Among this week's NFL player props, we're backing two young quarterbacks, one of whom is playing a homecoming game. We're also fading a quarterback despite his appealing matchup, and we're getting deep into the weeds at tight end.
We'll dive into the Week 6 plays in a moment. But before we do, a quick recap of Week 5...
Wins: Justin Fields over 183.5 passing yards, Emari Demercado over 20.5 rushing yards, Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 31.5 rushing yards, Hunter Renfrow under 26.5 receiving yards, Garrett Wilson over 63.5 receiving yards
Losses: Cooper Rush over 185.5 passing yards, Isaiah Davis over 14.5 rushing yards, TreVeyon Henderson over 24.5 rushing yards
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Among this week's NFL player props, we're backing two young quarterbacks, one of whom is playing a homecoming game. We're also fading a quarterback despite his appealing matchup, and we're getting deep into the weeds at tight end.
We'll dive into the Week 6 plays in a moment. But before we do, a quick recap of Week 5...
Wins: Justin Fields over 183.5 passing yards, Emari Demercado over 20.5 rushing yards, Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards, Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 31.5 rushing yards, Hunter Renfrow under 26.5 receiving yards, Garrett Wilson over 63.5 receiving yards
Losses: Cooper Rush over 185.5 passing yards, Isaiah Davis over 14.5 rushing yards, TreVeyon Henderson over 24.5 rushing yards
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best Week 6 NFL Player Props & Bets
Last week: 6-3 | Season record: 24-13 | Betting lines are from Hard Rock Bet as of Thursday night
Making his first NFL start against the Vikings last week in London, Dillon Gabriel didn't appear to be in over his head, even though he had a difficult matchup against Minnesota.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for pressuring quarterbacks in creative ways, but Gabriel stayed cool. The rookie completed 19-of-33 passes for 190 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Gabriel's second start will come Sunday in Pittsburgh. It's a tough place for a young quarterback to play, but Pittsburgh's pass defense isn't as tough as Minnesota's. The Vikings are allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 175 passing yards per game. The Steelers are giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 282.8 passing yards per game.
The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet gives this play a five-star rating and a 68% chance of covering, projecting Gabriel for 216.2 passing yards.
Bryce Young's matchup against the Cowboys looks delicious. Dallas has allowed a league-high 304 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys' opponent’s passer rating of 117.2 is second-worst behind only the Dolphins.
Young has struggled this season, though. He's averaging an anemic 5.5 yards per pass attempt and has been held to fewer than 200 passing yards in four of his five starts. Young has one of the worst groups of pass-catchers in the league, with rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan his only reliable target.
I actually like that the favorable matchup is driving up Young's yardage total to a number he'll have a hard time reaching. Fade Young and take the under.
After a turbulent rookie season, Caleb Williams is playing well this season under new Bears head coach Ben Johnson. Williams is averaging 231.8 passing yards per game and 7.1 yards per attempt - significant improvements on the 208.3 yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt he averaged last year.
The Bears are coming off a Week 5 bye, so Johnson has had time to focus on this week's matchup against the Commanders and plot an early-game script for Williams. Expect to see some of the best stuff from Johnson's playbook early on.
This will be a homecoming game for Williams, who was born and raised in Washington, D.C. He'll get a favorable matchup against a Commanders defense ranked fifth in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against the run but 18th against the pass. Washington is allowing 254.4 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
The Seahawks are dedicated to running the ball. Seattle has been the league's run-heaviest team this season, running on 50% of its offensive snaps.
Kenneth Walker got off to a sluggish start in Week 1 with 10 carries for 20 yards against the 49ers. In the four games since, he's averaged 14.5 carries and 77.5 rushing yards per game. Walker is averaging 4.9 yards per carry for the season and 5.3 yards per carry over his last four contests.
After rushing for 86 yards against the tough Tampa Bay run defense last week, Walker gets a softer Week 6 matchup against a Jacksonville run defense ranked 24th in DVOA.
This is a relatively low bar for Walker to clear, and with Seattle's commitment to the running game, it shouldn't be a problem.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared this number in each of his last two games and in three out of five games this season. He's averaging 61.2 receiving yards per game and an impressive 9.6 yards per target.
The Cardinals visit the Colts this week. Indianapolis has given up the second-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, who are averaging 161.8 receiving yards per game against Indy.
A trip to Indianapolis is meaningful for Harrison, whose Hall of Fame dad, Marvin Harrison Sr., played the entirety of his 13-year NFL career with the Colts.
David Njoku was off to a slow start this season, but the Browns' Week 5 quarterback change seemed to reinvigorate the veteran tight end. Playing with rookie Dillon Gabriel, Njoku was targeted nine times and had six catches for a season-high 67 yards and a touchdown.
This week, Njoku gets a favorable matchup against the Steelers, who are giving up 62.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Njoku has topped this number in five of his last six games against the Steelers.
Look for Njoku to continue to be Gabriel's security blanket. Bet the over.
Darren Waller has fared well in his first two games with the Dolphins, catching three passes for 27 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets in Week 4, then making five grabs for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers in Week 5.
But Waller only had a 27.6% snap share in Week 4 and a 58.2% snap share in Week 5. And his matchup against the Chargers this week is nasty. The Chargers are allowing only 29 receiving yards per game to tight ends, and Chargers safety Derwin James is a matchup nightmare for tight ends.
Waller's fast start with the Dolphins could come to a screeching halt this week.
Tucker Kraft has been the Packers' most efficient pass-catcher this season, averaging 14.1 yards per catch and 11.6 yards per target, with an 80% catch rate.
One of the best young tight ends in the league, Kraft should feast on a Bengals defense that hasn't fared well against tight ends this season. The Bengals are giving up 69 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fourth-most in the league.
Kraft and the Packers will be at home for this one. The last time Kraft played at Lambeau Field, he had six catches for 124 yards against the Commanders. Expect some more home cooking from Kraft this Sunday.
