The WNBA will play its final games before the 17-day midseason break for the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Germany. There won’t be any more WNBA games until September 17, so let’s enjoy these remaining games using the Market-based EV page. My three favorite spots are below.
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Sunday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Angel Reese Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+120 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -101
- Market EV: +11%
Angel Reese is a double-double machine! In fact, she’s added at least 35 points + rebounds + assists in six consecutive games leading up to this one. Her efficiency has dropped recently, but she’s getting over 34 minutes a night over the last 10 games. She’s also added over nine defensive rebounds per game and has contributed at least eight offensive rebounds in each of the last two games.
At NoVig, you can land Reese to earn at least 32 points + rebounds + assists at +120, even though she’s hit this line six consecutive times. That’s an 11% market EV, with the fair value sitting at -101. It’s a top play today!
Jade Melbourne Under 11.5 Points (+135 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +115
- Market EV: +10%
Jade Melbourne has shined offensively over the last couple of games. That said, she’s still only added at least 12 points in 34 percent of her games this season. In fact, Melbourne has averaged below six points per game and has never scored at least 12 points when facing the Los Angeles Sparks. In 22.8 minutes against the Sparks on July 6, she scored 11 points after shooting 57 percent from the field.
Melbourne to score below 11.5 points is at +135 when the fair value is +115. She’s never had 12+ points against the Sparks, and you can get this bet at solid plus-money. This is another WNBA bet to consider for today.
Paige Bueckers Over 6.5 Assists (+133 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +116
- Market EV: +8%
Paige Bueckers just recorded 11 assists in her last game. In fact, she’s earned at least eight assists in two of her last three games and has averaged 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 games. Ultimately, Bueckers has earned at least seven assists against the Connecticut Sun in three of four games played against them. When she gets 35+ minutes a night against the Sun, she delivers.
With a large break ahead, look for Bueckers to get plenty of time on the court, even against the lowly Sun.
Bueckers to add at least seven assists is +133 via NoVig, but +116 is the fair value. That’s a positive expected value of 8%! It’s another top-tier bet to consider for tonight’s WNBA slate.
