As the MLB Season hits its annual pause, it's a great time to take stock of the current futures market and see where the value lies. While some futures/awards plays have clear favorites, there are still enough games left for some significant shifts before we reach October.
World Series Champion: New York Mets (+700)
At this point in the season, the Yankees (+300) and Dodgers (+350) are the favorites from each league to win the World Series. While both teams have impressed thus far, team performance before the All-Star break isn't always predictive of playoff success. Over the last five full MLB seasons, only two World Series winners led their league at the All-Star break (Boston 2018, Houston 2017).
If we're pulling our contender from a team outside the top two, I love the value of betting the Mets at +700. In recent years, the Mets surpassed "Who's On First" as the most widely known joke in baseball. They've built aggressively over the last couple of seasons, and their fans' patience is finally paying off. At 58-35 at the break, they're just 3.5 games back of the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League.
The Mets have a great blend of star power and depth for a playoff run. Pete Alonso is the face of their offense, but contributions up and down the lineup from Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo, among others, make the Mets lineup one of the most potent in baseball.
Max Scherzer is the headliner of the pitching staff, but Taijuan Walker is pitching very well with a 2.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 91.2 innings. With Jacob deGrom's return looming, it's hard to see any other team in the MLB matching up well with that rotation in the playoffs. Additionally, Edwin Diaz has been arguably the best closer in baseball this year, with a 1.69 ERA, 20 saves, and 75 K's in 37.1 innings.
There's no baseball team that the Mets can't hang with in a playoff series. With the +700 price available, they're a better value play than the Dodgers or Yankees right now.
Favorite Division Winner: Cleveland Guardians (+450)
Currently, there are only three divisions in baseball where the first place team has fewer than nine games of separation. Of these three divisions (AL Central, NL East, NL Central), only the AL Central is an actual three-team race. Just three games separate the Twins, White Sox, and Guardians.
The Guardians sit at the back of this group of teams. They have two All-Star starters in their lineup, including fringe MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, and another All-Star on their pitching staff in Shane Beiber. Cleveland has been inconsistent in the first half and suffered from a strange scheduling quirk – due to rainouts, they've played seven doubleheaders so far this season. The toll this puts on a pitching staff looks like it's starting to catch up to them. Over their last five doubleheaders, they're 0-5 in the second game while allowing an average of 6.0 runs per game. Cleveland has a couple more doubleheaders looming in the second half, but hopefully, the All-Star break can give their arms the rest they need.
The Guardians also suffered from a lack of depth throughout the lineup early this year, but some lower-profile players are starting to turn things around. Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan, and Franmil Reyes are all playing their best baseball of the season over the last few weeks.
With a lineup that's showing signs of coming around, an easier second-half schedule, and the star power to win big games, Cleveland's an excellent bet at +450 in a division that's close to a three-way coin flip right now.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman (+1500)
If the vote happened today, Paul Goldschmidt would be the rightful MVP on the NL side, as his current price of +105 reflects.
While Goldschmidt has had a fantastic first half, his numbers cooled a bit since an incredible start to the season. Over his last 30 games, he's slashing .315/.402/.550 with 6 HRs and 19 RBI. This would put him on pace for an impressive season, but his numbers aren't necessarily trending in the right direction for an MVP title.
If we're looking for a sleeper play for NL MVP, I love the value in Freeman at +1500. The Dodgers are crowding the NL MVP leaderboards, with Mookie Betts carrying a price of +1300 and Trea Turner currently priced at +1700. This effectively means betting markets are putting a +400 price on someone from the Dodgers winning MVP.
Freeman is playing the best baseball of the three right now – he currently leads the trio in WAR, batting average, OBP, and SLG pct.
If the Dodgers finish the regular season on top of the National League, Freeman will have a strong case for MVP. Get in at this price while you can.
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (+150)
In the weeks leading up to the All-Star Break, all the AL MVP hype has been around Shohei Ohtani. Rightfully so – over the last month, he's slashing .283/.395/.557 with 7 HRs and 22 RBI as a hitter.
Those numbers come from someone pitching like a Cy Young contender – in his last seven starts, and he's 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and 60 K's to 12 walks. The way he's playing right now, calling him the Babe Ruth of our era is giving Ruth a little too much credit.
While Ohtani's been electric as of late, futures markets often overprice hot names based on momentum. On the season, Judge has a higher average (.284 to .258), OBP (.364 to .348), and SLG (.618 to .486) with more HRs (33 to 19) and RBI (70 to 56).
Judge's Yankees playing nearly .700 baseball going into the break will help his narrative. In comparison, Ohtani's Angels sit at 14 games below .500 and are on pace to miss the playoffs by a wide margin.
Factor in some level of voter fatigue toward Ohtani, and I'm taking Judge while I can still get him at plus money.
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (+700)
Sandy Alcantara has been the best pitcher in the National League this season. His 1.76 ERA is the lowest in the NL by a wide margin. He's maintained that low ERA over 138.1 innings (most in the NL). If the season ended today, he'd be an easy choice for the NL Cy Young.
Despite Alcantara's dominance, there's still plenty of time for new storylines to play out before votes are cast. In full seasons since 2015, the MLB leader in innings pitched has averaged 222.0 innings pitched. In that time frame, nobody has gone above 232.2 innings pitched.
Ninety-one games through the Marlins' season, Alcantara is on pace to pitch 246 innings in 2022. There are two ways this can end for Alcantara: he smashes the standard of pitcher stamina set in the last seven years (which could hurt performance), or he dials back his innings count.
If we look past Alcantara, Corbin Burnes looms with the second lowest odds to take the award home in 2022. Burnes had a rough outing on June 3 against the Padres, allowing five earned runs on eight hits over 3.2 innings. He's been the best pitcher in the NL since – over seven games, he's 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9.
If Burnes keeps this up, the conversation at the end of September could very well be around how he carried the Brewers to the playoffs while Alcantara sees some of his numbers suffer from a high workload. At the price offered, Burnes is a great value for NL Cy Young.
AL Cy Young: Shane McClanahan (+210)
Unlike other award races, value in the AL Cy Young competition lies at the top of the leaderboard.
McClanahan has been incredible in his second entire season for the Rays, going 10-3 with a 1.71 ERA and 147 K's (12.0 K/9). He's dialed it up as the season has gone on – since early June, his ERA is 1.17, and his WHIP is a microscopic 0.63. McClanahan has been a big reason why the Rays are in the thick of the playoff race. Unlike Alcantara, his workload up until this point should allow him to continue pitching at this rate all year.
Behind McClanahan, the race gets a little murky. Justin Verlander has the second-shortest odds at +260. However, McClanahan has been better than Verlander all season. While Verlander has been hot lately, McClanahan has elevated his game more than Verlander in recent starts. Verlander's price feels a bit like you're paying for the name.
The player most on my radar to jump McClanahan is Shohei Ohtani (+850). As mentioned in the AL MVP section, Ohtani has recently been electric on the mound. If he doesn't end up taking home MVP, voters could tab him for Cy Young as recognition for the incredible season he's had.
That said, I feel good about playing McClanahan here – it's not a lock, but he's been a cut above the rest of the AL, and nobody seems to be gaining ground on him.
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