Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 9 Bets (2023)

Here's a look at College Football Week 9 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Here's a look at College Football Week 9 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Best College Football Week 9 Bets

2023: 69-64-4 (51.9%) ATS
2014-2022: 815-704-21 (53.6%) ATS

Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.

My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.

Away	Home	Vegas Spread	ATL	Vegas Total	ATT	Day
New Mexico St.	Louisiana Tech	-3.0	1.7	55.0	52.0	Tuesday
Liberty	Western Kentucky	4.5	4.1	61.5	68.9	Tuesday
Jacksonville St.	Florida International	9.0	9.8	47.5	47.1	Wednesday
UTEP	Sam Houston	-3.5	-3.5	37.0	30.3	Wednesday
Syracuse	Virginia Tech	-3.0	2.3	47.0	51.0	Thursday
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-1.5	1.5	63.0	64.3	Thursday
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	4.0	3.6	41.5	38.9	Friday
Houston	Kansas St.	-17.5	-16.7	59.0	72.7	Saturday
Maryland	Northwestern	13.5	11.8	48.5	64.4	Saturday
Connecticut	Boston College	-14.0	-14.2	51.5	53.8	Saturday
South Carolina	Texas A&M	-14.0	-13.4	54.0	63.9	Saturday
Tulsa	SMU	-20.5	-20.8	57.0	60.0	Saturday
West Virginia	UCF	-7.0	-10.7	59.5	61.0	Saturday
Indiana	Penn St.	-32.0	-32.3	46.0	52.6	Saturday
Oklahoma	Kansas	10.0	9.1	65.0	72.0	Saturday
UMass	Army	-10.0	-10.3	48.0	50.4	Saturday
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	3.0	0	46.5	48.4	Saturday
Clemson	North Carolina St.	10.0	9.4	44.0	64.4	Saturday
Florida St.	Wake Forest	20.5	20.7	51.0	59.2	Saturday
Duke	Louisville	-4.0	-3.9	46.5	55.0	Saturday
Virginia	Miami (FL)	-19.0	-20	47.0	69.5	Saturday
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	11.5	13.4	63.5	67.6	Saturday
Memphis	North Texas	7.5	6.5	68.5	78.0	Saturday
Michigan St.	Minnesota	-7.0	-1.3	40.5	46.1	Saturday
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-6.5	-7.3	43.5	57.1	Saturday
Brigham Young	Texas	-17.5	-15.4	50.5	63.1	Saturday
Iowa St.	Baylor	2.5	5	47.5	52.1	Saturday
Georgia	Florida	14.5	13.5	47.0	55.5	Saturday
Oregon	Utah	6.5	4.7	47.5	57.3	Saturday
Pittsburgh	Notre Dame	-20.5	-21.5	44.5	62.9	Saturday
Purdue	Nebraska	-2.5	-2.1	39.5	49.7	Saturday
East Carolina	UTSA	-18.5	-14.9	46.5	42.0	Saturday
Miami (OH)	Ohio	-7.0	-8.3	39.5	40.5	Saturday
Southern Miss	Appalachian St.	-17.0	-13.9	54.5	71.9	Saturday
USC	California	10.5	10.5	66.5	78.5	Saturday
Tulane	Rice	10.5	9.4	54.5	59.3	Saturday
Louisiana	South Alabama	-10.5	-10.8	55.0	70.7	Saturday
Arkansas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	-2.5	-2.8	56.5	48.8	Saturday
Wyoming	Boise St.	-5.0	-6.2	49.0	48.5	Saturday
Marshall	Coastal Carolina	4.0	3.5	45.0	57.1	Saturday
Tennessee	Kentucky	3.5	1.9	51.5	61.3	Saturday
Troy	Texas St.	5.5	5.3	53.0	61.5	Saturday
Washington	Stanford	26.5	26.4	60.0	67.7	Saturday
Air Force	Colorado St.	12.5	13.9	48.5	66.2	Saturday
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	14.5	14.3	43.5	52.7	Saturday
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-24.5	-24.1	63.5	77.6	Saturday
Colorado	UCLA	-17.0	-18.4	63.5	71.7	Saturday
Old Dominion	James Madison	-20.0	-18.8	49.0	58.3	Saturday
Washington St.	Arizona St.	6.0	7.5	51.0	57.0	Saturday
Cincinnati	Oklahoma St.	-7.5	-4.2	53.0	52.8	Saturday
Oregon St.	Arizona	3.5	2.5	56.5	59.4	Saturday
UNLV	Fresno St.	-7.5	-11.4	58.5	63.5	Saturday
New Mexico	Nevada	-1.0	2	49.5	51.1	Saturday
San Jose St.	Hawai’i	10.0	11.9	60.5	63.7	Saturday

Iowa State (+2) at Baylor

ATL: ISU -5.0

Its last time out, Iowa State smoked Cincinnati 30-10. That sent the Cyclones into their bye week winners of three of four. ISU started the season 1-2 - both losses were by one possession. The 10-7 loss to Ohio was one of the strangest you'll ever see. ISU made a field goal that the refs inexplicably called no-good.

