Thor Nystrom’s Texas A&M Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

This comprehensive breakdown will give you an in-depth overview of the Texas A&M Aggies. You’ll get a closer look at the roster, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections.

In the world of sports betting, it’s not always about who wins or loses, but by how much. After taking into account the returning starters and recent developments, I will share my projections that may differ from the popular opinion (and the lines provided by sportsbooks).

Thor’s Conference Previews

Texas A&M Preview & Win Totals Bets

Note: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:

2022 win totals final standings:

Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:

Same number as Vegas: 7
System 0.1-0.5: 31-20 | 60.8%
System 0.6-1: 16-27-1 | 35.5%
System 1.1-1.5: 12-4 | 75.0%
System 1.6-2.0: 8-2-1 | 80.0%
System 2.1+: 2-0 | 100%

System Breakdown:

System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

15. Texas A&M Aggies

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense

You may not remember it, but the Aggies actually had the nation's No. 1 passing defense while finishing No. 22 in scoring defense last year. The problem was everything else. The front seven got pushed around - the first time a Jimbo Fisher team had ever allowed over 170 YPG rushing... and they coughed up 208.8! - and the offense was a catastrophe. Can the offense and run defense be fixed in one offseason? If both can, this'll be a rags-to-riches story. Perhaps not a feel-good one, as Bobby Petrino and DJ Durkin are the two men responsible for fixing those problems - but we digress.

Petrino and Durkin both have all the talent they need for their respective tasks - this isn't mission impossible. A&M's starting offense is littered with sophomores and juniors who were former top-15 recruits at their respective positions. Offensive success tends to follow Petrino - he's going to improve this unit, we just don't yet know by how much (that'll determine A&M's 2023 ceiling). Durkin is in a similar boat. Year before last, A&M signed six of the top 10 consensus defensive line recruits in the nation, which had never been done before. This year, six-of-seven starters in the front-seven return. The run defense will be better - by how much is another factor that could swing the outcome of a game or two.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 8.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Over

Interestingly, my win total for A&M is identical to what my system spit out last summer. Obviously, the Aggies greatly underwhelmed, due to a confluence of devastating injuries, inexperience, and poor play-calling. But it's more plausible that last year was an aberration than a new rule. Between the talent on hand and Petrino's history of offensive success, I'm banking on a bounceback to previous norms for this proud program. I say A&M finishes 9-3.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
New Mexico	Texas A&M	-39.0	1
Texas A&M	Miami (FL)	-4.5	0.66
Louisiana-Monroe	Texas A&M	-38.2	1
Auburn	Texas A&M	-7.8	0.77
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	-6.0	0.7
Texas A&M*	Arkansas	-5.5	0.68
Texas A&M	Tennessee	1.6	0.48
South Carolina	Texas A&M	-10.6	0.84
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	0.48
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	-11.5	0.86
Abilene Christian	Texas A&M	-44.0	1
Texas A&M	LSU	8.9	0.2

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