I hope everyone had a happy and healthy Christmas. Though just four college basketball games were played yesterday, they did not disappoint as the Big Ten showed how deep and competitive of a conference it is going to be this year. As many teams are still enjoying an extended Christmas break, there are just 12 Division I games on today’s slate. However, it is a monster slate with five ranked teams in action, as well as one of college basketball’s most fierce rivalries in Kentucky-Louisville.
With a smaller slate, here are our two best bets for Saturday.
YTD: 38-22-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Kentucky at Louisville: OVER 133.5
(1:00 PM ET tip)
There is no denying that the Kentucky Wildcats are the off to the most disappointing start of any team in the country given their preseason expectations. Their issues have stemmed largely from the fact that they cannot score the basketball. They have been held to 64 points or less in five straight games, which not coincidentally has resulted in five losses. The Wildcats rank 251st in the country in effective field goal percentage and 318th in three-point percentage. They take on a Louisville team that has held three of their last four opponents to 64 points or less. However, if you remove the teams Louisville has played than rank outside of the top 80 of KenPom’s rankings, they are allowing 70 PPG.
The under is 6-0 in Kentucky’s last six games, but I believe oddsmakers are going to adjust accordingly and it starts with this high-profile game against their bitter rivals. Neither team ranks in the top 230 in the country in forcing turnovers, and both rank outside the top 60 in effective field goal percentage defense. While the majority of bets are likely to be on the under because of the offensively challenged Wildcats, we believe regression to the mean suggests Kentucky will finally have a game go over the projected total.
Gonzaga vs. Virginia: UNDER 140
(4:00 PM ET tip)
While betting an over in a Kentucky Wildcats game seems blasphemous, wagering on the under in a Gonzaga game seems just as egregious. The Bulldogs have played a top-notch schedule with three of their six games coming against the top-seven of the AP poll, and in those games they have averaged 96 PPG. However, none of those opponents play the same tempo or style, and with the same attention to detail on the defensive end of the court as Virginia.
The Cavaliers play at the 357th slowest tempo in the country, and may slow it down even more so as to not get into a track meet with Gonzaga. They have the size in Jay Huff, Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy to match up with Gonzaga’s huge frontline. In addition, Kihei Clark is one of the most pesky on-ball defenders in the country and will give Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard fits. The Cavaliers defend the pick-and-roll with a hard hedge better than anyone in the country, and their pack-line defense will make Gonzaga shoot over the top more so than they are accustomed to. The under is 7-2 in Virginia’s last nine games, and is 4-1 in their last five neutral site games as an underdog. Once again, we will take the contrarian side when the betting public is expecting more offensive fireworks from the top-ranked team in the nation.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.