Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday, July 9 (2022)

We started off the weekend with a bang, winning all three of our bets yesterday. Let’s see if we can continue this rally into today’s slate.

I hope you’ve been tailing and making money with us!

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are being celebrated for being a .500 baseball team. It’s been a while since they’ve been competitive. Good on them.

But tonight, I think the winning streak ends.

Pablo Sandoval will take the hill for the Angels with a 3.90 xFIP in the last 30 days. The left-handed pitcher struck out 27.5% of plate appearances in that time frame and will face an Orioles lineup that has more below-average hitters against lefties than above-average hitters in the last 30 days.

The lineup only has three players hitting a wOBA of .345 or higher. If Sandoval can get through Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, and Ramon Urias, he’ll have a sneaky good outing.

Meanwhile, Dean Kramer will get the start for the Orioles. The righty has a 5.46 xFIP in the last 30 days while striking out just 17.2% of plate appearances in that time frame.

The Angels have struck out 30.1% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. But again, Kramer has only struck out about half of that amount in the last 30 days. Therefore, if the Angels can just put the ball in play, good things will happen for them.

Take the Angels on the moneyline today.

Bet: Angels (-130 at DraftKings)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

I’m still going to ride than Brandon Woodruff train.

Woodruff returned from injury and has looked like his old self since. He has a 1.55 xFIP through his last 40 plate appearances after striking out 45% of those plate appearances.

The Pirates are pretty elite in at the top of their order between Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, and Daniel Vogelbach, but other than those three batters, the Pirates don’t have another batter hitting better than a .304 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days.

On the other hand, the Pirates will send out Zach Thompson, who has a 5.52 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s struck out just 14.3% of plate appearances in that time frame while walking 12.5% of those plate appearances.

He’s also held batters to a .167 BABIP, which is unsustainable for a pitcher giving up 48.8% of hard contact.

Take the Brewers on the run line.

Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

Robbie Ray will get the start for the Mariners tonight, going up against his old team. I’m expecting that he’ll put together a solid performance.

In the last 30 days, Ray has had a 3.78 xFIP while striking out 32% of plate appearances. He’s induced more than 50% of ground balls in that time frame and has allowed just 5.5% of line drives when balls are batted into play.

The Blue Jays will have a heavily right-handed lineup but ultimately, only Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez have been truly elite against lefties in the last 30 days. Plus, the Blue Jays have walked just 4.2% of the time against lefties in that same time frame while hitting just 12.3% of line drives.

The Blue Jays will also have an elite pitcher take the mound. It’ll be Alek Manoah, who has an xFIP of 4.69. It’s not the best number, but he’s taking on a Mariners lineup that only has one batter hitting a wOBA of .325 or better against righties in the last 30 days. Manoah has been limiting power and line drives well recently and should continue against the Mariners.

I’ll ride with the under.

Bet: Under 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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