Thor Nystrom’s Tennessee Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

This comprehensive breakdown will give you an in-depth overview of the Tennessee Volunteers. You’ll get a closer look at the roster, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. For an overview of the entire conference, check out Thor’s SEC Preview & Win Totals article.

In the world of sports betting, it’s not always about who wins or loses, but by how much. After taking into account the returning starters and recent developments, I will share my projections that may differ from the popular opinion (and the lines provided by sportsbooks).

Thor’s Conference Previews

Tennessee Preview & Win Totals Bets

Note: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:

2022 win totals final standings:

Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:

Same number as Vegas: 7
System 0.1-0.5: 31-20 | 60.8%
System 0.6-1: 16-27-1 | 35.5%
System 1.1-1.5: 12-4 | 75.0%
System 1.6-2.0: 8-2-1 | 80.0%
System 2.1+: 2-0 | 100%

System Breakdown:

System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

16. Tennessee Volunteers

Returning Starters: 5 offense, 7 defense

The Vols led the nation in total offense and scoring offense last year and have a ready-made replacement for QB Hendon Hooker in Joe Milton. The skill group is full of diverse weapons. The offense line is experienced. The unit, entering Year 3 under HC Josh Heupel, is well-versed in running Heupel's aggressive, option-based, breakneck-tempo scheme that is next to impossible for opposing defenses to prepare for.

Last year's Tennessee team had one fatal flaw, and it'll be interesting to see to what degree that has been addressed in 2023: The Vols' pass defense was horrific. Any competent throwing team could return fire with Tennessee, leading to wild shootouts. The good news is the same as the bad news: Eight defensive backs with starting experience return. The run defense, already strong, is going to be again with plenty of experience returning and former BYU standout LB Keenan Pili joining the fun this season.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.0
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

Tennessee has four coin-flip games and a likely loss coming against Georgia. That accounts for my system's 9-3 projection. Go 3-1 in those coin-flip games, and the Vols are very, very likely going over. If they go 1-3 in them, they're guaranteed not to. My system leans under. But too much is up in the air for me to make a referendum.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Virginia	Tennessee*	-21.2	1
Austin Peay	Tennessee	-44.0	1
Tennessee	Florida	-2.7	0.55
UTSA	Tennessee	-16.3	0.95
South Carolina	Tennessee	-10.0	0.82
Texas A&M	Tennessee	-1.6	0.52
Tennessee	Alabama	-9.3	0.8
Tennessee	Kentucky	-1.5	0.52
Connecticut	Tennessee	-29.8	1
Tennessee	Missouri	-5.3	0.67
Georgia	Tennessee	10.6	0.16
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-24.4	1

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