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Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, August 16th (2022)

by August 16, 2022
Alek Manoah Blue Jays

Two late bullpen collapses by the Astros and Angels brought us from a 3-0 day to a 1-2 day, but those are the breaks. We hope to avoid such disasters with today’s three-pack of plays.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: Marlins Team Total O/U

The Miami Marlins may be 12.5 games better than Washington in the standings, but the lowly Nationals have scored ten more runs this season than the team they look up at in the standings. In fact, Miami’s 433 runs scored are only better than Pittsburgh’s 415 in the National League.

The under is 12-2 in Miami’s last 14 games, and its anemic offense is mainly responsible for that trend. The Marlins have gone 16 consecutive games being held to three or fewer runs, and things should not get any easier against Padres lefty Sean Manaea (6-6, 4.76). 

Miami is ranked 30th out of 30 teams with a 69 wRC+ against southpaws and also has the league’s worst wOBA (.262), slugging (.317), and strikeout percentage (28.1%) against left-handed pitching. Miami’s Edward Cabrera (3-1, 2.05) has been solid in his five starts and should keep the Marlins in the game, but Miami’s inability to score runs is the safest bet.

Bet: Miami Marlins UNDER 3.5 Runs (-150 at DraftKings)  

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays RL

Lately, when Baltimore loses, the primary reason is an offense that has trouble scoring runs. Thus, with the Blue Jays as big -225 moneyline favorites, Baltimore’s offense could be in for another long night as it is projected to lose.

Baltimore has totaled 15 runs in its last eight losses. Though the Blue Jays are 20-22 against divisional opponents this year and under .500 against everyone in the AL East except Boston, they have the perfect starting pitcher on the mound to lead them to a big victory.

Alek Manoah’s career numbers at the Rogers Centre are staggering. Manoah is 11-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 19 career home starts, and his 0.85 WHIP is 35 points lower at home than on the road. Those numbers include a 2-0 record with a microscopic 0.47 ERA in three home starts against Baltimore, spanning 19 innings. There is no reason to think Manoah cannot turn in another brilliant start tonight.

Bet: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings)  

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox ML

There may not be a better starting pitching matchup anywhere in the majors this year than the one in this game, as two Cy Young contenders, Justin Verlander (15-3, 1.85) and Dylan Cease (12-5, 1.96), go head-t0-head. 

Usually, when Verlander is on the bump, Houston’s moneyline odds are astronomical. He leads the league in winning percentage, ERA, ERA+ (209), and WHIP (0.860). While Cease is current amid a Major League-record streak of 14 consecutive starts allowing one or fewer earned runs, he has not faced an offense as potent as Houston’s in quite some time. For example, Cease has pitched to a 0.84 ERA in his last seven starts but has not faced an offense in the top-13 in runs in that span.

The Astros are 14-8 in games where they have been favored by -130 odds or shorter and are 6-1 in their last seven such games. In addition, Houston is 20-9 over the previous 29 meetings with Chicago, and the White Sox have won just two of their last six games against teams with winning percentages of .600 or better. Thus, we are jumping at the opportunity to back the Astros and Verlander at a more than reasonable price.

Bet: Houston Astros ML (-125 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks