While it often seems we focus on the Power Five conferences in this column, we must give one team flying under-the-radar their due. The Drake Bulldogs are not only 11-0 SU; they have covered all 11 games so far. They became the first team to cover the spread in their first 10 games since Portland State in 2018. In case you are wondering, they have back-to-back games against Loyola Chicago on Sunday and Monday.
Here are three picks for Wednesday.
YTD: 47-37-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Pittsburgh at Syracuse: OVER 140.5
(4:30 PM ET tip)
The Pittsburgh Panthers are very familiar with the Syracuse Orange, as their 104 meetings against them are the second-most they have played against any other school. Their games over the last few seasons have all been defensive struggles. The Panthers and Orange have not combined for more than 137 points in their last seven meetings. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 66 points in any of their last eight trips to the Carrier Dome, and as the underdog in this game, over backers want to be assured that they will do their part in the scoring. Then why did this total open at 140.5 points? This line smells awfully fishy and makes me believe Vegas knows something about this year’s matchup will be different.
One angle for liking the over is that the Carrier Dome does not feel as cavernous during the pandemic. Since there are no fans in the stands, much of the arena is blocked off, and it has a much smaller feel. This should help shooters with their depth perception, and Pittsburgh will need plenty of it as they will have to shoot over the top of the Orange’s 2-3 zone most of the night.
The Syracuse offense is averaging 83.7 PPG and has been held to less than 70 points twice all season. They were without third-leading scorer Buddy Boeheim’s services in one of those games, who missed the game because of COVID-19 contact tracing. Pittsburgh has had two weeks two prepare for Syracuse’s zone, as they have not played a game since December 22nd.
Though the under is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s last for games, oddsmakers are likely in tune with that trend and have set their total accordingly. We prefer to rally behind the trend that the over is 23-11-1 in Syracuse’s last 35 games.
Virginia Tech at Louisville: Louisville -4
(6:30 PM ET tip)
The fact that the Louisville Cardinals are off to a 7-1 start is not surprising. However, it is shocking that they have won seven of their first eight games without two key projected starters playing a single minute this season. Head coach Chris Mack already ruled out Charles Minlend for this game with a knee injury. Meanwhile, Malik Williams is not expected to return until later this season as he continues to recover from a foot injury. Despite their absence, Louisville has not missed a beat as they have been carried by the backcourt duo of Carlik Jones and David Johnson.
Jones and Johnson have combined for 30.8 PPG and are each averaging more than 35 minutes per game. That kind of usage may not be sustainable over the course of the season, but Louisville will be a much deeper team when Minlend and Williams join the team. The Cardinals rank in the top-44 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They make free throws at a much higher percentage than Virginia Tech and do a better job than the Hokies of defending the three-point line.
Virginia Tech is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games, while Louisville is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Look for the Cardinals to improve to 3-0 in conference play with a big win over the Hokies.
Arkansas at Tennessee: UNDER 142.5
(7:00 PM ET tip)
Unfortunately for the Arkansas Razorbacks, they face a Tennessee team who is coming off their first loss of the season. The Volunteers were uncharacteristically carved up by Alabama’s offense, allowing 10 made three-points and allowing the Crimson Tide to shoot 50% from three-point range. Arkansas is also coming off their first loss of the season, as they were humbled in a 13-point home loss to Missouri. With both teams looking to avoid a mini-losing streak, look for each to ratchet up the defensive intensity.
Like Tennessee, Arkansas played poor defense in their last game. Though they defended the three-point line well, they still allowed Missouri to shoot 47.1% from the field. More concerning is that they were out-rebounded by 15 and still allowed 81 points despite forcing 21 turnovers.
Tennessee is the best team in the country in terms of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Arkansas ranks 44th in the same category, and both teams rank in the top five in the country in percentages of shots blocked.
Though the over has hit in 23 of Arkansas’s last 29 games, scoring at their usual pace against a mad Tennessee team is going to be too difficult of a challenge.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.