Marshall -1.3
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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- Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks, & Predictions
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- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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