Welcome to mid-major Friday. There are 45 games on today’s slate, and not one of them is from one of the power five conferences. This is a great chance to gain an edge over the oddsmakers who are likely not as familiar with these teams as they are other schools. It is also an excellent opportunity to scout some teams that have a great chance to go on to be Cinderellas in the big dance. Just because there are no rankings next to any of these teams, that does not mean there will not be exciting action.
Here are two picks for Friday.
YTD: 104-87-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Bellarmine (-6) at North Florida: 7:00 PM ET
If you have never heard of the Bellarmine Knights, it is because they have not been a Division 1 basketball team for very long. However, in their first-ever season as a D1 member, the Knights are making their presence known quickly. Bellarmine was picked to finish last in the ASUN preseason media poll but currently finds themselves atop the standings ahead of usual NCAA tournament stalwarts like Liberty and Lipscomb.
The Knights are currently on a ten-game winning streak, having swept their last five back-to-backs. Their lone two road losses have come against ACC opponents in Duke and Notre Dame, so a trip to Jacksonville to take on North Florida should seem like a walk in the park. Meanwhile, North Florida has lost three of its last four games and is just 1-3 SU against the conference’s top three teams.
This is a clear mismatch on paper, as the Bellarmine ranks first in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and two-point shooting percentage. By contrast, North Florida ranks dead-last in adjusted defensive efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage allowed.
Bellarmine is 11-5 ATS and 7-2 ATS as a road team this season. However, they are still not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers considering they are still a largely unknown commodity. Let this under-the-radar gem make you money while they can.
In its first year as a D1 member, Bellarmine has won eight games in a row and sits alone in first place of the ASUN. Impressive job by Scott Davenport and the Knights.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) February 7, 2021
Utah State at Boise State (-2): 10:00 PM ET
The marquee matchup of the night is a Mountain West rematch between the conference’s best two teams. This is a fascinating matchup between two teams trying to build up enough of a resume to earn an at-large birth to the NCAA tournament if they do not win the conference tournament. Boise State took a big step towards that goal with a 79-70 win over Utah State on Wednesday night. However, the Aggies are a tempting play as a road underdog in a game they desperately need to win.
Boise State has been nearly unbeatable at home this season and is in the midst of a ten-game home winning streak. However, their trends suggest they are a much stronger team in the first game of a back-to-back series. For example, after beating San Jose State by 52 points earlier in the year, they won by one point the next game. Their margins of victory have also been less in their second games against Air Force, Wyoming, and UNLV, and they suffered a greater loss in the second game when Nevada swept them. Thus, Utah State should follow that trend and come up with a better game plan to limit the scoring potential of Derrick Alston, who scored 26 points two days ago. The Aggies’ 7’0″ center Neemias Queta will look to duplicate a 32-point and 10-rebound performance. In addition, Utah State cannot shoot any worse from three-point range than they did on Wednesday night, after going 3-for-16 from deep.
Utah State is a sensational 11-3 ATS in conference games and 5-1 ATS with just one day off, so look for them to turn in another outstanding performance on short rest.
Huge win for Boise State tonight over Utah State. Moves Boise to the top of the Mountain West standings, ahead of USU. Also gives them a better resume than USU. Rematch on Friday - Utah State likely needs that one to have any at-large hopes.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) February 18, 2021
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.