The 4-3 Cyclones have already won as many games as they did during last year's nightmare 4-8 campaign. The offense has clearly turned a corner, and the defense remains salty. The latter is particularly going to be an issue for Baylor. Particularly the front-seven.

Baylor's offensive line has been a travesty this season. That has undermined the Bears' run game, and also QB Blake Shapen's ability to hang in the pocket and go through his progressions. ISU figures to spend this game in Baylor's backfield.

Last week, Baylor raced out to a 29-14 lead over Cincy before very nearly coughing the game away late. The Bears were outgained by 54 yards in that game. I don't think Baylor will be as lucky on Saturday.

The pick: ISU +2 (play to ISU -3)

UCF (-6.5) vs. West Virginia

ATL: UCF -10.7

West Virginia couldn't get off the mat following its devastating Hail Mary loss to Houston in Week 7, coughing up 282 yards and four TD to Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon in a 48-34 loss last week.

This week, the Mountaineers take on a UCF team that should be at full strength for the first time since early September.

Last week, we backed the Knights +18.5 at Oklahoma, a sweat-free cover. A failed two-point conversion attempt in the final minute prevented UCF from taking that game to overtime with a chance for the outright win.

Now, West Virginia must travel down to the Bounce House and take on a UCF team that is one of the nation's best running outfits.

UCF got QB John Rhys Plumlee back last week, the first full game he had played since Week 2. But in that game, several contributors for the Knights were battling the flu. Coming off injury, Plumlee got caught in the virus outbreak spreading throughout the roster and needed four intravenous fluid treatments during the game after sleeping the night before hooked up to an IV bag.

With the Knights returning to full health, this profiles as the perfect opportunity to secure the school's first Big 12 win coming off the near-miss. UCF is much better than their record indicates (+1.2 second order wins; ie 4-3 quality). And West Virginia is not as good as their own indicates (-0.8; ie 3-4 quality). We're going to get a market correction on Saturday.

The pick: UCF -6.5 (play to -8)

Kansas (+10) vs. Oklahoma

ATL: OU -9.1

The Jayhawks will be without QB1 Jalon Daniels again. But QB2 Jason Bean, a former starter at North Texas who now has three years experience in OC Andy Kotelnicki's system and 17 starts under his belt at Kansas, is more than an adequate replacement.

Frankly, I was surprised when Bean didn't transfer out in the offseason to the G5 for a starting gig of his own. He's a top-150 quarterback in the FBS.

Kansas can do a lot of the same sorts of things that UCF did last week that gave OU fits. You know: the pre-snap motion, the misdirection, getting the ball out quickly to the side of the field where they have the numbers advantage, and putting back-end defenders into conflict with snap-bang decisions.

Those are the kinds of things that, done right, tend to neutralize OU HC Brent Venables' exotic replacer blitzes. Because defenders don't have time to transition to their assignment before the ball is out. The subterfuge and quick-developing plays to the defense's weak side douse the flames of OU's "hair-on-fire" defensive style.

Oklahoma's offense has become noticeably less explosive since the season-ending injury to WR Andrel Anthony. If Kansas is able to put points on the board as expected on Saturday, that could become an issue for the Sooners in a game they must win by margin in order to cover.

We're going to back the Jayhawks in this spot where they come in fresh as a daisy off a bye.

The pick: Kansas +10 (play to KU +10)

Michigan State (+7) at Minnesota

ATL: Minny -1.3

These teams are mirror images of one another. You just don't realize it because Michigan State has played a much tougher strength of schedule, and because Sparty has the scandal stink.

By the advanced numbers, the offenses are of, essentially, the exact-same quality. Minnesota has a slightly better defense. Michigan State has the slightly better special teams.

The Spartans are 2-5 against SP+'s No. 5 SOS. The Gophers are 4-3 against SP+'s No. 20 SOS. But in second-order wins, MSU is +1.0 and Minnesota is -1.0, giving the schools an identical 3.0 second-order win total. MSU's was posted against the tougher SOS.

