March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 252-195, +44.31 units (Through Sweet 16 Thursday)
Elite 8 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 252-195, +44.31 units (Through Sweet 16 Thursday)
Elite 8 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Elite 8 Picks & Predictions
Elite 8 Same Game Parlay Picks
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
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2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: UConn vs. Gonzaga
UConn Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Adama Sanogo |
17.3 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
24.9 |
18.4 |
25.9 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
| Jordan Hawkins |
15.1 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
18.6 |
16.2 |
19.7 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
| Tristen Newton |
10.3 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
14.7 |
14.5 |
18.9 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
| Alex Karaban |
9.6 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
14.1 |
11.1 |
15.6 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
| Donovan Clingan |
5.8 |
4.7 |
0.3 |
10.5 |
6.1 |
10.9 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Andre Jackson |
7.8 |
7.3 |
4.5 |
15.1 |
12.3 |
19.6 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
| Joey Calcaterra |
5.4 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
7.1 |
6.5 |
8.1 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
| Nahiem Alleyne |
5.5 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
| Hassan Diarra |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Richie Springs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Samson Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Apostolos Roumoglou |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andrew Hurley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Yarin Hasson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Emmett Hendry |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andre Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Drew Timme |
20.6 |
7.7 |
2.3 |
28.2 |
22.9 |
30.6 |
0.1 |
5.4 |
| Julian Strawther |
15.3 |
6.7 |
1.0 |
22.0 |
16.4 |
23.0 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
| Anton Watson |
11.6 |
6.9 |
1.9 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
20.4 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
| Rasir Bolton |
7.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
9.2 |
9.2 |
10.7 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
| Malachi Smith |
7.3 |
3.3 |
0.9 |
10.6 |
8.2 |
11.4 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
| Nolan Hickman |
6.4 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
8.5 |
8.2 |
10.4 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
| Ben Gregg |
3.0 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
4.9 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
| Hunter Sallis |
3.9 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
6.9 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| Efton Reid |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colby Brooks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dominick Harris |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Abe Eagle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UConn vs. Gonzaga Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
UConn
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Alex Karaban Over 7.5 Points |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
DK |
| Jordan Hawkins Under 16.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Andre Jackson Over 6.5 Rebounds |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Alex Karaban Over 1.5 3Ps |
160 |
1 |
1.6 |
MGM |
| Adama Sanogo Under 8.5 Rebounds |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
FD |
Gonzaga
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Malachi Smith Under 4.5 Rebounds |
-132 |
1.32 |
1 |
FD |
| Malachi Smith Under 8.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
FD |
| Anton Watson Under 7.5 Rebounds |
-114 |
1.14 |
1 |
FD |
| Nolan Hickman Under 7.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
FD |
| Julian Strawther Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Drew Timme Under 2.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
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More Player Prop Bet Picks
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Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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