Minnesota is coming off one of the biggest regular season wins of the PJ Fleck era - a 12-10 victory at Iowa last week that marked Fleck's first win over Kirk Ferentz. Fleck was utterly jubilant in his post-game comments. Pictures circulated of the postgame raucous celebration in the locker room, where Gopher players lit cigars. (Humorously, one was smoking a cigarette).

Minnesota has been celebrating that win all week, posting pictures of Floyd of Rosedale on social media. And let's all be clear: This was a game Minnesota only won because the refs, who went under the hood to see if Iowa PR Cooper Dejean had stepped out of bounds on his apparent game-winning return, happened to also see Dejean's below-the-waist off-hand "poison" gesture to his teammates when the punt hit the ground.

By rule - a rule nobody knew existed and which needs to be revisited this offseason - this constituted an invalid fair catch. Even though every coach in America coaches his returners to do this every time a punt hits the ground. And even though it is rarely called. (Watch for yourself this weekend on any punt where the ball hits the ground - see what the return man does with his hands).

That development has had the Gopher roster partying like they just stopped an asteroid from hitting planet earth for the past week. Which sets up an all-time letdown/deflation spot for Minnesota. In a spot where it is playing an opponent that is its objective equal in reality... but nobody realizes it.

And not for nothing, Minnesota won't be at full strength for this game. The Gophers, a team that cannot throw, will be without RBs Darius Taylor and Bryce Williams in this game. Taylor re-aggravated the injury he was returning from in the Iowa game. Williams is out for the year.

RB Zach Evans has been banged up consistently. And the coaching staff doesn't trust veteran portal addition RB Sean Tyler, who was benched earlier this year. Minnesota's offensive line also has issues. In addition, LB Cody Lindenberg, an all-Big 10 linebacker last year who hasn't played a snap in 2023, was trending towards his season debut early last week before a setback withheld him again. It's unclear if he'll be able to give it a go this weekend.

The Gophers have no business laying this kind of number against a similar opponent. Particularly in these circumstances.

We're also on the moneyline. Heck, let's just call it: Sparty outright.

The pick: Michigan State +7 (play as an underdog)

Kentucky (+3.5) vs. Tennessee

ATL: Tennessee -1.9

The book is out on the Vols. They run effectively, they have an active defensive front, and they have a secondary that can get hands on balls when opposing quarterbacks get their clocks sped up.

But the Vols' passing attack is mediocre, and due to a lack of outside weapons, and QB Joe Milton's errant accuracy, Tennessee is categorically unable to hit deep shots (No. 108 explosion). And, on defense, when the Vols aren't sacking the quarterback or stoning the running back at the line, their aggression leaves them open on the back-end to big plays. Particularly against the run (No. 116 explosion).

That's important, here. Because Kentucky's offensive strength is RB Ray Davis ripping off long runs (UK is No. 4 in explosive rushing). And Kentucky has a very stout run defense (top-20 in both success rate and explosion).

Where you can beat the Wildcats is through the air. Do you trust Joe Milton to do that on the road? We like UK to spring the home upset.

The pick: Kentucky +3.5 (play to pick 'em)

Syracuse (+3) at Virginia Tech (Thursday)

ATL: Syracuse -2.3

Syracuse, 4-3 but losers of three straight, appear to be in the tank. While Virginia Tech, 3-4 but winners of two-of-three, appear to be turning it on at the right time. But that's mostly just scheduling happenstance.

The last three times out, Syracuse faced Clemson, UNC, and Florida State. The Orange did so immediately after losing difference-making WR/TE Oronde Gadsen for the season. And, last time out against Florida State, QB Garrett Shrader was so compromised by a flu virus he'd been battling in the lead-up to the game that the Orange ended up yanking him early so Shrader could get hooked up to an IV bag.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's two wins during their recent "hot streak" were over the zombified remains of Pitt and Wake Forest.

Both teams come in off a bye. Syracuse, badly banged up, needed it much more.

Syracuse is the better team. They're only getting points as opposed to laying them due to perception. This is a crucial game for both teams if they want to go bowling. We trust a Syracuse team with a veteran team and staff to get it done now that their quarterback is healthy in a return to a boxing match within the team's weight class.

The pick: Syracuse +3 (play to pick 'em)

Other bets:

New Mexico (+1) at Nevada | ATL: NM -2.0
Boston College (-12) vs. UConn | ATL: BC -14.3
Cincinnati (+7.5) at Oklahoma State | ATL: OSU -4.2
UTEP-Sam Houston UNDER 37.5 | ATT: 30.3 (Wednesday)

Tuesday bets:

New Mexico State (+3) at Louisiana Tech (WIN)
Liberty (-4.5) at WKU (WIN)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: